Three SF Giants pitching targets that could replace Kevin Gausman in the rotation

The SF Giants were dealt a tough blow as right-handed hurler Kevin Gausman signed a five-year, $110 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. Replacing his production will be a very difficult task, but there are a few targets who might be able to lessen the blow.

Three SF Giants pitching targets that could replace Kevin Gausman in the rotation

Kevin Gausman had a strong season in which he registered a 2.81 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, and a 4.54 SO/W ratio across 192 innings with the Giants. San Francisco set a franchise record with 107 wins in the regular season and they could not have done that without Gausman's production.

They will have to find a way to replicate some of that production, which is going to be a difficult task given that many of the top free agents have already signed. There are still a couple available on the market and one who might be available through a trade.

1. Sonny Gray

Cincinnati Reds right-handed hurler Sonny Gray is on the trade market along with rotation mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle. The Reds will likely seek a significant return for Castillo as he has established himself as a top-of-the-rotation type of arm, whereas Mahle is coming off of a strong season and he has multiple years of control.

That leaves Gray as an arm that the Giants could acquire at a more modest cost. The 32-year-old righty posted a 4.19 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, and a 3.10 SO/W ratio in 26 starts with the Reds in 2021.

These stats do not jump off of the page, but Gray might perform better with a change of scenery. The nine-year veteran generated a 3.44 ERA on the road last season, whereas he struggled to the tune of a 4.89 ERA at home while being unusually prone to the long ball. The Great American Ballpark is one of the more hitter-friendly fields in the game, so a move to a more pitcher-friendly ballpark like Oracle Park should pay dividends.

On the surface, he did not have an impressive season last year. But, he does record a lot of strikeouts while limiting walks, induces ground balls (52.3% career ground ball rate) at a healthy rate, and does well to avoid the sweet spot of the bat (4.7% barrel rate). These are the ingredients that the Giants target in a pitcher, so there is reason to believe that he is a legitimate trade target.

The next question is cost. The Reds set an unusually low precedent earlier in the offseason by allowing veteran lefty Wade Miley to be claimed off of waivers by the Chicago Cubs. The only thing that they got in return was cost savings. Could they be interested in a similar move for Gray?

Gray signed a four-year, $38 million deal before the 2019 season, meaning that his CBT hit is $9.5 million for next season. Miley is set to earn $10 million in 2022, so both are in the same neighborhood in terms of cost. The Reds already let one go, so the bar for a pitcher of Gray's caliber might be unusually low and one that the Giants could easily afford.

Three SF Giants pitching targets that could replace Kevin Gausman in the rotation

2. Carlos Rodón

Carlos Rodón does not have the type of track record of success that Sonny Gray has. With that being said, he flashed plenty of upside in 2021 as he just completed his best season on the mound, registering a 2.37 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 0.957 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, and a solid 5.14 SO/W ratio across 132.2 innings.

This included an American League All-Star nod and a fifth-place finish in the Cy Young voting. Interestingly, the Chicago White Sox did not make an $18.4 million qualifying offer to
Rodón this offseason despite the fact that his production was certainly worthy of it.

The front office was not convinced of his health as he battled a sore arm down the stretch and often pitched on more than five days of rest in the second half of the year. Rodón does have a pretty extensive injury history that includes Tommy John surgery in 2019 and shoulder surgery in 2017, so there are durability concerns.

This is compounded by the fact that he has made over 25 starts just once in his seven-year career and he is still a bit of a mystery. Before the 2021 season, the left-handed hurler posted a 4.14 ERA in six seasons with the White Sox and rarely flashed the type of ability that he demonstrated in 2021. In fact, Rodón was non-tendered by Chicago after he struggled to the tune of an 8.22 ERA in 7.2 frames in 2020.

With all that being said, the 28-year-old hurler is represented by the Boras Corporation and is likely expecting a large payday given that he is entering free agency at an unusually young age. Teams will have to grapple with whether the 2021 campaign was an outlier or a transformation into an elite-level pitcher.

Since the Giants have signed three starters (Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, and Alex Cobb) to relatively modest deals, they are in a position to spend. Are they willing to take the risk and sign
Rodón to a long-term deal? That remains to be seen, but the veteran southpaw has the most upside of any pitcher who remains on the market.