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Three SF Giants pitching targets that could replace Kevin Gausman in the rotation

By Jeff Young |
Cincinnati Reds v Chicago White Sox
Cincinnati Reds v Chicago White Sox / Jonathan Daniel/GettyImages
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The SF Giants were dealt a tough blow as right-handed hurler Kevin Gausman signed a five-year, $110 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. Replacing his production will be a very difficult task, but there are a few targets who might be able to lessen the blow.

Three SF Giants pitching targets that could replace Kevin Gausman in the rotation

Kevin Gausman had a strong season in which he registered a 2.81 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 1.04 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, and a 4.54 SO/W ratio across 192 innings with the Giants. San Francisco set a franchise record with 107 wins in the regular season and they could not have done that without Gausman's production.

They will have to find a way to replicate some of that production, which is going to be a difficult task given that many of the top free agents have already signed. There are still a couple available on the market and one who might be available through a trade.

1. Sonny Gray

Cincinnati Reds right-handed hurler Sonny Gray is on the trade market along with rotation mates Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle. The Reds will likely seek a significant return for Castillo as he has established himself as a top-of-the-rotation type of arm, whereas Mahle is coming off of a strong season and he has multiple years of control.

That leaves Gray as an arm that the Giants could acquire at a more modest cost. The 32-year-old righty posted a 4.19 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.21 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, and a 3.10 SO/W ratio in 26 starts with the Reds in 2021.

These stats do not jump off of the page, but Gray might perform better with a change of scenery. The nine-year veteran generated a 3.44 ERA on the road last season, whereas he struggled to the tune of a 4.89 ERA at home while being unusually prone to the long ball. The Great American Ballpark is one of the more hitter-friendly fields in the game, so a move to a more pitcher-friendly ballpark like Oracle Park should pay dividends.

On the surface, he did not have an impressive season last year. But, he does record a lot of strikeouts while limiting walks, induces ground balls (52.3% career ground ball rate) at a healthy rate, and does well to avoid the sweet spot of the bat (4.7% barrel rate). These are the ingredients that the Giants target in a pitcher, so there is reason to believe that he is a legitimate trade target.

The next question is cost. The Reds set an unusually low precedent earlier in the offseason by allowing veteran lefty Wade Miley to be claimed off of waivers by the Chicago Cubs. The only thing that they got in return was cost savings. Could they be interested in a similar move for Gray?

Gray signed a four-year, $38 million deal before the 2019 season, meaning that his CBT hit is $9.5 million for next season. Miley is set to earn $10 million in 2022, so both are in the same neighborhood in terms of cost. The Reds already let one go, so the bar for a pitcher of Gray's caliber might be unusually low and one that the Giants could easily afford.

Division Series - Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox - Game Four
Division Series - Houston Astros v Chicago White Sox - Game Four / Jonathan Daniel/GettyImages

Three SF Giants pitching targets that could replace Kevin Gausman in the rotation

2. Carlos Rodón

Carlos Rodón does not have the type of track record of success that Sonny Gray has. With that being said, he flashed plenty of upside in 2021 as he just completed his best season on the mound, registering a 2.37 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 0.957 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, and a solid 5.14 SO/W ratio across 132.2 innings.

This included an American League All-Star nod and a fifth-place finish in the Cy Young voting. Interestingly, the Chicago White Sox did not make an $18.4 million qualifying offer to
Rodón this offseason despite the fact that his production was certainly worthy of it.

The front office was not convinced of his health as he battled a sore arm down the stretch and often pitched on more than five days of rest in the second half of the year. Rodón does have a pretty extensive injury history that includes Tommy John surgery in 2019 and shoulder surgery in 2017, so there are durability concerns.

This is compounded by the fact that he has made over 25 starts just once in his seven-year career and he is still a bit of a mystery. Before the 2021 season, the left-handed hurler posted a 4.14 ERA in six seasons with the White Sox and rarely flashed the type of ability that he demonstrated in 2021. In fact, Rodón was non-tendered by Chicago after he struggled to the tune of an 8.22 ERA in 7.2 frames in 2020.

With all that being said, the 28-year-old hurler is represented by the Boras Corporation and is likely expecting a large payday given that he is entering free agency at an unusually young age. Teams will have to grapple with whether the 2021 campaign was an outlier or a transformation into an elite-level pitcher.

Since the Giants have signed three starters (Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, and Alex Cobb) to relatively modest deals, they are in a position to spend. Are they willing to take the risk and sign
Rodón to a long-term deal? That remains to be seen, but the veteran southpaw has the most upside of any pitcher who remains on the market.

Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics
Seattle Mariners v Oakland Athletics / Michael Zagaris/GettyImages

Three SF Giants pitching targets that could replace Kevin Gausman in the rotation

3. Yusei Kikuchi

Yusei Kikuchi is in the same mold of Sonny Gray in that his 2021 numbers do not impress at first, but he does a lot of things that the Giants like in a starting pitcher. Plus, Kikuchi was heavily scouted by the Giants when he was initially posted by the Seibu Lions three years ago.

This front office has proven that the interest in a player does not end when the player signs elsewhere considering that the player is likely to become a free agent again. Could this be the case with Kikuchi?

The left-handed pitcher had a nice season in 2021 as he produced a 4.41 ERA, 4.61 FIP, 1.31 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, and a 2.63 SO/W ratio across 157 innings with the Seattle Mariners. This included an American League All-Star nod that was carried by a 3.48 ERA in the first half, but he struggled to the tune of a 5.98 ERA in the second half.

His 4.41 ERA in 2021 represented a substantial improvement from the 5.39 mark he set in his first two years with the Mariners. That said, these are still below-average numbers. However, he is an innings-eater and the Giants can certainly use that type of pitcher given the durability questions that remain with both Alex Wood and Alex Cobb.

There might be a better pitcher than what Kikuchi's surface-level numbers indicate. His 2.63 SO/W ratio from 2021 suggests that the 30-year-old lefty records plenty of strikeouts while commanding the strikezone well. Furthermore, he induced a ground ball in 48.4 percent of batted balls events last year, so he does typically prevent hitters from generating loft on his pitchers. However, the 11 percent barrel rate he posted indicates that his mistakes tend to get hit hard.

So, Kikuchi's numbers are not that strong at first glance but he does a few things well that typically lead to better results than what he has produced. It has not happened yet for him, but the Giants have had a lot of success in getting the most out of their pitchers.

The veteran lefty is not going to net a contract like the one Carlos Rodón is seeking but he should see a multi-year deal on the open market. With the Giants looking to add one more arm to the rotation, Kikuchi does make some sense, He would not replace Kevin Gausman's production from 2021, but he might be able to replicate Gausman's workload.

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