The Top 30 Prospects Explained

The Rest of the 55 FV and the 50 FVs

When I said that I currently only see Harrison as the only contender against Luciano at this point, I did not mean it to disrespect Luis Matos and Joey Bart, fellow 55 FV prospects. I just feel like I have known the other two prospects enough after a full season that I pretty much expect what their likely outcome is which is both disappointing and stupid at the same time.

I feel like Luis Matos is going to be the Bryan Reynolds of 2022. The guy just flat-out hits but his other tools are more above-average than plus or even elite except his speed. I get the sense that there is not much that Matos could do other than just keep performing against higher levels of competition which is something that I expect from him. There is plenty of talk about Matos having plus raw power but after reading reports that his maximum exit velocity last season was 111 MPH, it's still more towards above-average than plus at the very best. And looking at Matos' offseason progress in social media, it did not look like he added bulk to even think of him sniffing the maximum exit velocities and average exit velocities that the likes of Jairo Pomares and Luciano can achieve daily. That is just why I can't put him in the likes of Harrison and Luciano. Yes, he can be an All-Star like Reynolds if he does not change his approach because we have seen Reynolds not change his approach and still be an All-Star. However, can Matos reach the ceilings of both Luciano and Harrison? I am currently leaning towards no. Nonetheless, let's hope that Zaidi and company will not trade him and make them regret their decision.

With the case of Bart, it's just a classic case of prospect fatigue. Big Bart made his big-league debut in 2020 but is still prospect-eligible heading towards the 2022 season which ultimately has him make fans continue to remember his initial big-league stint even though he's improved on both offense and defense last season in Sacramento. There is not much explanation needed here as he will be the favorite to start at catcher for the big-league club in 2022 although I expect that the coaches will make the right decision and gradually increase his workload slowly. I expect them to bring along a veteran free-agent catcher although the front office's choices are pretty narrow so it's more likely that they will bring in via a trade for a PTBNL. The bar for catchers is so low that if Bart trots out a .240 batting average and 15 home runs, I consider that as a successful season for him.

Now that the 55 FV prospects are out of the way, it's time to discuss the two 50 FV prospects, and both are outfielders. Heliot Ramos and Jairo Pomares have completely different yet similar playstyles that are both alluring and concerning at the same time.

Some are ready to put Pomares ahead of Ramos at this stage and that is because when you really look at it, Ramos struggled to put exceptional numbers (or a wRC+ above 125 and an OPS below .800) since he was in San Jose in 2019. Even during that time, there are already concerns about his strikeout rate. I mean for a well-regarded guy, he has yet to put it all together with the bat for the past two years now. However, he's held his own against prospects who are at least three years old than him and it's better to peak in the big leagues than in the Minors.

Pomares is similar to Ramos with their strikeout rate. Both are aggressive in two-strike counts and pitchers took advantage of that aggression. However, Pomares has a better feel for the barrel, a more rhythmic swing that maximizes his innate feel that reminds me of Pablo Sandoval. The thing that separates Ramos and Pomares is their defense. Ramos has shown last season that he can handle center field pretty well especially for a guy his size. Pomares is only okay in the corner outfield where he is not a liability is just not going to cut it for me because if ever his bad habits at the batter's box do not get corrected, he has little value because of his subpar defense.

It's a volatile but explosive offensive profile nestled in a fringy corner outfield defensive profile versus a pretty vanilla but safe and decently explosive offensive profile nestled in a non-zero chance of sticking in center field profile. I would choose the player who can stick up the middle and that's Ramos because even if he won't reach his offensive peak, he can still provide value with his defense. Those little things are deal-breakers when comparing players playing in similar positions.

The 45 FVs and Relief Pitcher Value Talk

It is now time for the prospects in the 45 FV range. These are the prospects that have everyday potential or more but are not quite ready to join the prestigious 50 FV. These are (in order) Will Bednar, Aeverson Arteaga, Casey Schmitt, Matt Mikulski, Ryan Murphy, Adrian Sugastey, Camilo Doval, and Sean Hjelle.

Leading off with Camilo Doval because relievers were not considered on the final update of 2021 rankings because relievers are the most versatile demographic among all positions. If a starting pitcher fails, pitching in the bullpen is the fallback option. A catcher who is bad at playing defense? Never worry because first base is an option. A shortstop who is too slow for the position? There is third base, second base, or the corner outfield. For relievers? There is no fallback. Relievers are like left fielders, second basemen, and first basemen, but the risk associated with pitchers makes pitching in relief more volatile than the other fallback options in the baseball field.

However, after plenty of deliberation, adding them to the list once again is the correct choice. Listing them separately felt like a blessing and a curse. A blessing because they can make the big leagues even as unranked or unheralded prospects because of their unique nature, and a curse because it felt unfair to list them separately because they are prospects after all.

After the 2021 season, Doval should be the highest-listed full-time relief prospect in the organization after the stellar job that he did for the Giants at the end of the season. It's just a matter of where to have him. The only pitchers that came to my mind that should be ahead of Doval are the pitchers who have the best chance of sticking in a big-league rotation.

Three pitchers came to mind right away: Bednar, Mikulski, and Murphy, and that is pretty much it. Sean Hjelle is still valued on the ranking and his unique profile should allow him to reach the big leagues. However, his uniqueness is a better fit in the bullpen rather than in the rotation, as his stuff is more solid-average. He could be dominant in the bullpen like Doval and Tyler Rogers, where hitters will only see him once and completely feel his funk.

After thinking of starting pitching options, position players who project to provide similar value to Doval were up next in the discussion. Those players are Arteaga, Schmitt, and Sugastey. With six prospects ahead of him and a prospect behind him, that firmly put Doval at 13 and Hjelle at 14.

The first one in the discussion is Will Bednar. He earned to be at top of the 45 FV class because of his performance in the College World Series and he was considered being the second-best pitcher in the entire tournament behind only number two overall pick Jack Leiter. His fastball and slider were dominant. However, several concerns resulted in him being graded as a 45 FV prospect.

The first is that his fastball did not look impressive when he pitched in San Jose. He only sits in the low-90s with his fastball with underwhelming life rather than the overpowering mid-90s gas that he threw in the CWS. The second is that his changeup did not look impressive in college. There were reports that his changeup induced a high number of whiffs, but it was more likely due to pitch usage rather than pitch quality. His curveball is a better pitch than his changeup, but it is only average at best.

A good friend and fellow Giants prospects writer Roger Munter brought up the similarities between Bednar and former Giants' first-round pick, Chris Stratton. If Bednar indeed will follow the career path of Stratton, it does not sound very promising.

The next two prospects that are ranked behind Bednar are defensive-minded position players. The lesser risk associated with position players was the biggest factor for ranking the foursome of Arteaga, Mikulski, Murphy, and Schmitt. Arteaga and Schmitt are stellar defenders in their respective positions, with Schmitt being more mature and better than Arteaga. However, Arteaga plays the toughest position in the infield (except for catcher) while Schmitt plays the second-toughest.

Even if both players provide 0 WAR with their bat which currently is their most likely outcome, their defense should be good enough to provide 1.5-2 WAR, and that folks, is a straight-up 45 FV value. If both could provide positive WAR offensively, then they will sniff up 50 FV value. Arteaga projects as an Orlando Arcia-type player while Schmitt is a middle-class or even a clone of Matt Chapman at the hot corner.

The next two pitchers currently have the biggest chance of pitching in a starting rotation out of the rest of the pitching prospects, as mentioned earlier. Matt Mikulski’s mechanics scream more of a reliever than a starter, but his four-pitch repertoire is fit for a legitimate starting pitcher. Moreso, his highly deceptive mechanics, which are hard to time, show the ball as late as possible, and from a low release height allow his pitches to play better.

A left-hander that can reach 98 MPH with his fastball does not grow on trees, let alone also have three out pitches alongside the high velocity. What Mikulski lacks is a track record of strike-throwing with his refined motion and his 2022 season should answer the debate of whether he is a better fit in the rotation or the bullpen.

Murphy is a pitcher that stood out as early as late May last season when his numbers match the stuff upon doing film study. Murphy is the definition of a pitchability righty with solid stuff across the board. The only concern entering this season is whether his solid stuff will play in the high-Minors and that could only be answered by pitching in the high-Minors. Murphy has worked hard in the off-season to remove that concern by refining his pitching motion and his secondaries. This is the year for Murphy to prove that last season is not a fluke.

That only leaves one 45 FV prospect. Sugastey was the highest-ranked prospect that belonged in the 2019 IFA class in the 2021 Primer because of his impressive hitting ability while playing the toughest position on defense. The belief in the bat was justified after the Panamanian posted the highest batting average among all qualified hitters in Rookie ball.

However, a couple of concerns arose that ultimately resulted in him getting surpassed by his fellow 2019 IFA classmate Aeverson Arteaga. The first is the slight concern with his athleticism as he gets older. The second is that his bat speed is more solid than explosive, though his bat control is impressive for a teenager. If Sugastey can finally tap to his raw power consistently without sacrificing his natural hitting ability, he should only continue to rise the ranks.

40 FV Prospects Inside The Top 20

This is where the depth of the farm system shines the brightest. After evaluating every Giants’ prospect in the roster pages online, there are at least 40 prospects who were graded or close to being graded as 40 FV. That means aside from the prospects already covered above, at least ⅙ of the entire farm system has the potential to reach the big leagues no matter how small the possibility is.

That also means that anyone with a 40 FV grade included in the Top 30 can be replaced by a 40 FV graded prospect outside the rankings. However, kicking out any 40 FV prospect in the top 20 would be a massive disappointment.

The impressive depth of the system holds for a lot of relievers in the system and, boy, there are a lot of fun ones out there starting with both Nick Swiney and Randy Rodriguez. The two topped the 40 FV list, but here we are. It is not because they are the best relievers but they are relievers that have the best shot of ending up as a big-leaguer which is pretty weird especially for Rodriguez who primarily pitched in relief last season in San Jose.

When the front office remarked that Rodriguez could be put in a rotation role in 2022, it sounded exciting and suspicious at the same time. Rodriguez has three pitches that could all play in a rotation role with enough control to show for. Swiney is currently a starter but could eventually shift in a relief role because of how effective his changeup is and how ineffective his fastball is. It would not be a bad idea if the Giants decide to rush Swiney through the Minors because his changeup is already big-league ready.

Brett Auerbach is ranked after not only because of his impressive play last season but also by his evolution on both sides of the ball during the season. When he was in San Jose, he was his usual self: a high-level contact hitter with the ability who can get on base via base on balls while holding his strikeouts in check. Then suddenly, when he was promoted to Eugene, the coaches asked Auerbach to become more aggressive and hit for more power, which differed completely from what he did in San Jose. Not only did he completely change his approach mid-season, but he did it very well, transforming to a power hitter resulting in a much higher home run rate. It had its consequences though, as his batting average and walk rate dipped while the strikeout rate went up.

That kind of mid-season evolution is very impressive. It shows his ability to absorb instruction and apply it in games. Oh, he's also doing it while playing six positions on the baseball field at a high level. Now, doing it against high-Minors pitching this season can only be answered by playing. However, if there is a guy who can adjust and adapt, it's Auerbach. It is rare to see this kind of adaptability, especially coming from an NDFA. An impressive job by the Giants identifying, scouting and adding him to the organization.

It is now back to the pitching side and Eric Silva is ranked after Auerbach. Silva stood out early in the 2021 Draft film study together with Jake Tillinghast. Silva only impressed the more he pitched, and it brought plenty of delight when San Francisco drafted him in the fourth round. His superb athleticism on the mound and present ability to fill the strike zone pop out the screen. His motion is clean, and he generates so much energy off the ground with the way he loads up his back leg and not with his shoulders and elbow. It will be interesting how the Giants tackle Silva’s development because the organization is into the concept of seam-shifted wake and he presently shows the elements of a late dropping sinker and a hard, sweeping slider.

Now, the final two prospects in the top 20 are interesting. Diego Rincones was lights out in Eugene and was even better when he got promoted to Richmond. His swing is unique in a way that it's very rotational like someone spun a pole and it is very top-hand heavy. His defense is also in question. Interestingly, the Giants’ front office did not add him to the 40-man roster after having one of the best seasons from a Giants hitting prospect last season and proved his worth in Double-A over a pitcher who only pitched in Low-A. That decision ultimately led Rincones to slide down the rankings.

The final prospect in the top 20 is a notorious one. His name is Patrick Bailey. Bailey's stock plummeted not because of injury but because of performance. The whole case against Bailey was written in the Bart vs. Bailey post last December, but to keep it short, Bailey did not impress plenty with the way he handled his 2021 season. Sure, he finished strong in San Jose. But the expectation that is set for him with the way the Giants handled him right after picking him in the first round last year is that he should have finished strong in Richmond, not San Jose.

His career is not off the rails yet, far from it in fact because of his defense behind the plate, which is still good. However, the bat must wake up in the upcoming season to gain his stock back or he will be a disappointment of a pick. To put things in perspective, an NDFA in the same draft class has already surpassed him.

40 FV: The Rest Of The Top 30

The enviable depth of the farm system continues with the rest of the top 30 comprising ten 40 FV prospects. It is here that every single prospect mentioned can be replaced by any prospect outside of the rankings with a 40 FV. These ten prospects were chosen because of how they impressed last season, and how the organization viewed them based on their moves.

The first two prospects as the rankings rolled to the 20s are both high-Minors relievers: R.J. Dabovich and Kervin Castro. It was tough to separate the two as both have the same operation on the mound but with completely different body sizes. Both have a vertical-oriented approach on the mound by throwing high fastballs and low, 12-6 curveballs. Dabovich's curveball has more sweep than Castro's, but both can throw their pitches in the strike zone at a high clip and can even command their pitches. They are up here in the low-20s as they are almost ready to help the big-league club in 2022 (Castro is ready to help the big-league club now) and should be able to graduate off the list as soon as possible and are ranked higher than the other pitchers on the list who only pitched to as high as Low-A ball.

After the two high-Minors relievers come two position players: Ismael Munguia and Ryan Reckley. Munguia is probably ranked higher here than many people because his hitting ability, speed, defense, and infectious energy should bode well for his chances of reaching the Majors. His ceiling is not exactly high (he is a utility-type role at best) but he deserves more love than what the big media sites give him, which is only very little. Reckley's just signed about a month ago, but the athleticism is very alluring and he will be an exciting prospect to follow in the coming years.

Next comes two starters in San Jose last year: Carson Ragsdale and Prelander Berroa. The way Giants handled Ragsdale is interesting. He is entering his age-23 season, which is exactly ideal, although the mileage in his arm might be a couple of years younger. It came as a surprise knowing that his vertical approach angle is just average while Sean Hjelle is at the extreme end of the spectrum, even though Ragsdale is just a couple of inches shorter than the 6'11" Hjelle while also having a higher arm slot. That makes his pitches playing worse than intended as he got hit around far too often in a level that he should have dominated.

Now he's entering his age-24 season and if the Giants believe in his stuff, they will transition him to the bullpen and aggressively promote him like what they did with Dabovich although Dabovich was a converted reliever already in college while Ragsdale was a starter.

Berroa is interesting as well as he was dominant during July but faltered from August until the end of the season. He was dominant early on because his fastball control was crisp and overpowering, but his breaking ball often hung in the upper half of the strike zone way too often for comfort. He made some strides during his August slump to locate his slider down in the zone better, but his fastball control deteriorated, which was most likely a sign of fatigue. Excited to see him continue his journey in 2022.

The next prospect after Berroa is someone that should still be in the top 30 and that is Ricardo Genoves. He was not effective in Eugene in terms of swinging the bat, but he still showed his good feel for the strike zone. The deal-breaker for having Bailey ahead of him is the regression in Genoves' defense. Sure, he is a great framer and still has a strong arm, but his blocking and allowing too many passed balls are issues that are tied to his athleticism and he is not exactly the best of athletes.

The Giants showed their hand in the middle of the last season when they put Genoves ahead of Bailey in the pecking order (promoted Genoves and demoted Bailey) and that could still be true as we enter the 2022 season but catchers only need to be good defenders with exemplary intangibles to make it to the big leagues. Based on that criterion, Bailey has a better shot of making the big leagues than Genoves.

It’s anyone’s game at this point after Genoves. An argument could be made on who to have with the final three spots in the top 30, but Genoves at 27 is the gatekeeper in terms of who should deserve to be in the rankings. With that, three prospects came to mind who have the potential to make a big-time jump in my rankings if they play well in a full season.

First of which is Manuel Mercedes. It is probably too early to call for a Mercedes breakout because the things that he needed to work on, particularly with his delivery, need at least a season before being fully realized. However, a pitcher only needs that one crucial change to break out, and if Mercedes breaks out, the potential is huge. We are talking about a potential ace.

The final two are outfielders who needed only one thing to soar through the rankings but are completely different. For Hunter Bishop, health is the only thing that he needed. The explosive athleticism, the sound strike-zone discipline, and the power are still present. If he can stay healthy and perform like what he is capable of, he will shoot up this list faster than anyone might think.

For Grant McCray, it's an improved approach at the plate. McCray is a promising young talent based on his San Jose film last season. He opened the eyes of many when he had an exit velocity of 114 MPH in his best swing. That is as good as the best power hitters in the farm system like Luciano, Pomares, and Sean Roby. The problem is that he might shoot for the moon a bit too often and that left him susceptible in two-strike swing-throughs. If he can improve his two-strike approach, there's a big chance for McCray to break out because he has at least four above-average raw tools (raw power, speed, arm strength, defense).