The recipe for success for the SF Giants has to be different than their rivals
The SF Giants need to pivot to taking a defense and pitching focus which would make them a formidable opponent.
One mistake the Giants could make throughout the remainder of the offseason is feeling like they must add position-player power to have a hope against the Dodgers all the while the reverse may be true. Giving Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger too much money and too many years won't solve any problems for the Giants. They would remain an average or slightly better offense and still have a hole at SP. The more prudent strategy would be to invest very heavily in starting pitchers.
The recipe for success for the SF Giants has to be different than their rivals
There are still plenty of good starting-pitching options left on the open market. If would behoove them to strike quickly after missing out on Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
1. Blake Snell
Blake Snell is the reigning N.L. Cy Young Award winner has a positive connection with Bob Melvin and has a strong desire to stay on the West Coast. The Dodgers are likely done handing out big contracts leaving the Giants as the biggest remaining market.
Snell is projected to receive a 5-year, $125 million with an AAV of $25 million. That AAV would be 11th among starting pitchers across MLB. Snell is projected for a 3.3 WAR in 2024, .1 less than Yamamoto before adjusting for Oracle Park which would boost Snell's projection.
Since 2018, only nine pitchers have more cumulative WAR than Snell and only Jacob deGrom and Max Fried have done so with fewer innings pitched. Snell would be a fantastic investment for the Giants and give them a co-ace with Logan Webb.
2. Shōta Imanaga
Shōta Imanaga should be the second pitching investment the Giants make this off-season. Imanaga is projected for a 2.6 WAR in 2024. Imanaga has managed an ERA below 3.00, a WHIP below 1.1, and has pitched in at least 149 innings in every season since 2021.
Imanaga is expected to sign for approximately 5 years, $85 million with a $17 million AAV. That AAV would be 30th among SPs in MLB. Imanaga struck out more batters than Yamamoto in the NPB with a crazy 29.4% K% and an excellent 4% BB%. The biggest issue for Imanaga was the HR ball, something that should automatically get better in the expansive Oracle Park.
It isn't out of the realm of possibility that Imanaga ends up being a better pitcher than Yamamoto and if Imanaga were to struggle as a starter his elite stuff would transition to being an elite reliever.
3. Clayton Kershaw
It is unlikely, but this would be a fun idea/ It would be spiteful. No doubt about it. That said, it isn't unfeasible and makes a certain amount of sense for the Giants. Alex Cobb is set to miss the first half of the 2024 season, Anthony DeSclafani has been perennially injured, and the remaining options are unproven rookies.
Even if the Giants were to acquire Snell and Imanaga that would leave the 4th and 5th SP spots open. Kershaw represents a one-year, high AAV deal where come August the Giants have Logan Webb, Snell, Imanaga, Kershaw, and Cobb as their five starters with their young guys in the bullpen or AAA depth.
Furthermore, it would be increasingly likely that someone in the rotation (likely more than one) will get hurt considering the age of this rotation which should give DeSclafani and all the young guys plenty of opportunities to perform. The case for Kershaw is simple. Even with all of the injuries over the recent years Kershaw still managed at least 2 WAR in every full season since 2009! He is slated to miss the first half of the season, but could be a nice second-half boost that the Giants need.
The recipe for success for the SF Giants has to be different than their rivals
The Giants should acquire a boatload of pitchers and create a super-rotation to hold down the Dodgers. However, That is not the only move they need to make. They need to invest in defense and contact. The Giants finished 2023 with the 6th highest K%, 3rd lowest batting average, and the fewest stolen bases in MLB. The next-lowest team in stolen bases had 15 more than the Giants! Strides have already been made with the acquisition of Jung Hoo Lee but there are more players out there that could perfect this strategy.
Amed Rosario
One player the Giants could acquire in this new direction is Amed Rosario. In 2024, Rosario is projected for a .275 BA, 14-15 SB, and as a plus defender at 2B. The last few seasons have shown Rosario to be a poor defender at SS but is now being projected as a 2B moving forward where he is expected to be a plus defender.
Furthermore, he is projected for a K% of just 17.7% and he works out to a 96 wRC+ which is perfectly in line with the league average for 2B. Despite the league-average bat, he is projected for a 2.3 WAR. Rosario would represent an influx of speed, a high contact rate, and a plus defender at 2B with the capability to play all around the infield. The Giants should strongly consider Rosario for a super-utility role.
Tyler Fitzgerald
Yes, he is currently on the Giants roster but consider this a plea for him to start the season with the big league team. While Fitzgerald won't help solve the strikeout problem (29.4% K% in 2023) he will be a massive help in the defense and speed department.
Fangraphs gives Fitzgerald a 55 grade speed and 50 grade defense both of which are above average. In 10 games in SF, he managed two stolen bases. In 102 games in Sacramento, he had 29 stolen bases. Furthermore, he grades out in the 99th percentile in sprint speed. Something the Giants haven't had in a very long time.
Fitzgerald represents 30 SB-upside. The Giants haven't had a 30 SB season since Dave Roberts in 2007!!! Furthermore, Fitzgerald has spent time at 2B, 3B, SS, and CF. He may struggle early as he adjusts to the speed of MLB but speed and defense will always play and Tyler Fitzgerald has an abundance of both.
The Giants must take a long look at the strategy they are about to take with the remainder of free agency. Attempting to go toe to toe with the Dodgers won't work. The Giants are better off taking advantage of their pitcher-friendly ballpark by investing in pitching and defense. The Giants aren't going to beat the Dodgers thinking like them. The only way to beat a team like the Dodgers is to force them to play the game your way.