SF Giants: The Bart vs. Bailey Debate After The 2021 Season

It was a quiet June 10th, 2020 when the SF Giants community received a bombshell from the Zaidi and co. as addressed by the commissioner: with the 13th pick of the 2020 MLB Draft, the San Francisco Giants select Patrick Bailey, a catcher from North Carolina State University. For months leading up to the draft, there was a lot of noise surrounding another catcher by the name of Tyler Soderstrom. However, most people view Soderstrom as someone who will move out of the squat eventually as the Giants have already drafted Joey Bart with the second overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft as the heir to the now-retired Buster Posey. Bailey primarily played behind the plate in college and the natural byproduct of the selection is the debate about who is the real their to Posey between Bart and Bailey.

SF Giants: The Bart vs. Bailey Debate After The 2021 Season

Bart enjoyed a stellar 2019 campaign in the Minors and was considered to be the second-best catching prospect in all of baseball behind only Adley Rutschman and is generally considered a top 40 prospect at the time the Giants made the Bailey selection. After the 2020 season, however, the debate on who is the catcher of the future went even louder after Bart looked completely unprepared in a disappointing 2020 campaign with the big league club while Bailey was drawing out positive reviews in the alternate site in Sacramento in the pandemic-shortened season. After the 2021 season though, where does the grand debate stand? Is there a clear-cut favorite or is it still neck and neck?

SF Giants: The Bart vs. Bailey Debate After The 2021 Season

Bart's 2021 Season

After a rough 2020 season, the Giants decided to put Bart to Triple-A Sacramento as he clearly needed more seasoning in the Minors. Before Bart was designated to the Minors, he actually played in a doubleheader against the Rockies where he had one at-bat as a pinch-hitter and popped out to the second baseman. Bart exploded out of the gate with a .378 average and a 1.095 OPS with three home runs. However, regression is bound to happen as he had a .500 BABIP and a 28.6% strikeout rate. Bart did fall off a bit but after 35 games, he was still batting .338 with .981 OPS and eight home runs.

When the Giants desperately needed a catcher in their big-league squad, Bart was the next-man-up and played a full game on July 10th where he went 2-5, both of which were singles, an RBI, and two strikeouts. Bart was sent back to Sacramento after the game and was doing decent with a .759 OPS but he would miss a good chunk of August and a little bit of time in September due to a groin strain and a concussion, respectively. Bart would lose the early-season momentum because of the missed time as he only hit .224 and a .551 OPS in 17 games after he came back from the groin strain. Overall, Bart posted a .294 batting average with 15 doubles, 10 homers, and a .827 OPS. His 7.5% walk rate is the second-highest that he posted in the Minors but his 29.4% strikeout rate was the highest of his Minor League career.

Based on the film study, what I saw was a mix of 2019 and 2020 Bart. His defense has been a bit of an issue in the shortened season, particularly with his receiving as he looked uncomfortable in terms of catching the stuff of the big-league pitching staff. What I saw this year with his defense is what I saw a couple of years ago: a commanding yet calm presence behind the dish, almost cotton-like softness with his framing, his solid but very accurate arm nabbing hitters on snap throws and stolen base attempts (32.6% caught stealing rate), and his sound blocking technique (only six total errors all season to the tune of a .991 fielding percentage). The power is definitely there with his swing just like in 2019 (17.9% HR/FB rate this year) and has largely kept the ball on the air (career-low 41.1% groundball rate and career-high 25.6% line-drive rate) but his high swing and miss tendency might be here to stay (13.6% swinging-strike rate).

SF Giants: The Bart vs. Bailey Debate After The 2021 Season

The Verdict

Before the 2021 season started, I had Bart ranked ahead of Bailey in terms of Future Value or FV (I have Bart at 55 FV with Bailey at 45 FV) so it is pretty clear who has the advantage. After the season, I still have Bart at 55 FV while Bailey dropped to 40 FV. My big issue against Bailey is how he came to this season after receiving plenty of love and attention from the front office and the coaching staff by being in the alternate site just a month after he was drafted. The SF Giants deservedly placed Bailey to Eugene as a reward for the positive response in the alternate site. However, Bailey rewarded the Giants by scuffling on both sides of the ball looking nowhere near like the prospect that was expected to make a jump. While it was exciting to see him pop off San Jose at the end of the season, the expectation is that he would have been in Richmond at the end of the season, not in San Jose.

There was a clear preference in the middle of the season when Genoves was called up to Eugene and people thought that Bailey might be promoted to Richmond even though he's scuffled at that point but we knew that that was not the case. When Genoves got called up to Eugene, he was considered to be the most polished hitter in the San Jose lineup and certainly the readiest to make the jump (.338 average and .992 OPS in San Jose) so if ever Bailey got demoted, a Genoves-like performance was the likeliest outcome and we at the end of the season that it was indeed the case.

On the other hand, Bart clearly proved early this season that he has put the 2020 season well in the rear-view mirror with a scorching first half of the season. He's looked the same old Joey Bart that we knew and loved in the years past. The defense was there, leadership and pose were there, the pop was there. He's also shown that while he will pile up the strikeouts, he has shown that he can also be a hitter for average while also showing the improving ability to rack up the walks. The only thing that hurt Bart was literally him getting hurt on two separate occasions. It's never right to place the injury-prone label on Bart as all catchers are never fully healthy heading to the second half of the season. Yes, the strikeout issues are there. There will always be the issue regarding the inner-third of the plate as his swing works best when it gets long. In my opinion, he's shown improved discipline in the inner third but it will never be his strength and Bart knows it, in my opinion.

What is more important for a catcher, in my opinion, is his defense and his on-field intellect. Bart looked significantly better than Bailey in terms of the fundamentals this season, giving Bart a better shot at sticking in the position long-term. Bart has also shown better pop against pitchers with big-league experience than Bailey who only showed his pop against worse pitching in a better hitting environment. At this point, it should not be a question of who has the edge heading to the 2022 season. Bart projects to be the starting catcher of the San Francisco Giants after having a full season of AAA experience. Bailey projects to once again play in Eugene but there is a possibility that they will be aggressive once again and place him in Richmond. However, Bailey needs to show up in camp looking hungry as ever to be the best ballplayer that he can be and not show up looking sluggish once again. If he does show up sluggish, Giants fans should not turn a blind eye to it anymore.

Winner (so far): Joey Bart by a landslide