SF Giants pitching prospects rundown (5/7 - 5/13)

Make sure to revisit our weekly SF Giants prospect rundowns to keep up with each of the organization’s minor-league affiliates.

SF Giants pitching prospects rundown (5/7 - 5/13)

If you do not feel well acclimated to the prospects throughout the farm system, you might want to revisit this year's Prospect Week article (specifically the SF Giants 2022 prospects depth chart) or purchase the 2022 SF Giants Prospects Primer filled with scouting reports of 150 San Francisco Giants prospects from the best of the best to the unheard-of prospects. If you’re just interested in the biggest names, then the monthly updated 2022 Top 30 Prospects is just what you need.

River Cats Pitching Prospects

Notable Performers

Mauricio Llovera: 2 G, 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 3 K, 0.00 ERA
Joey Marciano: 3 G (1 SV), 4.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R (0 ER), 3 BB, 4 K, 0.00 ERA

Let's start off with the River Cats and the stellar job that Mauricio Llovera has done out of the bullpen so far this season. Llovera has begun the 2022 season by throwing 12.2 scoreless innings of five-hit ball with only two walks allowed (one of which is intentional) and has struck out 17 batters. Llovera's near-five-foot release height gives his fastball that touches 98 MPH a good plane at the top of the zone and the sinker has shown potential below the zone with its good horizontal movement. His slider has late movement that tunnels well with his fastball. It's easy to envision Llovera making it back to the big leagues this season.

Joey Marciano is having himself a nice season with the River Cats with a 1.20 ERA though it comes with a lot of caveats. The first is his career-high 14.5% walk rate and a career-low 21% strikeout rate. Yes, the sinker can touch the high-90s with an above-average spin rate but he's having trouble finishing hitters off leading to plenty of traffic on the bases. Also, there is a distinct difference in terms of his fastball and slider release points that hitters could pick up if they are good at it. All signs point to a regression in the performance in the near future but Marciano has the ability to combat it.

As a side note, it's nice that they finally correctly recognized Sean Hjelle's slider as a knuckle curve.

I'll round out the River Cats rundown by mentioning a few pitching prospects in short bursts. Raynel Espinal's outing might not be pretty this week but he has some traits that are very desirable like his near-five-foot release height and his good fastball-slider combo. Speaking of combo, did you know that Patrick Ruotolo has the fourth-highest strikeout rate strikeout rate out of all Giants pitching prospects while having the lowest walk rate among the top five? I bet you did not, so now you know. On the other hand, Kervin Castro's walk rate ballooned to 31%, the highest in the entire farm system? He's allowed a walk in seven straight appearances which is not doing favors to his prospect stock.

SF Giants pitching prospects rundown (5/7 - 5/13)

Emeralds Pitching Prospects

Notable Performers

Wil Jensen: 1 G (1 GS), 3 IP, 1 H, 1 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 7 K
Clay Helvey: 1 G, 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K, 0.00 ERA
Prelander Berroa: 1 G (1 GS), 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 4 K, 0.00 ERA

Eugene's games have been either delayed, postponed, or just canceled outright because of the absolutely awful weather in the Pacific Northwest over the past month and a half. It makes it difficult for players to get momentum, for evaluators to erm, evaluate, and for fans to enjoy the games when raincoats are necessary.

Wil Jensen is once again off to another strong start to a season, but this time a year older and a level higher. What I always liked about Jensen is his ability to not give up walks (6%) despite having a below average strike rate (61%). Jensen is simply making good pitches in hitter's counts and making hitters chase in pitcher's counts. That has resulted to his strong 34% strikeout rate and a 2.92 ERA with a corresponding 2.67 xFIP. Jensen is you prototypical crafty pitcher who can fill the zone with decent stuff where he's worked hard to turn his slider into an out pitch and his fastball can touch 95 MPH.

The Giants front office have added a ton of relief prospects that have non-zero chance of making it to the big leagues and Clay Helvey is one of them. Helvey was dominant this week with all of his outs came via the strikeout. His 4.15 ERA might be a mirage as his WHIP is only at 0.92 and he has struck out 40% of the batters that he faced while keeping his walk rate at a decent 10.9%. Helvey has a slider that flashes above-average to plus at its best and the fastball can reach up to the mid-90s. He's been a strikeout machine out of the bullpen last year in San Jose and he's been a strikeout machine this year as well for Eugene.

Let's end the Eugene rundown with a discussion on the trade that sent Prelander Berroa to the Mariners for Donovan Walton. Most of the initial reactions were mixed as the general vibe was that they sent a talented pitcher like Berroa for someone who is relatively unknown and has struggled to produce in the big leagues when counted on for. I had a similar reaction but I kind of see why the Giants did it. Yes, Berroa is talented but there's pretty much the writing on the wall for him. He had a 0.68 ERA across four starts but the walk rate has been pretty much below-average and this season is no different with a 12.6% rate and I understand if the Giants are not exactly in on it because if we think that Berroa will likely be a bullpen piece, there's a plethora of strong relief options in the farm system right now with better strike-throwing and a more consistent breaking ball than Berroa. The changeup has not developed into a pitch that would have Berroa be a legitimate rotation piece so the future is definitely in the pen. It's a sad thing to think but that's just how the cookie crumbles sometimes.

SF Giants pitching prospects rundown (5/7 - 5/13)

SJ Giants Pitching Prospects

Notable Performances

Will Bednar: 1 G (1 GS), 3 IP, 3 H, 1 R (1 ER), 2 HBP, 2 BB, 2 K, 3.00 ERA
Matt Mikulski: 1 G (1 GS), 5 IP, 3 H, 1 R (1 ER), 2 HBP, 0 BB, 7 K, 1.80 ERA
Keaton Winn: 2 G (2 GS), 6.2 IP, 5 H, 4 R (3 ER), 1 HBP, 1 BB, 9 K, 4.05 ERA
Jose Cruz: 1 G, 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K, 0.00 ERA

Will Bednar is having a very weird first full professional season. You see his 2.28 ERA and you can concur that he is having a very good season but there is a lot of nuances involved that in my opinion makes the ERA a bit of a mirage. Bednar has hit as many batters as he allowed hits (nine) and he's walked one more batter than he's allowed a hit (ten). He's allowed seven walks in his last three starts (15% walk rate) which showed that his strike-throwing has been an issue as of recently which is far from his usual self. His BABIP this season is a minuscule .130 which tells us that he is getting away unscathed a lot of times and he's rising to the occasion when his back is against the wall. He's making it work though with his 28.4% strikeout rate and a 17.4% swinging-strike rate. It's good that he shows his grit, the swing and miss ability, particularly with his slider, and the clutch gene but he should dominate and his 5.18 xFIP tells us that a poor Bednar performance is a matter of 'when' and not 'if ever'.

Like Bednar, Matt Mikulski is having a very weird 2022 season as well. Let's look beyond the 4.37 ERA. The biggest takeaway from Mikulski's performance this season is that he's sacrificed velocity to be in the strike zone more consistently and the numbers proved it (2.8 BB/9 in San Jose compared to 3.6 BB/9 last year in college). The fastball that once touched 97 MPH last year has parked in the 90-94 MPH range in San Jose. He's also been noticeably effective against righties than lefties (.706 OPS versus lefties compared to .921 OPS versus righties) even though it looked like his changeup regressed in terms of quality. The slider has been less consistent as well though at its best flashed late break down and in on the righties but it's been more of a pretty flat pitch with only little break when in the zone. Mikulski makes up for the lesser stuff by being one of the best fielding pitchers in the farm system as well as having a plethora of nasty pickoff moves. At the end of the day though, it's the stuff that matters and Mikulski's stuff waned a bit in pro ball in my opinion and has been surpassed by his fellow draftees due it while also having a similar or better strike-throwing ability.

I am probably the only person who gets excited with a pitcher who is already 24 years old with a 5.94 ERA in San Jose because I mean, a 5.94 ERA as a 24 year-old pitching in Low-A should not be exciting. But I am excited on Keaton Winn. Winn has the quintessential late-bloomer traits. Drafted in the fifth round of 2018, Winn has not pitched over the last two years. During that time though, he's worked on getting stronger that resulted from a guy with a low-90s fastball with middling secondaries to a guy with a fastball that touches 100 MPH and a pretty nasty splitter and slider when it's on. Winn flashed the ability to spot his fastball in the zone but it's more control than command but for someone who throws in the high-90s, that's acceptable enough. Winn is getting time in the rotation as he is piling on the workload but he projects as a nasty reliever with him sitting in the 98-101 MPH range with a wicked splitter.

Capping off the San Jose rundown is the always interesting Jose Cruz. I'll do a deeper dive on Cruz sometime this week but the 411 on him is that he is a sidearm power reliever who throws his fastball in the mid-90s, touching 98 MPH, and has struck out 19 of the 40 batters that he's faced this season. Sounds pretty familiar? I can personally vouch for a Camilo Doval-type ceiling for Cruz as he's had a dominant but wild 2022 season if you look past the 3.86 ERA.