SF Giants Perceived Draft Tendencies Under Michael Holmes

2 of 2

The San Francisco Giants' director of amateur scouting Michael Holmes has steered the ship whenever the MLB Draft comes around since he was hired from the Oakland Athletics by the president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi in 2019. In Oakland, he served as the assistant scouting director. After he took over from the legendary John Barr, Holmes has brought his flavor to the amateur scouting department and not just a National League version of how Oakland deals with their business during draft day.

SF Giants Perceived Draft Tendencies Under Michael Holmes

After thoroughly examining the three draft classes that Holmes had the final call in the war room, here are some tendencies that the organization has done on draft day with some quotes that are retrieved from Civilization 6, a game that was a lot of fun to play during this off-season. Again, these tendencies came not from the Giants themselves. This is based on my judgment after scrutinizing their draft classes for the past three years under Michael Holmes.

"I’d imagine the whole world as one big machine. Machines never come with any spare parts, you know. They always come with the exact amount they need."

(DRAFTING FOR ORGANIZATION DEPTH NEEDS)

Over the past three drafts, the front office has done a great job to fill the holes in the organizational depth chart. It's like whenever it's the Draft Day, they not only have their draft board up but also their organizational depth chart up as well. Entering the 2019 season, even though the farm system is pretty even in terms of both hitting and pitching talent, hitting leads at the top of the organization. What did they do? They drafted hitters with nine of their first ten picks. It's not so much to address a need in the organization as it helped set up their depth chart for the next season.

With the next season, though, the front office started filling out their holes big time with the seven picks that they had. A gaping hole in the catching depth chart after Joey Bart? They drafted Patrick Bailey. A very thin third baseman depth aside from Luis Toribio? They drafted Casey Schmitt. A very thin left-handed pitching depth? They drafted Nick Swiney and Kyle Harrison. A lack of second baseman depth? They drafted Jimmy Glowenke. A general pitching depth issue? They drafted R.J. Dabovich and Ryan Murphy aside from Swiney and Harrison. The front office did as well as they could with their picks in the 2020 draft to address their needs in the depth chart.

Heading to the 2021 Draft, the organization has a massive pitching depth issue. What did they do? They drafted pitchers with their first nine picks. And now, the farm system is back to its balanced state of strong hitting and pitching depth. However, there is still an issue of depth in the infield. If this trend holds, we might most likely see an infielder get drafted in the first round this year.

"Money, if it does not bring you happiness, will at least help you be miserable in comfort."

(DRAFTING POOL-SAVING COLLEGE PICKS EARLY)

This is the most obvious tendency that the Giants have. They draft players with their first two selections who are willing to take an under-slot bonus to have a bigger spending capability on Day Two and even Day Three where, as they call it, "the real draft starts". It's like they have deliberated on which prospects will take an under-slot deal with the club and then put them on a shortlist. If one of those said shortlisted prospects is a legitimate first-round talent worthy of picking around their selection, they will most likely pull the trigger.

This has happened over the three drafts under Holmes. In 2019, they saved 1.08 million in pool money when they signed Hunter Bishop and Logan Wyatt to signing bonuses that were $640,000 and $400,000 under-slot, respectively. In 2020, they saved $760,000 in pool money when they signed Patrick Bailey and Casey Schmitt to bonuses that were $400,000 and $360,000 under-slot, respectively. In 2021, it happened once again when they saved up to $660,000 in pool money when they signed Will Bednar and Matt Mikulski to deals that were $390,000 and $270,000 under-slot, respectively.

In 2022, the Giants' first two selections will most likely follow the same trend of signing for under-slot deals to have more spending money for their later selections.

“A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools.”

(TAKING LEGITIMATE FIRST-ROUND TALENTS WITH THEIR FIRST PICK)

Even though the Giants under Michael Holmes do love to save up bonus pool money with their first picks, they do not take prospects who are perceived as discount picks. They take legitimate first-round talents.

When they selected Hunter Bishop with their first-round pick (10th overall) in 2019, both MLB.com and Baseball America ranked him as their seventh-best prospect. When the front office selected Patrick Bailey 13th overall in 2020, MLB.com ranked the catcher from NC State as their number 17 prospect in the draft class while Baseball America ranked him in number 14. When Will Bednar was selected with the 14th overall selection in the 2021 draft, Baseball America have him as their number 18 prospect in the draft class while MLB.com ranked him at number 32 although they did their final rankings during the middle of Bednar's explosion in the College World Series.

Expect the organization to not discount talent when it's their turn to draft with their first-round pick in 2022. Even if they try to discount talent, the ranking of their draft choice should not be far off from where most major baseball sites ranked the prospect.

"Bravery is being the only one who knows you’re afraid.”

(NOT AFRAID TO SIGN COLLEGE PROSPECTS TO DAY TWO OVER-SLOT DEALS)

When thinking of over-slot deals, it is often associated with high school prospects because of their college commitments and their tendency to ask for a certain amount of money, often in the seven-figure range, to lure them away from their college commitments where they have a shot of blossoming and earning even more money in three years. However, the Giants have proven that it is not just the high school prospects that sign for over-slot money but also college prospects as well. The caveat is that the organization only does it on the second day of the draft, not the first.

In 2019, seventh-rounder Armani Smith from UC Santa Barbara signed for $80,000 over-slot and eighth-rounder Caleb Kilian from Texas Tech signed for a little under $225,000 over-slot. In 2020, second-rounder Nick Swiney from NC State signed for a little under $225,000 over-slot, like Kilian. In 2021, sixth-rounder Seth Lonsway from Ohio State signed for just over $18,000 over-slot as a senior, which is very interesting, and eighth-rounder Ian Villers from Cal signed for just over $40,000 over-slot.

If you have the talent, the Giants will not be afraid to sign you for over-slot money even though you are a college prospect, let alone a college senior like Lonsway, where he supposedly had very little leverage over his asking price. It's safe to say that it worked out pretty well with Kilian while Smith and Swiney have held serve last season. The expectation is that the organization should go this route once again.

Michael Holmes' second first round selection Patrick Bailey / Ezra Shaw/GettyImages

SF Giants Perceived Draft Tendencies Under Michael Holmes

"And, being merry and young, they did not miss any chances of hearing about the beautiful maids of the city."

(DRAFTING YOUNG-FOR-THE-CLASS FIRST-ROUNDERS)

In the three years that Michael Holmes and company have done the draft for the Giants, a thing that emerged is that they value the age of college prospects in the first round. Hunter Bishop, Patrick Bailey, and Will Bednar were exactly 21 years of age, meaning they were born within a month of the draft. Coincidence? I think not! However, this is crucial information, especially when looking at future drafts regarding college prospects in the first round.

"We walk through ourselves, meeting robbers, ghosts, giants, old men, young men, wives, widows, brothers-in-love. But always meeting ourselves."

(NO AGE PREFERENCE ON PREPSTERS)

However, they do not mind drafting prepsters who are considered as old for their class, or age is not a big factor in their high school draft prospect models within the first ten rounds. Looking at the 2019 draft class, Grant McCray, Garrett Frechette, and Trevor McDonald were at least three months older than Dilan Rosario, who was exactly 18 years old when he was drafted. From both the 2020 and the 2021 classes, Kyle Harrison and Eric Silva were even older, as they are only a couple of months shy of their 19th birthdays when they were drafted.

“Aim for the moon. If you miss, you may hit a star.”

(DRAFTING POWER HITTERS REGARDLESS OF LEVEL OF EDUCATION)

Even before the Farhan Zaidi era, the organization has historically targeted power hitters in past and the scouting corps now led by Holmes is no different. Much of the scouts that Holmes now leads are with the organization for decades at most and Holmes does not like to "cookie cut what they should like".

Over the past three drafts, the Giants loved their prospects who have at least above-average or plus raw power in their profile and they seem to target this demographic from early-round to the third day of the draft. Examples of them targeting this demographic are Hunter Bishop, Garrett Frechette, Armani Smith, Harrison Freed, Carter Aldrete, Connor Cannon, Patrick Bailey, Vaun Brown, and Jared Dupere. Expect them to target this demographic again one way or another in this year's draft.

“There is no easy way to train an apprentice. My two tools are example and nagging.”

(DRAFTING TOOLSY BUT RAW HIGH SCHOOL POSITION PLAYERS)

If there is one tendency that the organization has with their high school hitting, it's that they like it toolsy. It means that they prefer their prospects to either have plus speed, plus raw power, plus bat speed, plus athleticism, plus defensive potential in their position, or a combination of those three even if there is a relative rawness in their hitting profile that needs plenty of polishing.

Examples of these include Grant McCray and Donovan McIntyre with his plus speed, athleticism, and defensive profile in the outfield, Dilan Rosario with raw power and defensive potential at shortstop, Garrett Frechette, and Irvin Murr with his plus raw power in their bats. If the Giants target a high school position player in this year's draft, expect it to be on the toolsy side rather than a polished profile.

“Tactics mean doing what you can with what you have.”

(PREFERENCE ON PITCHABILITY BUT DYNAMIC AND DECEPTIVE HIGH SCHOOL PITCHERS)

The Giants have only signed three high school pitchers within the top 15 rounds over the past three years, one each year. However, this is the demographic that they shelled out the most pool money in those said three years. In 2019, 11th rounder Trevor McDonald was tied with Garrett Frechette with the highest signing bonus given to a prep player in the draft class ($800,000). In 2020, they opened the vault and gave Kyle Harrison late-first round money to lure him away from his UCLA commit ($2,500,000). In 2021, they handed out $1,500,000 or equivalent to a top 50 pick to sign Eric Silva away from his UCLA commitment.

What do these three prospects have in common? They are high school pitchers where they are more known for their pitchability rather than pure stuff while also being athletic on the mound. The difference between McDonald, Harrison, and Silva is that McDonald is more of a pop-up prospect who burst into the spotlight after a dominant outing in January that year while both Harrison and Silva are already known commodities with a great track record. McDonald and Harrison had deception built into their deliveries while Silva was the better athlete and was the hardest thrower by the time they were drafted. Based on the 2021 returns, though, McDonald is holding his own while Harrison turned out to be decent.

The Giants will likely target this demographic and hand out their highest Day Two signing bonus to a prep pitching prospect once again in 2022.

"It is known that man has five Exterior Senses, and every sense is ignorant of each other; for the Nose knows not what the Eyes see, nor the Eyes what the Ears hear, neither do the Ears know what the Tongue tastes..."

(STRONG WALKS RATES ARE ALMOST A MUST FOR COLLEGE POSITION PLAYERS, STRIKEOUT RATES ARE TOLERATED AS LONG AS THERE IS PLENTY OF RAW POWER)

One of the organizational philosophies of San Francisco is to draft hitters with strong strike-zone control. It means that they have at least respectable strikeout and walk rates or exemplary at best. San Francisco has carried this over to the draft as well when selecting collegiate position players.

Within the first 20 rounds, the Giants' position players they drafted and signed have a walk rate of at least 8% in the year that they were drafted led by Logan Wyatt's ridiculous 22.1% walk rate in 2019 (2020 shortened season not included) except 2019 eighth-round selection Simon Whiteman who had a walk rate of 6.31% in his senior season. However, Whiteman also had the lowest strikeout rate of every position player drafted and signed in the past three with just 6.80%. Strikeout rates do not matter that much as long as the prospect has the power to show for.

Hunter Bishop, Carter Aldrete, Connor Cannon, Patrick Bailey, and Jared Dupere all had a strikeout rate above 20% in their draft-eligible years but have at least above-average power. Only 2019 16th rounder Brandon Martorano had a strikeout rate greater than 20% but does not have the thump that the other prospects in the group have.

"You can’t expect to wield supreme power just ‘cause some watery tart threw a sword at you!”

(FLUID COLLEGE PITCHING PREFERENCE BUT VELOCITY AND NEW PITCHING TERMINOLOGIES ARE KINGS)

The only tendency that is hard to pinpoint from the Michael Holmes-led draft classes is their very fluid preference for their pitchers. In 2019 and 2020, the Giants drafted college starting pitchers in the first ten rounds that are considered being more towards pitchability than pure stuff with Caleb Kilian, Nick Swiney, and Ryan Murphy.

However, they completely flipped the script around in 2021 and drafted starters who are more stuff than pitchability. Pitchers like Will Bednar, Matt Mikulski, Mason Black, Rohan Handa, and Seth Lonsway were not exactly prominent strike-throwers (except Bednar) but what they have is the velocity and the wipeout secondaries that the coaches will do all that they can to harness their stuff.

When they target pure relievers, they prefer target velocity. Guys like Chris Wright, Nick Morreale, Cole Waites, Kanoa Pagan, R.J. Dabovich, and Ian Villers, just to name a few, can bring it on the mound and pump mid-90s fastballs with a nasty secondary pitch.

However, the organization’s pitching success in the big-league club to implement seam-shifted wakes and flat vertical approach angles that produced success stories like Alex Wood and Logan Webb trickled down to their draft tendencies and the 2021 pitching class can see their arm slots get lowered and implement seam-shifted wake-friendly properties to their pitch mix. That makes their draft tendencies towards college pitching and pitching in general a hard thing to pin down.

With a shifting tendency towards their pitching references, it's best to look at their latest class to see what will probably their preferences will be with their next draft. Based on their 2021 draft class, pitchers who have strong sweeping properties with their breaking balls and a late-breaking sinker are the likeliest profile that the scouting department will target for this year’s draft.

Home / SF Giants News

SF Giants Perceived Draft Tendencies Under Michael Holmes

SF Giants Perceived Draft Tendencies Under Michael Holmes

Schedule