SF Giants lefty pitcher considered "extreme long-shot" to opt out of deal

SF Giants southpaw pitcher Robbie Ray has an opt-out clause to consider at the end of this season. However, Mark Feinsand of MLB.Com considers it an "extreme long-shot" that Ray would opt out of his deal in favor of free agency.

SF Giants lefty pitcher considered "extreme long-shot" to opt out of deal

The veteran pitcher has two years and $50 million remaining on a five-year, $115 million deal he signed with the Seattle Mariners before the 2022 season. He was coming off of an excellent 2021 campaign with the Toronto Blue Jays in which he posted a 2.84 ERA in 32 starts while taking home the AL Cy Young Award.

The Giants acquired Ray in a trade with the Mariners that sent both Mitch Haniger and Anthony DeSclafani to Seattle. In a way, this was a salary-dump move on both sides with the Mariners taking on more money in 2024, whereas the Giants absorbed a larger contract spread over the next few years.

At the time of the deal, Ray was still recovering with Tommy John surgery and was expected to return by the middle of the 2024 season. This by itself made it unlikely that Ray would have enough time to show that he had returned to his pre-surgery form before the end of the 2024 season.

Perhaps, a strong finish in his return would have increased the odds that he would opt out, but $50 million is a lot of money to walk away from, especially for a pitcher returning from a major elbow procedure. The odds of him opting out were generally low, so Feinsand's speculation is not too surprising.

The 11-year veteran has posted a 4.88 ERA with 39 strikeouts against 12 walks in 27.2 innings with San Francisco this season. The strikeout rate remains healthy and he will typically give up some walks, but six home runs allowed is a number to monitor.

It often takes a long time after a pitcher returns to the mound before they regain their pre-surgery form. That is, if they do at all. The early signs for Ray have been promising even if he has mixed in a couple of bad starts. That is part of the process.

If he does remain with San Francisco, it does give them some stability at the front of the rotation along with Logan Webb. Kyle Harrison, Hayden Birdsong, and Jordan Hicks will likely slot in after those two. On the other hand, Blake Snell will almost certainly opt out of his deal and become a free agent again.