SF Giants: How does Logan Webb become an ace?

The SF Giants selected Logan Webb in the fourth round of the 2014 MLB Draft, and had his "welcome to the majors" moment in the 2021 playoffs, that left me to ponder: what does Webb have to do in 2022 to further himself on the path to becoming a true ace?

How did SF Giants righty Logan Webb become an ace?

If you asked around before the 2021 season, I would have to assume not a lot of non-SF Giant fans knew who Logan Webb was. He made his debut in 2019 and pitched only 39 innings with a ballooned ERA of 5.22, and in the shortened COVID-2020 season -- considered to be his first full season -- Webb struggled in 54 innings, accumulating an ERA of 5.47.

Once the calendar flipped to 2021, however, Webb began figuring it out. He lowered his walks per nine by almost two full walks while increasing his strikeouts per nine two full strikeouts, which helped him finish 11-3 and an ERA of 3.03. Webb missed qualifying for the ERA leaders by approximately 14 innings, but if he did qualify, he would've finished 10th across all of baseball (just behind Marcus Stroman, and just ahead of Max Fried), which had Giants fans excited for the future. Then came the 2021 postseason, where an entirely new legend was born against the arch-rival Dodgers.

In his postseason debut, against the defending World Series champions, Webb sliced through the Dodgers lineup striking out 10 over 7.2 innings, and most importantly: ZERO earned runs. What a way to make an opening.

A few days later in a win-or-go-home game five, Webb pitched seven more innings and gave up just one(!) run. As Giants fans know, however, is that this game ended in a way that overshadows Webb's gem. Now we are heading into Webb's third full season at the major league level and there is more hype surrounding him than there ever has been before.

How did SF Giants righty Logan Webb become an ace?

Usually, in other sports, some people are able to (or try to) project certain players' paths to greatness. It's most commonly done in the NBA. For example, "player x" has to average this many points, assists, and rebounds while shooting this percentage in order to be at the same level that LeBron James (or any other high-tier player) was at at that same point in his career. This thought process is what inspired me to write this piece.

It is harder to do these types of projections for baseball players because the peaks and valleys of a Major League Baseball career are much higher than say, an NFL quarterback, or an NBA player. One year a guy could win the CY Young while amassing 20 wins and having an ERA under 2.10, but then the following year, and the years following, never have any more type of sustainable success, and essentially, in the sports world, fall off a high plateau that they never can climb again.

With all of that being said, I wanted to try and see what Logan Webb would have to do in 2022 in order to keep on the path of being an ace. Not just the ace of the Giants, but someone who is considered a sustainable ace across the entire league.

First, I had to come up with a pool of pitchers that at one point in their careers were considered to be an ace. Here's, just using my head, the eight players I came up with, trying to keep them as recent as possible: Matt Harvey, Yu Darvish, Sandy Alcantara, Johnny Cueto, Tim Hudson, Adam Wainwright, Tim Lincecum, and Madison Bumgarner.

You could always think of more, or eight different ones, but these players offer enough variety for this exercise. From these eight, I looked at all of their third year in the majors. Now, for some, that varies as well. Someone's fifth year in the majors could be considered only the third-full year (based on service etc,.)

Here is how those eight did in their third year.

For the first three, we will not consider it in our final projection for Webb, seeing how outlandish they are.

Adam Wainwright, way back in 2009, in his age-27 season, accumulated a 6.3 WAR, while going 19-8 with an ERA of 2.63. - Finishing third in the National League Cy Young voting.

Matt Harvey's third season came in 2015 -- his age-26 season -- and he had a stat line of 13-8 with an ERA of 2.71, accumulating a 4.9 WAR.

Tim Lincecum, as Giants fans know, had one of the most topsy-turvey careers ever, in this third season, at the age of 25, went 15-7 with an ERA of 2.48, configuring to a 7.4 WAR, while winning the National League Cy Young Award.

How did SF Giants righty Logan Webb become an ace?

The next five seem more obtainable for Webb to come close to, but as always never say never, because, at the end of the day, we are trying to project, or predict, the unpredictable.

In 2014, Yu Darvish was 27 in his third year for the Texas Rangers, going 10-7 with an ERA of 3.06, and a 3.5 WAR.

Way back in 2001, Tim Hudson in his age-25 season, went 18-9 with an ERA of 3.37, with a 4.5 WAR.

Most recently, Sandy Alcantara, this past season went 9-15 (on a Marlins team that did not win a lot of games) with an ERA of 3.19

Johnny Cueto in 2010 - his age 24 season - went 12-7 with an ERA of 3.64, and a 2.4 WAR for the Cincinnati Reds.

Finally, Madison Bumgarner, in 2012 at the age of 22, posted a 16-11 record with a 3.37 ERA and a 2.0 WAR.

Between these five, the average line works out to be 13-10, 3.22 ERA, and 3.3 WAR, which is something to keep in mind for later.

How did SF Giants righty Logan Webb become an ace?

Before I even started writing this, I wanted to see where Webb projects heading into the season. I looked at two different websites, FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, to get an idea of where they think Webb will do in 2022.

FanGraphs Logan Webb projection: 12-10, 3.38 ERA, 9.03 K/9.
Baseball-Reference: 10-6, 3.73 ERA, 9.20 K/9.

Looking purely at the projections, Baseball-Reference certainly is amongst the belief that Webb will hard regress in 2022. Considering his struggles in '19 and '20, it's not out of the question that Webb will, in fact, regress. This also does not necessarily mean they thought the 2021 season was flukey, but making an inference based on their projection, they believe Webb's talent, progression, and skill is all still raw, meaning he has room to grow. Although, they think he will strike out nearly 10 batters per nine.

Not to mention, by the way, that a 3.73 ERA is not even that bad considering how much the offense sways in today's game over pitching.

FanGraph's projection certainly favors Webb in the ERA department, although they believe Webb won't strike out *as many* batters as Baseball-Reference does.

One final thing, I decided to look at strikeouts per nine in more detail. I was curious: What is the best K/9 in a single season in a player's third year? For this, of course, they needed to be a starting pitcher, so the benchmark is a minimum of 150 innings pitched. Here is what I found (this is since 2010):

Highest K/9 in SP third year, min. 150 IP. since 2010

1. Dylan Cease: 12.28 (2021)
2. Robbie Ray: 11.25 (2016)
3. Stephen Strasburg: 11.13 (2012)
4. Blake Snell: 11.01 (2018)
5. Luis Severino: 10.71 (2017)

Obviously, these are higher than the projections for Webb. However, what I did find was that there were some interesting names that fell into the same numbers at the projections. Using the same benchmarks as before, Chris Sale had a 9.0 K/9 in his third season, which is the FanGraphs projection, and Clayton Kershaw and Mike Clevinger had a 9.3 K/9 in their third season, which was the Baseball-Reference projection. Which, I think if you were to tell Giants fans, or even the front office, that Webb would develop into a Clevinger, or even a Sale, and even a Kershaw, they would take that every time.

Ultimately, Webb has a lot of pressure to perform at a high clip in 2022, especially after his postseason performances against the Dodgers. It will be fun to watch from afar to see if he can match, or even succeed these expectations.