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SF Giants: Grading Farhan Zaidi's Free Agent Strategy

MLB free agency is perhaps the most influential changing of hands and shuffling of cards that occurs in the MLB calendar. This places a massive emphasis on making prudent and intelligent signings that help your team in the short and long term. There is no doubt that the most recent free agent signings by Farhan Zaidi and the SF Giants front office have been, to put it kindly, a mixed bag. Is this one year a continuance of a pattern or a blip on the radar? Today, we will be grading Farhan Zaidi's free agent strategy since his tenure began as the head of the proverbial table. The methodology is simple. Farhan Zaidi was hired on November 6th, 2018 therefore the 18-19 off-season will be disregarded as he was not hired until after free agency had begun. Furthermore, extensions and minor league contracts will not affect the grading while qualifying offers will be counted as one-year contracts.

By Jacob Taylor |
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Since taking over as SF Giants president of baseball operations, Farhan Zaidi has had a much different approach to free agency than the prior regime. How has that approach done so far? We broke it down by year.

SF Giants: Grading Farhan Zaidi's Free Agent Strategy

The Giants have committed approximately $220.1 million against the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) in 2023. The CBT is set at $233 million, so the Giants will comfortably fall below the tax threshold.

Nevertheless, the Giants have quietly been building payroll back up in recent seasons. When Zaidi took over, he inherited a roster of underperforming, lucrative contracts. All of those contracts are off of the books now, so he is accountable for the current roster. Without further adieu, let's take a look at how he has performed.

2019 - 2020 FA Class

Wilmer Flores: 2 yr $6.25 million. 2020 55 G, .268/.315/.515, 124 OPS+, 1.3 WAR. 2021 139 G .262/.335/.447, 111 OPS+, 1.7 bWAR. Given a 3-year extension prior to the 2022 season.

Hunter Pence: 1 yr $3 million. 2020 17 G, .096/.161/.250, 11 OPS+, -.6 bWAR. Released on August 25th. Retired that off-season.

Drew Smyly: 1 yr $4 million. 26.1 IP, 3.42 ERA, 126 ERA+, .5 bWAR. Signed 1 yr $11 million deal with ATL.

Kevin Gausman: 1 yr $9 million. 59.2 IP, 3.62 ERA, 118 ERA+, 1.3 WAR. Given a qualifying offer in 2021.

Summary: There is no doubt this class should be considered a massive success. The 2020 season ended in heartbreak as the SF Giants were eliminated from playoff contention on the final day of the regular season.

That said, the only true failure of this free agent class is Hunter Pence, who was awful for 17 games before being released. Other than that, both Kevin Gausman and Drew Smyly vastly outperformed their contracts. This helped the Giants be 8th out of 15 NL teams in ERA despite Johnny Cueto's 63.1 IP of 5.40 ERA and Logan Webb's 54.1 IP of 5.47 ERA.

On the hitting side, Wilmer Flores had the 5th highest OPS+ on the Giants in 2020 and 2021, providing a steady presence in the middle of the lineup. The Hunter Pence acquisition likely cost the Giants a playoff spot in 2020 but every other signing smashed its value considering the production for the cost.

Grade: A

Grading Farhan Zaidi's Free Agent Strategy

2020-2021 FA Class

Kevin Gausman: 1 yr, $18.5 million. 192 IP, 2.81 ERA, 147 ERA+, 5.2 bWAR. Signed 5 yr, $110 million deal with Toronto

Jose Alvarez: 1 yr $1.15 million with $1.5 million option for 2022. 2021 64.2 IP, 2.37 ERA, 175 ERA+, 1.2 bWAR. Option was exercised. 2022 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 76 ERA+, -.1 bWAR. Released during the 2022 season.

Jake McGee: 2 yr, $5 million. 2021 59.2 IP, 2.72 ERA, 153 ERA+, 1.0 bWAR. 2022 21.1 IP, 7.17 ERA, 56 ERA+, -.8 bWAR. Released on July 13th, 2022.

Tommy La Stella: 3 yr $18.75 million. 2021 76 G, .250/.308/.405, 92 OPS +, .3 bWAR. 2022 60 G, .239/.282/.350, 79 OPS+, -.7 bWAR. DFA'd prior to the final year of the contract.

Alex Wood: 1 yr $3 million. 2021 136.2 IP, 3.83 ERA, 108 ERA+, 1.7 bWAR. Given 2 year contract in the 2021-2022 off-season.

Curt Casali: 1 yr $1.5 million. 2021 77 G, .210/.313/.350, 81 OPS+, .7 bWAR. Retained through arbitration for 2022. 2022, 41 G, .231/.325/.370, 98 OPS+, 1.1 bWAR. Traded to Seattle with Matthew Boyd for Michael Stryffeler and Andy Thomas on August 2nd.

John Brebbia: 1 yr $800k. 2021 18.1 IP, 5.89 ERA, 71 ERA+, -.2 bWAR. Retained through arbitration for 2022. 2022 68 IP, 3.18 ERA, 124 ERA+, 1.6 bWAR. Retained through arbitration for 2023. 2023 32 IP, 3.09 ERA, 139 ERA+, .8 bWAR.

Anthony DeSclafani: 1 yr $6 million. 2021 167.2 IP, 3.17 ERA, 130 ERA+, 4.3 bWAR. Signed 3 yr, $36 million contract in 2021-2022 off-season.

Matt Wisler: 1 yr $1.15 million. 2021 19.1 IP, 6.05 ERA, 69 ERA+, -.3 bWAR. Traded to Tampa Bay for Michael Plassmeyer on June 11th.

Summary: The bats from this class are tough to look at. Curt Casali was a valuable backup to Buster Posey in 2021 and vastly outperformed his true talent in 2022 but Tommy La Stella ruins all of that.

La Stella never got past several nagging injuries and underwhelming performance and the Giants ate the final year of his contract. No doubt, Tommy was a crash-and-burn which hurts considering the size of the deal. The pitching also had its ups and downs. John Brebbia had a tough 2021 season before bouncing back in each of the last two season.

Jake McGee and Jose Alvarez both crushed the first year of the deals becoming reliable bullpen arms but both fell apart in year two and neither made it to the end of the season.

Yet, Kevin Gausman proved he was a true ace while Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani both pitched brilliantly as the Giants finished 2nd in ERA in the NL for the 2021 season. It should be noted that the extension of both DeSclafani and Wood have been disasters but their initial contracts were brilliant. While the Giants got some great pitching out of this deal the crash and burn of the relievers in year two of their deals and the La Stella contract means this was a pretty bland free-agent class.

Grade: C-

Grading Farhan Zaidi's Free Agent Strategy

2021 - 2022 FA Class

Matthew Boyd: 1 yr $5.2 million. He never made an appearance with the Giants. Traded to Seattle with Curt Casali for Michael Stryffeler and Andy Thomas on August 2nd.

Joc Pederson: 1 yr $6 million. 2022 134 G, .274/.353/.521, 145 OPS+, 1.3 bWAR. Signed his qualifying offer for 2023.

Carlos Rodon: 2 yr $44 million with opt-out after year one. 2022 178 IP, 2.88 ERA, 138 ERA+, 5.4 bWAR. Opted out, signed 6 yr $162 million deal with NYY.

Brandon Belt: 1 yr $18.4 million. 2022 78 G, .213/.326/.350, 93 OPS+, .3 bWAR. Signed 1 y, $9.3 million deal with TOR.

Anthony DeSclafani: 3 yr $36 million. 2022 19 IP, 6.63 ERA, 61 ERA +, -.8 bWAR. 2023 99.2 IP, 4.88 ERA, 88 ERA+, .3 bWAR.

Alex Cobb: 2 yr $20 million. 2022 149.2 IP, 3.73 ERA, 107 ERA+, 2.7 bWAR. 2023 149.1 IP, 3.62 ERA, 118 ERA+, 3.1 bWAR.

Alex Wood: 2 yr $25 million. 2022 130.2 IP, 5.10 ERA, 78 ERA+, .3 bWAR. 2023 87 IP, 4.55 ERA, 94 ERA+, .5 bWAR.

Jakob Junis: 1 yr $1.75 million. 2022 112 IP, 4.42 ERA, 90 ERA+, 1.6 bWAR. Retained through arbitration for 2023. 2023 80.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 106 ERA+, .7 bWAR.

Trevor Rosenthal: 1 yr $1.9 million. He never made an appearance with the Giants. Traded to MIL for Tristan Peters.

Summary: What a massive bundle of weirdness. Spending over $7 million on players who never appeared for the Giants is a massively questionable choice. The pitching was all over the place.

Undoubtedly, Carlos Rodon, Alex Cobb, and Jakob Junis were all very good deals. On the other hand, the contracts for Alex Wood, Anthony DeSclafani, and of course getting nothing from Matthew Boyd or Trevor Rosenthal is a painful grouping. Factoring in the cost and pitching was a reasonably epic failure during this offseason.

As for the bats, Joc Pederson was a massive success on his initial deal but that positive is wiped out by spending over $18 million for 78 games of awful Brandon Belt. This class is tough to look at.

Grade: D-

Grading Farhan Zaidi's Free Agent Strategy

2022 - 2023 FA Class

Ross Stripling: 2 yr $25 million. 2023 78.1 IP, 5.29 ERA, 81 ERA+, .1 bWAR.

Joc Pederson: 1 yr $19.65 million. 2023 106 G, .247/.359/.427, 116 OPS+, .7 bWAR.

Sean Manaea: 2 yr $25 million. 2023 99.1 IP, 4.80 ERA, 89 ERA+, -.4 bWAR.

Taylor Rogers: 3 yr $33 million. 2023 49.1 IP, 3.10 ERA, 138 ERA+, .9 bWAR.

Mitch Haniger: 3 yr $43.5 million. 2023 52 G, .216/.277/.384, 80 OPS+, -.2 bWAR.

Roberto Perez: 1 yr $2.5 million. 2023 5 G, .133/.235/.133, 6 OPS+, -.2 bWAR.

Michael Conforto: 2 yr $36 million. 2023 111 G, .251/.343/.405, 106 OPS+, .8 bWAR

Luke Jackson: 2 yr $11.5 million. 2023 28.2 IP, 3.14 ERA, 137 ERA+, .5 bWAR

Summary: This is a catastrophic free-agent class. The only worthwhile additions are Jackson and Rogers and they still have a few years of possible decline. Literally, everyone else has had a catastrophic season and at the very best is underperforming.

Grade: F

What We Have Learned

The purpose of this exercise is to determine if Farhan Zaidi and the Giants front office have just had a bad year in 2023 or if their free agent choices have a pattern of poor decision-making.

There can be no doubt that the 2019-2020 free agent class was a dream. However, every class that has followed has been mediocre at best and catastrophically bad at worst. While the player development and trade acquisitions during this time have had their bright spots, it is unquestionable that the Giants need to revise their free-agent strategy moving forward.

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