SF Giants 2022 Top 30 Prospects: September Update

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The 2022 Minor League regular season is now drawing to a close but there are still some fireworks happening in the Giants minor league system. Look, the farm system has taken a step backward compared to where they are entering the season. That is because of the struggles of their top draft picks in the Farhan Zaidi era (looking at you Hunter Bishop, Patrick Bailey, Will Bednar, Logan Wyatt, Matt Mikulski) and the fall of once consensus top 100 prospects Luis Matos and Heliot Ramos. That's a fact. Those are a lot of prospects, almost a quarter of a top 30 prospects list.

SF Giants 2022 Top 30 Prospects: September Update

What is lost in translation is the number of player development success stories like Vaun Brown and Landen Roupp. Just because they are not the talk of the national media doesn't mean the Giants' farm system suck. Call me a glass half-full or wearing rose-colored glasses or even working for Farhan Zaidi, but I would prefer to be that than being absolutely ignorant of the farm system outside of Kyle Harrison and Marco Luciano. It is my duty to raise awareness of the lesser-known prospects in the Giants' farm system and if you choose to wear the crap-colored glasses, then sucks to be you, I guess.

Note: I will note how many spots were gained or lost compared to last month's ranking. If a prospect gained a spot, there would be a (+) and the corresponding spots moved, and conversely, a (-) and the corresponding spots moved for the fallers. If someone holds his spot, the prospect will have a (0) and an (NR) for the newcomers. I will also include the prospect's Present Value (PV) or what kind of value that the prospect will provide if he's thrown to the big league roster right now, and Future Value (FV), or the most likely outcome of the prospect.

Just a reminder:

55 PV/FV = Potential 1-2x All-Star position player/ #2-3 SP/ Perennial All-Star RP
50 PV/FV = Everyday position player/ #3-4 SP/ Average closer
45 PV/FV = Platoon or utility player/ #4-5 SP/ Average set-up man
40 PV/FV = Pinch hitter or runner or def replacement/ AAAA-type SP/ Average reliever
30 PV/FV = Organizational depth
20 PV/FV = Non-prospect

SF Giants Top Prospects #1 - #10

The cherry at the top is still the dynamic duo of Kyle Harrison and Marco Luciano. No questions there. I think in terms of nitpicking, I'd say there is one thing both of them need to work on. For Harrison, adding more muscle in his upper half might be the key for him to unlock more velocity. For Luciano, it's staying on top of his flexibility drills because he is already super physically built.

All alone in the third spot is Casey Schmitt. It was obvious that Schmitt got worn down as the season progressed in Eugene but the Richmond call-up acted like a breath of fresh air for him. The swing got longer and longer as the weather warmed up in the Northwest but got back to a short and direct approach in Richmond. He might be a five-hole to a seven-hole hitter but his all-around offensive game along with his stellar defense at the hot corner makes him a potential building block for the next generation of Giants players.

The next three are all outfielders with center field potential, it's just a pick your flavor-kind of thing. I just preferred to rank the three in this order. Grant McCray has a glaring strikeout issue (even when he's hot, he's striking out a good bit) but he's blossomed from a toolsy but raw guy who is a prospect that some people who really follow the prospects scene thought could have been drafted in the first round if he ever went to college and had this kind of season.

Luis Matos has definitely seen better days after returning to his more natural approach (meaning screw working the count and getting on base via walk, a base hit is as good as a walk) but that brings into question "can he ever be the all-around bat that we expect him to turn out to be?" We've seen this season that he can't but he will definitely have another crack at it next year. If he still can't, well, he's now more of a solid prospect with everyday potential rather than a future All-Star.

Vaun Brown is more tooled up than Matos and has performed better than McCray but he's also at least two years older than both of them so he slots in just behind the two. Brown is now in Double-A and he will finish the year trying to help the Flying Squirrels win an Eastern League title.

Next are a trio of pitchers who are, again, can be interchangeable for me but two are legit 45 FV prospects and the other one is a high 40 FV prospect but I'll get into the nuts and bolts to explain. Mason Black might be starting to run out of gas in the second half of the season (4.95 ERA this month) but you have to consider that this is his first time handling more than 100 innings for a season so he's maybe getting tired and all. However, he's still delivering in terms of his peripherals even when he's tiring down. Working on his stamina is definitely on top of Black's list but the level of fluidity that I see and the level of stuff at his best still make him a deserving top 10 prospect heading to next season.

Carson Whisenhunt has looked pretty spotty in the Cape but clips of him pitching in Arizona makes me pretty excited for his 2023 season. Whisenhunt is basically Nick Swiney if Swiney throws harder. The changeup is definitely the centerpiece that has legit plus-plus potential, he sits in the low-90s with his fastball and also has a pretty decent feel for a curveball. Like Swiney, I question if Carson can add more in his frame to potentially throw harder and there will surely be control questions but what I saw from him as a pro is pretty exciting.

Landen Roupp might be a 40 FV now but there's a legit shot he is a 45 FV prospect when I review all the prospects in the winter. The good thing about Roupp is that his showcase pitch is a breaking ball and it's a legit plus pitch now. He throws strikes with it very well and he's basically used it as a primary pitch as a professional which low-Minors batters pretty much have zero shot of hitting. Making Double-A batters miss his curveball when he got called up to the level is a testament to its effectiveness. When you think of it, Roupp is the best possible outcome of Kai-Wei Teng. Teng can definitely miss lots of bats in the Double-A level with his breaking ball as the primary pitch but unlike Teng, Roupp can actually throw his fastball in the zone well. Roupp's low-90s fastball can get hit if he misses his spots because of its sinker shape (but more run than a usual sinker). He's done well to smoothen out the tempo of his delivery throughout the season but I see Roupp as more of a Tristan Beck right now if Beck never had back issues. Further improving his slider should also be on the agenda to bridge the gap between his fastball and curveball. I see Roupp as a potential big-league starter if he can further augment his pitch arsenal as well as consistently miss the middle of the plate with his fastball.

Next are three prospects who are, yet again, kind of pick your flavor as they are three completely different hitters. Aeverson Arteaga has an overall solid season for San Jose Giants. There are definitely flashes of what he could become but you have to sift through the youthful mistakes to see it. He has improved his power to a potential double-digit homer threat but is still more of a doubles guy. There are also flashes of defensive brilliance but an inconsistent body clock resulted in far more errors than you would expect from a guy as tooled up as him on defense. 2022 has been a learning experience for him and it can hopefully turn into a fruitful 2023 season.

Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants / Lachlan Cunningham/GettyImages

SF Giants 2022 Top 30 Prospects: September Update

SF Giants Top Prospects #11 - #21

Reggie Crawford might actually be Joey Gallo on offense with all the raw power in the world but with a strikeout ocean. The good thing is that being a hitter is the worse side of the two-way spectrum as him being a pitcher is looking like the way to go. I won't dismiss the possibility of Crawford hitting at least 15 homers next season in San Jose, but if he pitches the way that he's flashed before his elbow injury for Team USA and in the Cape, then him being a pitcher is definitely the path to take. The problem is that we'll only know the answer once he actually gets reps on the mound.

David Villar has returned to Sacramento this month and it's been the usual David Villar experience: lots of walks, hitting for power, and lots of strikeouts. However, for the third straight month, his batting average has been below-average and if he's below-average in AAA, well, you can kind of think what happens in the big leagues. We have seen it already, haven't we?

It's back to the pitching crop once again and it's time to talk about a couple of pitchers who are kind of similar in a way. Eric Silva has the tools to be a great starting pitcher. He has the athleticism, the fluidity in his motion, and the stuff to make batters swing and miss at a high rate. The main issue with him this year is the inconsistency of his pitches. He throws strikes but he struggles to finish a hitter quite a bit. Improving his fine control should be the most important thing for him along with adding more weight to his frame to better cope with the rigors of starting. He has the potential, he just has to harness his talent.

After a stellar 2021 season, it feels like Ryan Murphy never really had the type of season that he was looking for. He was hurt on two occasions this year (due to his back) but he still got promoted to Richmond because he is too good for Eugene. Murphy looked a bit thicker this year compared to last year and the strike-throwing regressed just a touch but with him being more of a control pitcher than anything, that touch of regression matters. With a good and healthy off-season, Murphy hopes to bounce back to what he is: the premier strike-thrower in the organization.

The next prospect is someone that I truly love but it's time to face the truth: Heliot Ramos might not actually pan out. After close to 900 plate appearances in the high-Minors including more than 600 plate appearances in Triple-A, Ramos is still struggling to make his mark on the level. Heliot's undergone a massive tweak in his batting stance but the results of that are still to be determined. There's still the argument of he's still young but 600 plate appearances is enough to get acclimated to the level but Ramos just fell flat this year unfortunately.

Right after Heliot is Jairo Pomares who had a great August but even when he's good, he's still having the great strikeout disease. Unlike McCray though, Pomares doesn't have any other plus in his toolbox that will help give him a safe floor if the hit tool fails.

Up next is Nick Zwack who actually impressed me after watching his watchable outings in an Emeralds' uniform. Yes, the fastball might only be in the low-90s and has a sinker shape but he can spot it in the edges of the strike zone. The two things that really caught my attention though are the slider and the cutter. The slider flashes above-average to plus with a late, sweeping bite that just dips below the barrel of the bat, and his cutter also flashes that late movement and it compliments well with his sinker. The results might not be there as an Emerald (might be a tweak by the Giants coaching staff to extract more swing and miss out of him) but I was pretty pleased with what I saw and I can't wait to dive deeper into his film in the winter. Another Nick, Nick Swiney, is just below Zwack. I slotted Swiney below Zwack but the two Nicks are pretty much neck and neck in my opinion. I just like the breaking stuff and strike-throwing from Zwack a touch more.

Next is Trevor McDonald. Look, McDonald's ERA might indicate that he's enjoying the transition from the late-inning relief role to a starting role in the second half of the season but the numbers under the hood indicate not quite the same story. His walk and strikeout rates went worse in the rotation role and he's been getting by with plenty of weak contact because of the sheer velocity that he's throwing the ball (up to 97 MPH as a starter) and the amount of movement that is just overwhelming Low-A hitting. If McDonald can rein it in once again like when he did as a relief guy next season in a rotation role, he will be a stud. If not, then he's a late-inning relief-only dude.

After some thought, I have decided to put Cole Waites back as the best true relief prospect in the organization right now. Waites has been pretty dominant in his stint with Richmond though there were some chinks in the armor (particularly his control issues) but we finally got a hold of his Statcast data when he got promoted to Sacramento this month and boy, oh boy, it's beautiful. The fastball sits in the mid-90s with plus rise on it (just 11" of drop) and the slider's just serviceable enough to make it work. If Waites continues to pound the upper third of the zone with his fastball, he'll be dominant. I sneaked him ahead of Randy Rodriguez because Rodriguez missed some time this month and was pretty iffy with his control.

San Francisco Giants v Colorado Rockies / Dustin Bradford/GettyImages

SF Giants 2022 Top 30 Prospects: September Update

SF Giants Top Prospects #22 - #30

It's time to recognize Tyler Fitzgerald's year. Look, the beginning of Fitzgerald's 2022 season was not pretty at all as he was sporting a strikeout rate of around 50% in April. His second half of the season, however, is when Fitzgerald turned things around with an OPS above .900 and has set his sights on a 20-20 season. A very impressive feat if he could actually achieve it especially from the position that he was in at the start of the season. I feel this is the true Tyler Fitzgerald, someone that we saw last year with Eugene, and there's a non-zero shot of him making the big leagues as he's an overall great person and a hard worker. The strikeouts will always be there for him though but there's power and speed in his game while also capable of playing shortstop.

Tristan Peters is just below Fitzgerald and Peters' Giants stint might not be the best so far but there I can definitely see why the Giants acquired him basically for free. He's a grinder, makes contact, makes good swing decisions, and hustles on the bases and on the outfield. It's a utility-type profile because of the lack of pop but he's definitely a prospect to watch for in 2023.

Speaking of watch out in 2023, the 2022 pitching Draft class are definitely a couple of folks to look out for. Both Spencer Miles and Liam Simon impressed me based on the looks down in the backfields. Look, I know Simon can touch 99 MPH but I was shocked when Miles touched 98 MPH in one-inning bursts. What I was even more shocked is operation on the mound. He's athletic on the mound, he has good fluidity in his motion, and he has an exceptional hip-shoulder separation. Miles might be terrible as a college pitcher but under the guidance of the Giants pitching lab, we might be a potential legitimate pitcher in our hands.

I still got Simon ahead of Miles though for a couple of reasons. First is that I like Simon's breaking ball more than Miles (Simon flashes a 55-grade slider). The second is that I have seen flashes of Simon commanding his fastball. I just like to see Simon finish his motion much cleaner because he is pretty nonchalant with how he follow through on the mound and I see that he's been more consistent in that area as a pro. Still, we need to see both in action in 2023 and their final roles are not set in stone though so it will be interesting where will they be assigned and how will they actually perform. One thing is for sure for the both: they have lively arms and the potential to harness it.

After the two promising 2022 arms comes Keaton Winn. Look, I will sing the praises of Winn but he looked unimpressive when he reached Double-A facing more mature competition. The split that he now often throws in the middle of the zone is not enticing swing throughs, the fastball control got worse, the overall operation just got worse. After thinking of him getting protected in the Rule 5 Draft, there is a chance that he will not be scooped up but it might be a blessing in disguise as Winn could continue to gain more confidence facing Double-A competition next year.

Last month, I had William Kempner ahead of both Miles and Simon but now I have Kempner just behind both as his performance in Arizona was not impressive with his three wild pitches. Granted that wild pitches are not primarily the pitcher's fault but if throwing more normally results to more strikes, then I would take that over having a unicorn traits but can't find the zone. I still have him inside the top 30 because he is that unicorn of a pitcher and let's see if he continues the Giants trend of hitting on third-rounders in the Zaidi era (Grant McCray, Kyle Harrison, Mason Black).

The final three prospects are fairly interesting. Patrick Bailey is back from the dead after posting a strong month. His strong peripherals might tell that he's doing well but watching him on film and several eyewitness accounts will shut down any chance of him making the big leagues. He's a strong framer and a solid blocker but he's very unathletic, his right-handed swing should just go, and I am just not sure if he will go back to the top. He's here because he's performed but yeah, it's still a stretch.

Nick Avila has continued to pitch strong out of the Richmond bullpen as more of a set-up guy. He's been solid but he's not been talked about a lot as guys like Waites and R.J. Dabovich take up plenty of attention. I'd say that performance-wise, he's been as good as Waites and he's been clearly better than Dabovich while having similar stuff. Avila should be talked about more, in my opinion.

Last but not the least is Adrian Sugastey. I am personally not sure on what to read of Sugastey's 2022 season. He has not been excellent but has not been terrible either. He's handled the pitching staff well and he's been solid in terms of controlling the running game. The issue probably is expecting that his batting champion ways will continue in Low-A ball but that definitely was not the case as he's looked pretty unathletic on the batter's box like when he was in Arizona last year. I still feel he is a top 30 prospect but the road going back up is going to be very tough as he's on track to become the next Ricardo Genoves.

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SF Giants 2022 Top 30 Prospects: September Update

SF Giants Top Prospects #1 - #10

SF Giants 2022 Top 30 Prospects: September Update

SF Giants 2022 Top 30 Prospects: September Update

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