SF Giants 2022 Top 30 Prospects: September Update

SF Giants 2022 Top 30 Prospects: September Update

SF Giants Top Prospects #11 - #21

Reggie Crawford might actually be Joey Gallo on offense with all the raw power in the world but with a strikeout ocean. The good thing is that being a hitter is the worse side of the two-way spectrum as him being a pitcher is looking like the way to go. I won't dismiss the possibility of Crawford hitting at least 15 homers next season in San Jose, but if he pitches the way that he's flashed before his elbow injury for Team USA and in the Cape, then him being a pitcher is definitely the path to take. The problem is that we'll only know the answer once he actually gets reps on the mound.

David Villar has returned to Sacramento this month and it's been the usual David Villar experience: lots of walks, hitting for power, and lots of strikeouts. However, for the third straight month, his batting average has been below-average and if he's below-average in AAA, well, you can kind of think what happens in the big leagues. We have seen it already, haven't we?

It's back to the pitching crop once again and it's time to talk about a couple of pitchers who are kind of similar in a way. Eric Silva has the tools to be a great starting pitcher. He has the athleticism, the fluidity in his motion, and the stuff to make batters swing and miss at a high rate. The main issue with him this year is the inconsistency of his pitches. He throws strikes but he struggles to finish a hitter quite a bit. Improving his fine control should be the most important thing for him along with adding more weight to his frame to better cope with the rigors of starting. He has the potential, he just has to harness his talent.

After a stellar 2021 season, it feels like Ryan Murphy never really had the type of season that he was looking for. He was hurt on two occasions this year (due to his back) but he still got promoted to Richmond because he is too good for Eugene. Murphy looked a bit thicker this year compared to last year and the strike-throwing regressed just a touch but with him being more of a control pitcher than anything, that touch of regression matters. With a good and healthy off-season, Murphy hopes to bounce back to what he is: the premier strike-thrower in the organization.

The next prospect is someone that I truly love but it's time to face the truth: Heliot Ramos might not actually pan out. After close to 900 plate appearances in the high-Minors including more than 600 plate appearances in Triple-A, Ramos is still struggling to make his mark on the level. Heliot's undergone a massive tweak in his batting stance but the results of that are still to be determined. There's still the argument of he's still young but 600 plate appearances is enough to get acclimated to the level but Ramos just fell flat this year unfortunately.

Right after Heliot is Jairo Pomares who had a great August but even when he's good, he's still having the great strikeout disease. Unlike McCray though, Pomares doesn't have any other plus in his toolbox that will help give him a safe floor if the hit tool fails.

Up next is Nick Zwack who actually impressed me after watching his watchable outings in an Emeralds' uniform. Yes, the fastball might only be in the low-90s and has a sinker shape but he can spot it in the edges of the strike zone. The two things that really caught my attention though are the slider and the cutter. The slider flashes above-average to plus with a late, sweeping bite that just dips below the barrel of the bat, and his cutter also flashes that late movement and it compliments well with his sinker. The results might not be there as an Emerald (might be a tweak by the Giants coaching staff to extract more swing and miss out of him) but I was pretty pleased with what I saw and I can't wait to dive deeper into his film in the winter. Another Nick, Nick Swiney, is just below Zwack. I slotted Swiney below Zwack but the two Nicks are pretty much neck and neck in my opinion. I just like the breaking stuff and strike-throwing from Zwack a touch more.

Next is Trevor McDonald. Look, McDonald's ERA might indicate that he's enjoying the transition from the late-inning relief role to a starting role in the second half of the season but the numbers under the hood indicate not quite the same story. His walk and strikeout rates went worse in the rotation role and he's been getting by with plenty of weak contact because of the sheer velocity that he's throwing the ball (up to 97 MPH as a starter) and the amount of movement that is just overwhelming Low-A hitting. If McDonald can rein it in once again like when he did as a relief guy next season in a rotation role, he will be a stud. If not, then he's a late-inning relief-only dude.

After some thought, I have decided to put Cole Waites back as the best true relief prospect in the organization right now. Waites has been pretty dominant in his stint with Richmond though there were some chinks in the armor (particularly his control issues) but we finally got a hold of his Statcast data when he got promoted to Sacramento this month and boy, oh boy, it's beautiful. The fastball sits in the mid-90s with plus rise on it (just 11" of drop) and the slider's just serviceable enough to make it work. If Waites continues to pound the upper third of the zone with his fastball, he'll be dominant. I sneaked him ahead of Randy Rodriguez because Rodriguez missed some time this month and was pretty iffy with his control.

SF Giants 2022 Top 30 Prospects: September Update

SF Giants Top Prospects #22 - #30

It's time to recognize Tyler Fitzgerald's year. Look, the beginning of Fitzgerald's 2022 season was not pretty at all as he was sporting a strikeout rate of around 50% in April. His second half of the season, however, is when Fitzgerald turned things around with an OPS above .900 and has set his sights on a 20-20 season. A very impressive feat if he could actually achieve it especially from the position that he was in at the start of the season. I feel this is the true Tyler Fitzgerald, someone that we saw last year with Eugene, and there's a non-zero shot of him making the big leagues as he's an overall great person and a hard worker. The strikeouts will always be there for him though but there's power and speed in his game while also capable of playing shortstop.

Tristan Peters is just below Fitzgerald and Peters' Giants stint might not be the best so far but there I can definitely see why the Giants acquired him basically for free. He's a grinder, makes contact, makes good swing decisions, and hustles on the bases and on the outfield. It's a utility-type profile because of the lack of pop but he's definitely a prospect to watch for in 2023.

Speaking of watch out in 2023, the 2022 pitching Draft class are definitely a couple of folks to look out for. Both Spencer Miles and Liam Simon impressed me based on the looks down in the backfields. Look, I know Simon can touch 99 MPH but I was shocked when Miles touched 98 MPH in one-inning bursts. What I was even more shocked is operation on the mound. He's athletic on the mound, he has good fluidity in his motion, and he has an exceptional hip-shoulder separation. Miles might be terrible as a college pitcher but under the guidance of the Giants pitching lab, we might be a potential legitimate pitcher in our hands.

I still got Simon ahead of Miles though for a couple of reasons. First is that I like Simon's breaking ball more than Miles (Simon flashes a 55-grade slider). The second is that I have seen flashes of Simon commanding his fastball. I just like to see Simon finish his motion much cleaner because he is pretty nonchalant with how he follow through on the mound and I see that he's been more consistent in that area as a pro. Still, we need to see both in action in 2023 and their final roles are not set in stone though so it will be interesting where will they be assigned and how will they actually perform. One thing is for sure for the both: they have lively arms and the potential to harness it.

After the two promising 2022 arms comes Keaton Winn. Look, I will sing the praises of Winn but he looked unimpressive when he reached Double-A facing more mature competition. The split that he now often throws in the middle of the zone is not enticing swing throughs, the fastball control got worse, the overall operation just got worse. After thinking of him getting protected in the Rule 5 Draft, there is a chance that he will not be scooped up but it might be a blessing in disguise as Winn could continue to gain more confidence facing Double-A competition next year.

Last month, I had William Kempner ahead of both Miles and Simon but now I have Kempner just behind both as his performance in Arizona was not impressive with his three wild pitches. Granted that wild pitches are not primarily the pitcher's fault but if throwing more normally results to more strikes, then I would take that over having a unicorn traits but can't find the zone. I still have him inside the top 30 because he is that unicorn of a pitcher and let's see if he continues the Giants trend of hitting on third-rounders in the Zaidi era (Grant McCray, Kyle Harrison, Mason Black).

The final three prospects are fairly interesting. Patrick Bailey is back from the dead after posting a strong month. His strong peripherals might tell that he's doing well but watching him on film and several eyewitness accounts will shut down any chance of him making the big leagues. He's a strong framer and a solid blocker but he's very unathletic, his right-handed swing should just go, and I am just not sure if he will go back to the top. He's here because he's performed but yeah, it's still a stretch.

Nick Avila has continued to pitch strong out of the Richmond bullpen as more of a set-up guy. He's been solid but he's not been talked about a lot as guys like Waites and R.J. Dabovich take up plenty of attention. I'd say that performance-wise, he's been as good as Waites and he's been clearly better than Dabovich while having similar stuff. Avila should be talked about more, in my opinion.

Last but not the least is Adrian Sugastey. I am personally not sure on what to read of Sugastey's 2022 season. He has not been excellent but has not been terrible either. He's handled the pitching staff well and he's been solid in terms of controlling the running game. The issue probably is expecting that his batting champion ways will continue in Low-A ball but that definitely was not the case as he's looked pretty unathletic on the batter's box like when he was in Arizona last year. I still feel he is a top 30 prospect but the road going back up is going to be very tough as he's on track to become the next Ricardo Genoves.