Ranking the top 4 shortstop free agents for the SF Giants

The offseason is right around the corner and the free-agent speculation is just beginning. Robert Murray of FanSided stoked the flame for SF Giants fans when he suggested that the Giants would land one of the big free agents while naming Trea Turner as a potential fit.

Ranking the top 4 shortstop free agents for the SF Giants

Of course, it bears mentioning that the Giants already have a shortstop in Brandon Crawford under contract. The longtime Giants shortstop is due $16 million in 2023 in the final year of a two-year extension, $32 million extension he signed in 2021.

Murray suggests that Turner, or any of the prospective shortstops, could slide to second base for one season and then switch back to shortstop once Crawford's contract expires. If the Giants do target one of the top free-agent shortstops, who would be the best fit?

1. Xander Bogaerts

There are a lot of good shortstops in baseball, and somehow, that has led to Xander Bogaerts being overshadowed. Perhaps, overshadow is not the correct term as he has been selected to four All-Star teams while receiving down-ballot MVP votes in the last four seasons.

He has been one of the best players over the last decade and it feels like he does not receive the appreciation he deserves. The Boston Red Sox certainly appreciate him as they locked him up to a six-year, $120 million pact in 2019. This deal includes an opt-out clause that the 10-year veteran will likely exercise in an effort to land one more payday in his career.

The right-handed bat is in the midst of another strong season as he has registered a .313/.382/.463 (133 OPS+) with 14 home runs, 68 RBI, and 83 runs while being worth 5.5 bWAR in 605 plate appearances. This includes an 8.9 percent walk rate against an 18.8 percent strikeout rate.

Bogaerts home run output is unusually low in 2022, but he has eclipsed 20 homers in three of the last five seasons. He can hit and hit with power.

The one knock on Bogaerts is his defense. The 29-year-old has been worth -53 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and -35 Outs Above Average (OAA) in his career at shortstop. A move off of the position is likely sooner rather than later. That said, he still provides significant overall value with the bat.

I like Bogaerts for a lot of reasons including his offensive upside as well as his age (29) and his durability. He has appeared in over 140 games in seven of the last eight full seasons. In terms of track record and predictability, he is likely the best option.

Ranking the top 4 shortstop free agents for the SF Giants

2. Trea Turner

Trea Turner can do everything on the baseball field. It is a shame that he plays for the division rivals but I will not hold that against him if he signs with San Francisco.

Oddly enough, the San Diego Padres selected turner in the first round of the 2014 draft but immediately shipped him to the Washington Nationals in a three-team deal that brought Wil Myers to San Diego. It was an odd situation as the speedy infielder was not eligible to be traded right away, so he remained in the Padres organization for about six months after the trade while knowingly being the player to be named later.

Since that trade, Turner has firmly established himself as one of the better players in the game. He has been an All-Star in each of the last two seasons and finished seventh in the NL MVP voting last year.

The 2022 campaign has been no different as he has slashed .299/.345/.472 (122 OPS+) with 20 home runs, 97 RBI, and 95 runs while being worth 4.9 bWAR in 669 plate appearances. This includes 25 stolen bases in 28 opportunities to go along with a 6.4 percent walk rate against a 17.8 percent strikeout rate.

Unlike Xander Bogaerts, Turner is excellent with the glove at shortstop as he has been worth 10 DRS and 11 OAA across eight seasons. He has experience in center field and maintains the athleticism and sprint speed to be able to handle the position in a full-time role if needed.

There is a lot to like with Turner. Perhaps, my one concern with him is how his offensive value, which is derived to some degree by speed, will age. Plus, he is not necessarily a true power hitter like some of the other top free-agent shortstops.

I have a feeling that Turner will receive a substantially larger contract than Bogaerts and he certainly deserves a contract of that nature. I like Bogaerts' offensive profile more than Turner's but you cannot go wrong with either option.

Ranking the top 4 shortstop free agents for the SF Giants

4. Dansby Swanson

I do not think there is much of a difference in terms of overall impact between Xander Bogaerts, Trea Turner, or Carlos Correa. You can make a case for any of them being the top option and you would not be wrong. However, Dansby Swanson is my least favorite of the free-agent shortstops.

This may date my a bit but I remember watching Erick Dampier of the Golden State Warriors during the 2003-2004 season. The team was not good, but Dampier had a career year on the floor as he recorded 12.3 points per game to go with 12.0 rebounds per game.

Of course, it was a contract year for Dampier, so he was motivated to make a good last impression before free agency. My Dad and I watched nearly every game that season and I remember my Dad yelling, "Where was this guy five seasons ago?!" The point he was making is that contract years can produce sometimes flukey results.

I am not saying that is the case with Swanson but I am skeptical of a player who happens to have their best season in a contract year. It really makes evaluating a player difficult because he does not have a reliable track record. That is what separates Bogaerts, Correa, and Turner from Swanson. There is a predictable track record with the first three but that is not necessarily the case with Swanson.

Nevertheless, he is picking the right time to flourish. The right-handed bad has tallied a .279/.331/.441 line (114 OPS+) with 22 home runs, 92 RBI, and 94 runs while being worth 5.2 bWAR in 664 plate appearances. The RBI (92), and runs (94) both represent career highs by a considerable margin.

His OPS+ is just one point below a career high that he set in a small sample of 145 plate appearances in 2016. In the five seasons prior to this one, Swanson had registered an 89 OPS+ at the plate, so I think he has the lowest offensive upside of any of the options.

That said, Swanson is an excellent fielder as he has been worth 13 DRS and 32 OAA across seven seasons. He will provide considerable value with the glove, but this may come with several seasons of below-average production at the plate.

He is in line to receive a substantial contract but I would be hesitant to hand out that type of deal for a player who has not consistently produced at an All-Star level like the other options.