Ranking the top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets in terms of fit

The SF Giants might have at least one vacancy to fill in the starting rotation if Carlos Rodón signs elsewhere in free agency. While they may not be able to replicate his production, there are a few free-agent starters who fit what the Giants value in a pitcher.

Ranking the top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets in terms of fit

Recently, we have been ranking the top Giants pitching targets based on certain qualifies like SO/W ratio, ground ball rate, and HR/9 rate. The Giants value these qualities and they are important because teams that generally excel in these areas tend to have better win-loss records than those that do not.

Giants starters ranked fourth in SO/W ratio (3.94), first in ground ball rate (49.1%), and first in HR/9 (0.77) in baseball. Oddly enough, the Giants were the only team among the top 10 in terms of SO/W ratio to not reach the playoffs.

In many cases, some of the better teams in these categories tend to not only reach the playoffs, but finish first in their division as well. The Giants were the exception but the point is, San Francisco has a type when it comes to starting pitchers. They like pitchers who fill up the strike zone, keep the ball on the ground, and prevent home runs at an above-average rate.

Of course, some of the top arms like Carlos Rodón, Justin Verlander, and Jacob deGrom make a lot of sense as well. However, in the case of Verlander and deGrom, they have to pick San Francisco for a lot of reasons including the potential for contending.

That might be a tough sell given that the Giants finished with an 81-81 record and play in a competitive division along with the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres. Verlander, deGrom, or Rodón would certainly fit what the Giants want and need in a pitcher but the front office is creative and adverse to long-term deals.

That is why they target qualities. They could easily target the best pitchers on the market but that takes a lot in terms of dollars and years. Given this and what the Giants like in a pitcher, there are a few who make a lot of sense as under-the-radar targets.

1. Chriss Bassitt - 3.40 SO/W, 48.8% GB rate, and a 0.94 HR/9 rate

There are only four free-agent starting pitchers (Min. 100 innings) who posted an above-average SO/W (2.89), ground ball rate (42.5%), and HR/9 rate (1.16) in 2022. There was actually five but the fifth, Clayton Kershaw, has already re-signed with the Dodgers in a move that surprised no one.

Chris Bassitt might be might favorite target for a lot of reasons. He is not the best option, but he fits what the Giants like in a pitcher. Plus, he is heading into his age-34 season in 2023, meaning that there is a ceiling in terms of contract length.

For a front office that does not like to hand out long-term deals, Bassitt fits the mold of a pitcher who could be signed to a deal of three or four years. MLB Trade Rumors predicted that he would receive a three-year, $60 million deal this winter.

That is a lot of money to spend on any player but the eight-year veteran is showing no signs of slowing down. He posted a 3.42 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 1.41 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, and a 3.41 SO/W ratio in 30 starts for the New York Mets.

This is the third straight full season that Bassitt has made at least 25 starts, which is a number that would carry value for a Giants rotation that is high in injury risk.

The right-handed hurler strikes out hitters at around a league-average rate, but he does well to keep the ball on the ground and in the ball park. In terms of pitching outcomes, he is probably the most similar to Logan Webb and Alex Cobb on the list.

He likely would not replicate Carlos Rodón's performance, but he would represent a very solid No. 2 or 3 pitcher. Perhaps, the biggest knock on him is the fact that he has a qualifying offer attached to his name. Any team that signs him will lose a draft pick. That could be enough of a deterrent to prevent Bassitt from landing in San Francisco but it is hard to ignore that he does a lot of what the Giants like in a pitcher.

Ranking the top 3 SF Giants starting pitching targets

3. Taijuan Walker - 2.94 SO/W ratio, 46.2% GB rate, and a 0.86 HR/9 rate

Taijuan Walker is a free agent yet again and it feels like he is a Giants fit yet again. I suppose the most pressing question is what number he will wear next season for the Giants if Aaron Judge is already wearing No. 99?

Maybe I am getting ahead of myself. Walker has put together a solid career as a mid-rotation arm and looks to score one more payday. The right-handed hurler just finished a two-year, $17 million pact with the New York Mets where he posted a 3.98 ERA in 59 starts. His deal includedd a $6 million player options but he decided not to exercise it.

The 2022 season was a solid one for Walker as he registerd a 3.49 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.94 SO/W ratio, and a 0.86 HR/9 rate in 29 starts for the Mets.

MLB Trade Rumors is predicting that Walker will receive a four-year, $52 million pact in free agency. It is hard to believe that 2023 will only be his age-30 season as it feels like he has been in baseball for over a decade.

The length may be what scares the Giants away. The righty could certainly demand four years given his age, but we have not seen San Francisco's front office go to that length since Farhan Zaidi was hired as team president of baseball operations in November of 2018.

He fits the Giants archetype for a pitcher but may find a better deal elsewhere. I mentioned that there were four free-agent starters who had an above-average SO/W ratio, ground ball rate, and a HR/9 rate in 2022. The fourth was José Quintana, who had a very nice season in 2022. I think teams will be weary of the fact that this was his best season in years.

On a different note, Jameson Taillon seems like a fit as well. I think in the case of some of these options, it is a hard sell because the drop off in production from Carlos Rodón is steep, whereas it might be more tolerable with a Chris Bassitt or a Ross Stripling.