Ranking the SF Giants' arbitration eligible players by how much they should cost

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The 2023 season is over for the San Francisco Giants and that means fans must turn their attention to the offseason. If last offseason is any indication, the Giants' front office is at least going to try to go after some of the big names on the free agent market, although this year's free agent class is not quite as exciting especially with Shohei Ohtani hurt.

Before that can happen, though, the Giants have to make some decisions regarding their arbitration-eligible players. Arbitration is a somewhat arcane and confusing process at first, so here is a quick rundown of what it is and what it means for San Francisco.

What is arbitration in baseball? How many SF Giants players are arbitration-eligible?

The quick and dirty explanation of salary arbitration is that players with more than three years of service time but less than six are eligible for arbitration. There are exceptions such as "Super Two" players as well as young players that sign contract extensions that lock in their cost for their arbitration years, but that is the general gist.

The two important deadlines when it comes to arbitration are the non-tender deadline and the arbitration agreement deadline. The non-tender deadline, which is on November 17th, 2023 this year, is the deadline for teams to decide to begin the arbitration process with a player. The early years of players' contracts are not guaranteed, so if a team decides that what a given player is likely to get in arbitration isn't worth it, they can "non-tender" them which functionally means that that player is released.

The arbitration agreement deadline is in mid-January and that is when the two sides have to either come to an agreement on the player's salary for the upcoming season. If they can't, each side "files" the salary amount they want, they go to an arbitration hearing, and a neutral third party arbitrator decides which figure will be used to pay them.

As for how many Giants players are eligible for arbitration this year, lets take a look at all of them as well as how much they are expected to make in arbitration. All arbitration estimates will be coming from MLB Trade Rumors as their projections have been the gold standard for several years now.

Mike Yastrzemski

Entering his third year of arbitration, Yaz is likely to get a raise over the $6.1 million he made this year as salaries typically scale up in the later years of arbitration. However, his case is a bit tricky as his missed a big chunk of time in 2023 while dealing with hamstring issues. This estimate feels right, but it wouldn't be surprising if the two sides go to a hearing to hash it out.

Estimated arbitration salary: $7.3 million

J.D. Davis

JD Davis had a strong start to the season, but faded in the second half in route to a 0.8 rWAR season with a .248/.325/.413 line in 2023. This is his last year of arbitration eligibility and is certain to get a raise over his $4.21 million salary from this season, but it wouldn't be all that shocking to see him get less than MLBTR's estimate given his inconsistency over the last couple of seasons.

Estimated arbitration salary: $6.8 million

Thairo Estrada

Thairo looked primed to get a really nice payday in the first half when he was one of the best players in the Giants' lineup. Unfortunately, he wasn't the same guy at the plate once he returned from the injured list and ended the season with a decent, but unexciting .271/.315/.416 line in 2023. This is Thairo's second year of arbitration eligibility and while his numbers at the plate weren't overly exciting, he does provide a lot of value defensively and with his legs, so this estimate feels pretty close to spot on.

Estimated arbitration salary: $4.8 million

Austin Slater

There is certainly a trend of having a bunch of "meh" Giants hitters being arb eligible this year and that trend continues with Austin Slater. Slater put up a .748 OPS in 2023 despite having little power to speak of and is in his last season of arbitration eligibility. He'll get a raise, but not a huge one and he is also a guy that could get non-tendered if the Giants find an upgrade this offseason they like.

Estimated arbitration salary: $3.6 million

LaMonte Wade Jr.

LaMonte Wade Jr. was a breath of fresh air for the Giants in 2023. He hit for some power, got on base at a high clip (.373 OBP), and ended up giving San Francisco 2.6 rWAR this season. This is his second year of arbitration, so that will suppress his salary a bit, but it wouldn't be all that shocking if he got more than his estimate either in a settlement with the team or from an arbitration hearing.

Estimated arbitration salary: $3.3 million

Tyler Rogers

If there is one class of player that is typically undervalued by arbitration, it is non-closing relievers and unfortunately that is exactly what Tyler Rogers is going to have to deal with. Rogers was awesome yet again for the Giants and would normally be in line for a hefty raise if he was a closer. As it stands, he may indeed have to settle for doubling his pay over this year.

Estimated arbitration salary: $3.2 million

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