Predicting where each SF Giants free agent will sign in 2024

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The San Francisco Giants are coming off a very disappointing finish to the 2023 season and entering an offseason with a lot at stake. They were able to replace Gabe Kapler at manager very quickly with the highly regarded Bob Melvin which should help, but this Giants roster needs a good bit of help and is about to lose several several guys to free agency.

While it is far from certain that all of San Francisco's free agents will actually end up leaving, several will have new teams in 2024. Where could they end up?

SF Giants Free Agent Predictions

The Giants are in a somewhat unique position to start the offseason in that they have four different guys in Michael Conforto (player), Ross Stripling (player), Sean Manaea (player), and Alex Cobb (club) with options for 2024. Stripling has already announced that he will opt in and Manaea seems like a lock to do so as well, but Conforto is more up in the air and Cobb's hip injury clouds his future in San Francisco. Let's take a look at the Giants' free agents and where they could end up.

Joc Pederson

Joc is the ultimate "vibes guy" and his performance in 2022 was strong enough for the Giants to extend the qualifying offer to before the 2023 season. Joc happily signed it, but then proceeded to put together a down season where he slashed .235/.348/.416 with just 15 homers in 121 games.

Pederson's free agency will be fascinating to watch as while it does seem clear that he will not be with the Giants in 2024, he should still be in demand as a DH. The Yankees are going to get mentioned given that Joc is a lefty bat that can feasibly play in the outfield, but one questions whether he would be down to deal with New York's clean cut culture. Our guess is that another AL East team, the Blue Jays, ends up being his new team as they could use a lefty DH with some power who is great for a clubhouse and Toronto looks like they will be in the thick of the playoff hunt yet again next season.

Prediction: Blue Jays - Two years, $28 million with incentives

Michael Conforto

The contract option that holds the greatest mystery at the moment is Michael Conforto's player option for $18 million for 2024. Conforto's agent, Scott Boras, is remarkably good at getting top dollar for his guys, but Conforto did not play particularly well in 2023 with a .718 OPS after missing the 2022 season due to injury.

The best guess here is that Conforto opts in and takes the guaranteed $18 million for next season. This gives him a nice payday and allows him to rebuild his value before hitting free agency again after the 2024 season. This isn't great news for the Giants as that is a nice chunk of change for a guy that isn't a lock to produce, but Conforto should be motivated to play well in 2024 and he gets a full normal offseason to get right.

Prediction: Exercises $18 million player option and stays with the Giants

Brandon Crawford

Oh Brandon Crawford, it appears as though your time has come. Crawford was one of the Giants' best players for a decade before injuries and Father Time caught up with him. Coming off a 2023 season where he hit .194 and looked like a shadow of his former self, the writing is officially on the wall.

There is a chance that Crawford tries to catch on elsewhere in 2024 and there are a few low budget teams that could be interested. However, the smarter money is that after he takes some time to think, Brandon will eventually land on retirement once he realizes that there aren't going to be contenders that will want to pay real money for his services.

Prediction: Crawford retires and enjoys some well-earned downtime

Alex Wood

Alex Wood was excellent during the 2021 season for the Giants where he posted a 3.83 ERA in 26 starts and was rewarded with a two year contract from San Francisco worth $25 million. Unfortunately for the Giants, Wood hasn't approached that level of production in the ensuing two seasons as he averaged a 4.77 ERA in his 55 appearances total in 2022 and 2023 and San Francisco started to favor him out of the bullpen.

Wood is actually in a very similar position this offseason to when he arrived in San Francisco in 2021. There are some real concerns that he won't be able to start long-term and his durability is questionable, but someone will take a chance on him on a one year deal similar to the one he signed with San Fran. The Brewers make some amount of sense as he should be cheap, they have a tendency to get the most out of their pitchers, and need significant help in their rotation with Brandon Woodruff on the mend.

Prediction: Brewers - One year, $3.5 million

Alex Cobb

This is a brutal one because Cobb's $10 million option for 2024 looked like it would be an easy decision for the Giants' front office to exercise. Cobb put up 2.6 rWAR in 28 starts for San Francisco this season with a 3.87 ERA and he made the All-Star team this year. For $10 million, he would normally be a bargain.

Unfortunately, Cobb's hip injury and subsequent surgery clouds the entire picture and there is a real argument that the team shouldn't bring him back until they know how he is going to recover. However, $10 million isn't a large sum of money and Cobb's six month timetable to return should mean that he will be able to pitch a good bit next season, so we'll guess that he comes back.

Prediction: Giants exercise his player option and he (hopefully) returns relatively early in the 2024 season.

Jakob Junis

Jake Junis is not particularly sexy as a middle relief option. He relies heavily on his slider which grades out well and his strikeout rate spiked in 2023 to 10 K/9, but his fastball is middling at best and his only okay 3.87 ERA was the best mark he has posted as a big leaguer.

It would be completely fine if Junis came back, but the Giants shouldn't break the bank to bring him back. One interesting landing spot for Junis would be the Phillies who have some high octane arms in their bullpen and Junis would be a nice change of pace guy to have in the sixth or seventh inning.

Prediction: Phillies - Two years, $6.5 million

John Brebbia

Of the Giants' relievers that are set to hit free agency, Brebbia is arguably the most exciting one. He struck out 11 batters per nine innings pitched this season and has been one of San Francisco's most consistent relievers for the last couple of years outside of a lat injury that sidelined him for a chunk of the 2023 season.

Assuming he is completely healthy again, the Giants bringing him back makes a ton of sense. Brebbia is 33 years old, so giving him anything but a one year deal is probably unwise. However, giving him a slight pay bump on a one year deal seems like a deal that could be reasonable for both sides.

Prediction: Re-signs with the Giants - One year, $3.2 million

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