The San Francisco Giants have been in freefall of late. Since the trade deadline when the Giants
decided to essentially stand pat despite being in contention both in the NL West and the wild card race, the Giants have gone from probable playoff team to fighting for their lives. The division is completely out of reach these day and the Giants are now two games out of a wild card spot thanks to a five game losing streak.
At just one game above .500, the Giants doing nothing at the trade deadline is looking worse and worse. However, we can't unring the bell there and instead the focus now should be on what can and should happen this offseason to get the organization back on track. To start to figure that out, an accounting of what the Giants' payroll looks like for next season.
Current projected 2024 SF Giants payroll
All Giants payroll figures for the purposes of this have been pulled from Spotrac and are subject to change. Sometimes unknown incentives or details of contracts become public knowledge and can mess with the payroll along with options, buyouts, arbitration figures, and not tendering contracts to arbitration-eligible players. This is an initial glance, not the final numbers. One important figure to keep in mind is the luxury tax threshold which will be $237 million in 2024.
Total projected 2024 payroll: $122,000,000
Projected luxury tax payroll: $130,666,666
Variable costs: The Giants have an abnormally high number of guys with player options for 2024 in Michael Conforto ($18 million), Sean Manaea ($12.5 million), and Ross Stripling ($12.5 million). Stripling and Manaea seem like mortal locks to exercise their options while Conforto's future is more uncertain. The Giants also have a club option for Alex Cobb at $10 million, but it seems fairly likely that San Francisco will exercise it especially given how expensive pitching has gotten in free agency.
Beyond options, the Giants have several players that are arbitration eligible. The guys that are the most likely to cost real money in arbitration are JD Davis and Mike Yastrzemski as Davis has played well leading up to his last year of arbitration eligibility while Yaz made $6.1 million in 2023 and will get raise in his third year of arbitration. Other arb eligible players of note include LaMonte Wade Jr., Tyler Rogers, and Thairo Estrada.
How the SF Giants' current payroll projections could effect them this offseason
Money should not be a problem heading into this coming offseason. San Francisco was already trying their damndest to spend a lot of money in free agency last offseason and that was before having Joc Pederson, Brandon Crawford, Alex Wood, and others off their payroll. The Giants seemingly have a lot of holes to fill on their roster in 2024 and while prospects like Marco Luciano, Kyle Harrison, and others will help the cause, it is fair to expect San Francisco to be major players in free agency and the trade market this offseason.
While the Giants' seemingly have tons of room on their ledger to add stars, the bigger issue is who is going to be making the decisions. The organization previously pledged to keep Farhan Zaidi around for 2024 and beyond, but that was before the front office punted the trade deadline and the team collapsed in the second half. The smart money is probably on Zaidi coming back for at least one more season, but it does seem less certain that happens than before the season started.