Introduction to the Top 30 SF Giants Rankings and Scouting Philosophies

As an evaluator, meshing traditional scouting with advanced analytics is always the best way to evaluate. But between the two, traditional scouting takes priority over advanced analytics because of the study: amateur and minor league prospects. While the lack of free, publicly accessible advanced data in all the Minors (only one league has Statcast data) hurts, it is better to evaluate SF Giants prospects traditionally because of the high variance of a prospect's development curve.

Introduction to the Top 30 SF Giants Rankings and Scouting Philosophies

There will be times when a person who primarily focuses on analytics writes up a prospect and states that "if this prospect can tap his raw power, he will become a star" but they can't specifically answer how. To answer it, looking at the player's swing is a must. Are the swing mechanics and bat path conducive to power? Will a change of bat path affect their overall hitting ability? Is it more of a swing issue or an approach issue? For that, you have to do scouting.

Thinking of prospects solely from a fantasy perspective might lead to missing out on the nuances that can only be answered by deep scouting. It is like knowing the answers to the five WH questions (where, when, what, who, why) but missing out on the crucial "how". This is not a knock against persons who cover prospects in fantasy baseball, and some people are well-respected, like Chris Clegg of Fantrax. If you watch them play, put yourself in the batter's perspective or the pitcher in every at-bat, and confirm your assessment by looking at the numbers or vice versa. That is a better process of evaluation.

Unfortunately, doing in-person scouting is impossible because of the location issue (I live in the Philippines). However, critical and holistic film study is a strong alternative using videos from MiLB.tv, YouTube, or on social media. The process is: putting myself in the pitcher's perspective and the batter, thinking of what the pitcher is going to throw next, what is the batter's game plan on the box, and what are the tendencies or patterns that both the pitcher and the hitter has in real-time. Checking how good-looking the batter’s swing is, how good is the pitcher's movement on the pitches, and how good the players are on defense are also critical.

It slightly takes the fun out when watching games, but the benefit of doing film study is the ability to watch one clip over and over, something that can't be done in person. Some things that could be only perceived as exclusive when watching games in-person are also being shown in broadcasts as well, such as the emotions and body language of the players. As an immersive evaluator, feeling the emotion of the players and their mentality by watching their body language are also important.

The Grading Scale

Before reading the top 30 prospects of the Giants’ organization entering the 2022 season, it is important first to know how grading was done. Those familiar with reading prospect reports should be familiar with the 20-80 grading scale. The 20-80 grading scale used here is a changed grading scale used during my Prospects Worldwide days. That grading scale is refined to be as close to what the industry/professional scouting community is currently using.

It means no pluses on the tool grades (for example, 45+). The modifications done to the old grading scale include removal of the 35-grade, the addition of catcher pop times, and adjustment of baselines for a couple of statistics and measurable.

Aside from a prospect’s tool grades, the 20-80 scale above is also used for grading Present Value (PV) and Future Value (FV) to represent the overall grade of the prospect. To explain, PV is the value that a prospect could provide if that prospect is promoted to the big leagues right now. In simplest terms, it answers the question of "how well will this prospect play in the big leagues right now?". FV is the value that the prospect would most likely provide if everything goes as planned.

It should be understood that every prospect's overall ceiling is an 80, but there are a lot of factors that could lower or even keep that 80-overall grade down. One example that could lower a player's FV is a below-average hit tool. The definition of future value is phrased as "as planned" because sometimes a prospect could overachieve or underachieve because of the varying development curves of prospects and baseball players.

Some prospects looked great as a prospect but struggled hard in the big leagues (e.g., Brandon Wood). Some prospects were solid rather than impressive but exploded after reaching the big leagues (e.g., Bryan Reynolds). Some prospects were legitimate late-bloomers (e.g., R.A. Dickey). These situations happened before and will happen again in the future.

The grading scale used to evaluate the tool grades and the PV and FV of the 150 San Francisco Giants’ prospects can be found here.

Frame And Projectability

Before starting doing a player’s evaluation, it is always important to first look at the player's height, weight, frame, athleticism, and projectability. Listed height and weight on sites such as MiLB.com can often be misleading, especially for Dominican prospects, where it is common to see a player who weighs heavier than what is listed.

Any frame is acceptable as long as they move well for their size and shape. However, super tall players, especially pitchers, are worrying. Pitchers that are usually above 6'7" typically struggle with body control on the mound unless they are great athletes and it shows up in their mechanics. A pitcher like Sean Hjelle is a great example. He is 6'11.5" but he is an excellent athlete with the body control of a player that is more than half a foot shorter than him. Also, his mechanics is not a slow, deliberate motion but a smooth, dynamic, and rhythmic motion that results in an above-average command.

Projectability is the next aspect to look for after checking for height and weight. Projectability is predicting how a player's body frame will grow with age. It can be a bit difficult to predict, as genetics play a part in it. However, how to predict projectability if a prospect's family background is not entirely known?

Think of a player's frame as a trapezoid flipped upside down. You can google for trapezoid but simply cut a triangle horizontally then take the lower half. That is a trapezoid. Now flip that horizontally. There are only two things to look for: the broadness of the shoulders and the size of the hips. In an inverted trapezoid, are the two bases or the two straight lines at the top and bottom.

A broad shoulder is often a great start. However, in my opinion, the hips are more important in terms of projection than the shoulders because the hips will determine how much weight, hopefully, muscle, a player can tuck in the thighs and waist. A big hip usually means a big thigh bone. If a player has broad shoulders but has a small hip, the chances are the player will not gain a lot of weight. The prospect will gain weight, but only around the chest area. If a prospect is still a thin athlete but has a big hip, the player will gain weight as the player gets older because there is plenty of real estate to keep that weight gain.

Ideally, what to look out for is someone with just a moderately sized hip. That way, the prospect can gain weight but not gain too much and the prospect will have plenty of fat in his body if he overeats. A prospect with a smaller hip can still gain plenty of fat if the prospect overeats, but the chances are the prospect will not carry that weight well throughout his/her body.

The best way to see the athleticism of a baseball player is to see them on the field playing defense. If a prospect can make it look easy on defense, that is a sign of a great athlete. If you want the pure athletic metrics, though, it is best to look at their test times when they were still high schoolers attending showcases.

Scouting And Grading Position Players

The 20-80 grading scale is used to evaluate the six core tools for position players. Those tools are:

Hit - Answers the question of "how well can a hitter hit a baseball?". It is a combination of innate for the barrel, hand-eye coordination, actual swing mechanics which can get very complicated and technical, eye (can the hitter discern different types of spin), strike zone knowledge (does the hitter know where are the edges of his/her strike zone), plate discipline (can the hitter lay off pitches at the edge of the zone), pitch selection (does the hitter swing only at fastballs, only swing at low pitches), swing decision (why did the hitter take the hanging slider at the middle of the plate or can the hitter adjust in the middle of an at-bat), and intelligence at the plate (does the hitter game a game plan when the hitter enters the batter's box).

All of those things encompass the most complicated tool in baseball to evaluate. Even for a player with a high batting average, it is still tough to determine a player's hit tool, as it is important to watch the player's at-bats in detail.

Raw Power - Answers the questions "how hard can a hitter hit a baseball?" and "how far can a hitter hit a baseball?". It is usually answered by data gathered and looking at a hitter's maximum exit velocity. In the Major Leagues, just type " (player x) savant" or " (player x) Fangraphs" on search engines, then information can be obtained. For the Minor Leagues, though, it's different. There are sites like FanGraphs that have the data but it is incomplete and for an actual scout in the field, on-hand data is not available unless asking a ballpark personnel in-person.

For that, there is a handy guide that is available on FanGraphs' Eric Longenhagen and ESPN's Kiley McDaniel's book "Future Value". The duo mentioned a chart that McDaniel used when he was with the Yankees that determines a player's raw power with the distance of the baseballs hit during batting practice with all the elements being equal (wind, swing effort, baseball quality, etc.).

Let's say a right-handed hitter is doing batting practice. If that furthest-hit ball hit by that hitter traveled only to the left-field foul pole, it's a 40-grade raw power. If it is only to the left-center gap, it's a 45-grade raw power. If it is to the center-field warning track, it's a 50-grade raw power. If it got over the right-center field gap, it's a 55-grade raw power. If it got over the center-field fence with a set distance of 400 feet, it's a 60-grade raw power. If it got over the center-field fence and got over the wall by around 30-40 feet, it's a 70-grade raw power. And if it got over 50-feet, it's 80-grade. It's not the most accurate of depictions of raw power, but if you are planning to do some scouting with nothing but your eyes, it's a pretty handy guide to have.

Game Power - Answers the question of "how well can a hitter use his raw power in a game?". Home run total is the simplest answer, especially in the Minors, because of a lack of data. However, not all home runs are created equal. In the Majors, average exit velocity and 90th percentile exit velocity are better indicators of power than home run total. In the Minors, FanGraphs has average exit velocity, but it is incomplete for several players. Digging deeper and exit velocities can also be found on team-run accounts on Twitter like @sfgprospects and sites with access to Synergy data.

Looking at isolated power (ISO) or the difference between slugging percentage and batting average is tricky because speed can affect the number. If a player didn't exceed hitting five home runs but has at least 25 doubles and five triples to his stat line, it will probably result in a pretty good ISO grade.

The most important factor for game power is the swing itself. If it's a line-drive swing or a swing with a flatter bat path, it will usually result in low home run numbers even though the hitter can still hit the ball hard. The hit tool and the overall approach in the batter's box also affect game power a bit, with the approach more in play over the hit tool, but are not the deal-breakers when determining a player's game power tool.

Speed - Answers the question of "how fast is this player?". Raw speed is the easiest tool to grade in-game as it only needs one piece of equipment: a stopwatch, either an actual stopwatch or the stopwatch function on a smartphone. Raw speed can easily be graded by measuring the time it took for a batter to get to first base from the batter’s box after the ball made contact with the bat.

What makes speed the easiest tool to measure during film study is that it can be done during a game, whereas raw power takes place pre-game and has to be evaluated in-person or rely on outside sources. For high school prospects, raw speed can also be measured by looking at 60-yard dash data if available.

Like raw power, raw speed is only as good as how a player uses it in-game. For example, a player has 70-grade or plus-plus raw speed but that player is only successful in stealing bases at only a 50% clip. It knocks down his final speed grade a bit to potentially a 60.

Speed is often associated with base-stealing, but it is also associated with the range in defense. It might be tough to have a certain player to stick at shortstop with a fringy-grade speed unless that player plays insane defense at shortstop or for a center fielder stick up the middle.

Arm - Answers the question "how hard can he throw on defense?". The arm tool is an easy tool to evaluate for catchers but a tough tool to evaluate for infielders and outfielders. For catchers, it is measured by pop time, or the time elapsed from when the ball hits the catcher’s mitt to when the intended fielder catches the throw.

Like raw speed, it can be measured by a stopwatch and the quicker the pop time is, the better. The pop time grades that are on the grading scale are the average of Isaan Sethi of Saberscience’s study on pop time grades using Statcast data and the average of Baseball America’s pop time ranges in their 20-80 grading scale.

For the other seven position players, it is hard to evaluate because there is no data available on arm strength from throws to first base by the defenders in the Minors unless they had a history of throwing on the mound and the velocities on their fastballs are known. For high school turned pro prospects who attended showcases to show off their arm strength, their velocities are available, but it is important to watch their fielding drills, particularly infield drills, the effort when throwing as plenty of prospects nowadays overthrow. For outfielders, overthrowing is more tolerable but must still be accurate to home plate during actual games. Outfield assist is an unreliable stat to use because of the nuances in play (e.g., a left fielder throwing out a runner on third base).

If there is no other choice, eye-balling is the only way. A good rule of thumb to use is to use the base runner's speed tool. If a base runner has plus speed and a shortstop, for example, threw him out in a bang-bang play, that shortstop will usually get a plus arm grade. This method needs a good sample size to produce a solid assessment.

Another aspect that affects the arm grade is how well can a player make off-platform throws in multiple arm angles consistently while maintaining their accuracy. People in the scouting community call it "arm utility". People who watch the NFL will associate arm utility with Patrick Mahomes.

Essentially, if a player can keep their arm strength and accuracy while throwing on the run, bare-handed, on his knees, or even on his back, while jumping to the air, while spinning, with his momentum taking him away from first base for an infielder, throwing sidearm, throwing underhand, and throwing from a high arm slot aside from the routine throws.

Field - Answers the question of "how well can he defend his position?". Grading defense in the Minors is quite challenging because most prospects will struggle with errors associated with reps, although the players who are good on defense stand out because they can make the plays that you will usually see big leaguers make.

There are three levels of defense. First off is with the catcher position. The key things to look for when grading catcher defense are agility, framing, and mental ability. For agility, having active legs and effort when preventing passed balls and wild pitches is highly important. Blocking balls in the dirt with the chest pad instead of picking with the mitt is still preferred, even though it is labor-intensive. Agility is also clear on a catcher’s get off from the crouch when throwing out base-runners or fielding balls in play.

The second is framing. It might not be important in the next three years, but with framing still a countable stat, it still matters. Personally, framing is not highly important, but having a soft mitt when catching high velocity and breaking balls is essential.

The third and the most important part is the mental side of the game. Building rapport with your pitching staff, knowing what the pitcher currently has confidence in throwing, knowing what pitches or area of the strike zone does the opposing hitter struggles to hit, understanding swing outcomes, and creating a plan on the fly to attack those said swing outcomes or even thinking further ahead for a smart hitter to get a hitter out.

Personally, a catcher does not need to be the leader of the entire field, but he has to be the leader of the battery. Playing catcher is a highly stressful job but as the only player who can see the entire field, controlling the outcome of the game with the brain and calling the right pitches is entirely possible while the other eight defenders only have to react to the sight and sound of the ball to affect the outcome of the game.

For both an infielder and an outfielder, playing with grace is the most important thing in defense. Being able to move loose and free in space with excellent body control, being light and efficient with their footwork, quick first step and reaction time when reading and predicting ball trajectory, getting low to the ground for infielders and running clean routes for outfielders, and their respective arm and speed grades are the nuances to look out for.