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How each top 30 SF Giants prospect can take their game to the next level

By Wrenzie Regodon |
How can Giants catching prospect Ricardo Genoves take his game to the next level?
How can Giants catching prospect Ricardo Genoves take his game to the next level? / Rob Tringali/GettyImages
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Before hopping to the 2022 season, be sure to purchase the 2022 SF Giants Prospects Primer to catch up on everything SF Giants prospects-related! If you want to read bits and pieces, check out my profile at Around The Foghorn! Support me on Patreon as well!

Gone is 2021 and here comes the 2022 minor league season. The Giants feature a lot of storylines in their farm system and a lot of questions to be answered. Let's cut to the chase and learn about how one key aspect of each prospect in 2022 pre-season Top 30 can take their game to the next level this season.

How each top 30 SF Giants prospect can take their game to the next level

30. Grant McCray

The key thing: Cut down the strikeouts

Drafted in the third round of the 2019 draft, McCray has progressed nicely through the system reaching San Jose towards the end of last season, and has already hit a home run in this year's Spring Training. The most impressive aspect of McCray's game as he progressed through as a professional is his raw strength, where he can hit balls with an exit velocity of mid-110s under the best conditions.

If McCray is turning himself into a legitimate power threat, he needs to trim down the strikeouts to a more respectable rate after posting a 32.7% strikeout rate across two levels last season. McCray can work the count as evidenced by his 3.81 pitches per plate appearance in San Jose last season, but he can be beaten by good breaking balls in two-strike counts at this stage of his pro career. McCray already has solid potential as a defense-first prospect, but if he cuts down the strikeouts, his offensive game will take off.

29. Hunter Bishop

The key thing: Injury-free season

We all know the story of Hunter Bishop. The guy just can't seem to get a break. Injury here, injury there, injury everywhere. The reality is that injuries are impossible to predict. Spending huge boatloads of cash to predict injuries is a fool's errand. And we all know that injuries really cost Bishop A LOT of playing time.

A fully-healthy Bishop in 2022 is just an easy call on picking a key thing that is pivotal to a prospect's successful campaign. One of the early rumblings that I heard from the Complex is that Bishop still has plenty of rust to remove and he needs to remove it and be ready come Opening Day.

28. Manuel Mercedes

The key thing: Clean up his delivery

Mercedes has a lot of fans from the Giants prospect community with his potential. The only issue for him is that the gap between where he is currently and what he could potentially be is as vast as the Pacific Ocean. The explosive but raw stuff was in full display in the backfields last season where he struck out 62 hitters in 56.1 innings but also pitched to the tune of an ERA of 5.11.

The biggest key for Mercedes is to clean up his delivery, and that might be his biggest key in the next couple of years. His current arm action is reminiscent of Camilo Doval as a slinging motion with a low 3/4 arm slot. The only difference is that Mercedes' ability to rotate quickly is better than Doval's. If Mercedes can shorten up his arm action or ease up a bit with his trunk rotation, he can start to see his mid-90s fastball and hard, sweeping slider be in the strike zone more often. It might not happen in San Jose this season though, at least not at the start of the season, but he's a very fun project for the Giants' coaching staff as well as Mercedes' coaching staff.

27. Ricardo Genoves

The key thing: Get it together on defense

What seemed like Genoves' strength turned into a massive concern last season as his defense fell well below expectations. He allowed more than triple the number of passed balls in 2021 compared to 2019 with 26 passed balls last season, he's allowed more than a couple of handfuls of wild pitches that should have been corralled if he put in more effort, and he seemed to focus more on his framing rather than blocking.

Big-league catchers become mainstays because of their defense, not because of their patient approach at the plate nor of their ten-homer pop in their bats. And Genoves clearly blew it defensively last season even though he's looked competitive in the batter's box. Whether it's his athleticism degrading rapidly, him still adjusting to the one-legged set-ups, him having effort issues, him trying to preserve his body throughout a long season, or a combination of all of those reasons, Genoves has to wake up and show what he is capable of defensively. His at-bats in Spring Training have not been great, but it does not count anyway. He looked nice defensively so far, but it also does not count. What matters is what kind of effort he puts up in the regular season.

26. Prelander Berroa

The key thing: Improve the changeup

When I first started following Berroa, he was more of a fastball-changeup guy. After watching a full season of him though, he now became a fastball-slider guy with his changeup being placed on the trunk. Improving the changeup will be crucial if ever Berroa is going to make himself a true starting pitching option.

The changeup is the biggest thing but an even bigger thing for Berroa is the ability to hold his consistency towards the second half of the season. The rug was pulled from him in August when his fastball control got away from him but he executed his slider better though. Fatigue might be the biggest factor in Berroa's rough second half of last season. What is key for him is to improve his stamina for the upcoming season.

How each top 30 SF Giants prospect can take their game to the next level

25. Carson Ragsdale

The key thing: Throw more quality strikes

When you look at Ragsdale's numbers last season, there's somewhat of a disconnect. His strike percentage last season is 66% which is above-average to even plus. However, his walk rate is only somewhat average at 9.1% (when I did personal research on stuff and control, I noticed that an increase in strike rate is directly proportional to a decrease in walk rate). Also, he's allowed far too many hits for a guy with his stuff (21.7% hit allowed rate).

Looking at his film tells a vivid story. He can throw his pitch arsenal in the strike zone but he's throwing into the nitro zone (middle-middle) a little bit too often leading to a high hit rate, he can get ahead but he got into full counts a bit too often that resulted to a higher walk rate than usual. It appears that moderation is also applicable to throwing strikes, not just drinking. It's now time for Ragsdale to take the next step: it's not just throwing strikes, it's throwing quality strikes. If he can do that in 2022, his stuff is good enough to project a big-league reliever.

24. Ryan Reckley

The key thing: Show off his skillset

Ryan Reckley is already putting his work in the backfields to begin his pro career. However, we should not expect that he will be up to San Jose sometime this year. He is not exactly tearing up in this year's Spring Training but what we have is clean footage of his swing on both sides.

The Jose Reyes comp is really evident when I watched Reckley. He is a bit open in his stance as a left-handed batter compared to a true square stance as a right-handed batter. Both swings, however, look pretty similar in terms of the way Reckley uses his hands throughout his swing. The only difference is that his bat path is a bit steeper as a righty. Overall, it's a compact stroke on both sides and the way he moves is eerily similar to Reyes. He should fare well in Arizona this season.

23. Ismael Munguia

The key thing: Prove the power is real

One of the most surprising developments of 2021 is Ismael Munguia's power production. He tripled the number of home runs last season with nine and he increased his ISO by 68% while also winning the Northwest League batting title.

What Munguia has to do in 2022 is to continue his improved power production in Double-A. Asking him to do that, however, might be a bit difficult considering that he will play half of his games in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball. However, it must not detract from the fact that power is not Munguia's game. Playing with plenty of hustle, making consistent contact, and bringing the fire in the dugout is. Power is just a ceiling raiser for Munguia.

22. Kervin Castro

The key thing: Pitch according to his strengths

For the record, Kervin Castro had a very good 2021 season. He pitched with a 2.87 ERA in a very tough league that's the PCL, and he did not allow a run in the 13 innings that he's in the big leagues last September. The only issue is that he was shadowed by fellow Latino reliever Camilo Doval's dominance.

For Castro to continue to be very good in 2022, he has to improve his pitch execution. With an extreme north-south approach in his pitching, he has to throw his fastball high in the zone and pair it up with his curveball thrown down in the zone. The issue for Castro last season, however, his heat maps via Baseball Savant show that he is throwing his fastball pretty much middle-middle while his curveball is a little bit all over the place. Having a more consistent heat map from Castro in 2022 should do wonders for his value as a reliable reliever.

21. R.J. Dabovich

The key thing: Full send

There are not a lot of things to say about Dabovich, either. He's close to a finished product and he just needs to continue to pump out the dominance that we have seen from him. It might be a little bit difficult since he is playing in the hitter-friendly confines of the PCL, but he's more of a strikeout pitcher so he should do well as opposed to someone who relies on weak contact, like a Sean Hjelle.

How each top 30 SF Giants prospect can take their game to the next level

20. Patrick Bailey

The key thing: Get in shape

What made me so low on Bailey last season was his conditioning entering the season. I think you all know about that already, and that's what I want to see change for Bailey this season.

What I saw so far this Spring Training is that Bailey's shape is similar to his September 2021 version and not like the May to June 2021 version so that's based. He's also making contact against some respectable pitchers in the scrims so that's based as well. What is not based is the way that he swings. Bailey struggles to rotate his hips upon contact although the entire operation is not as sloppy as last season. He badly needs a redemption arc this season to win back over some of the more serious Giants prospect writers, including me.

19. Diego Rincones

The key thing: Stay the course

Rincones completely pummeled the competition last season, posting a wRC+ of 140 on both High-A and Double-A, but was surprisingly left open in the Rule 5 draft. Thankfully, the draft did not happen and Rincones is still in the organization. It was a vote of no confidence from the decision-makers, however, as Rincones' defense largely played a part in leaving him out of the 40-man roster.

It might seem easy to point out that Rincones should just improve his outfield defense. There, easy. Done. Onto the next. It only sounds easy in theory though as Rincones' lack of range and overall movement in space are very difficult to fix. That squarely slots him in a DH-type role moving forward, and for a team like the Giants who values versatility on defense more than anything, having a guy who cannot play solid-enough defense is a no-go. Rincones should continue to utilize his strength, which is hitting balls very well, in order to change the minds of the front office with regards to his value and role.

18. Eric Silva

The key thing: Hold the velocity

In comparison to other people's Giants prospect rankings, I am probably the highest on Silva, and for a good reason. I've followed his journey ever since he was a high school junior, I've always loved his superb athleticism on the mound, and he is on the smaller side but he packs a lot of velocity, and being on the smaller side means shorter levers and shorter levers mean better control, and his athleticism amplifies that control.

One issue that I have noticed though in his senior season is his fluctuating velocity. He was hitting 97 MPH early last season when he is primarily reaching back for something extra. As the season rolls on though, he was only sitting 90-95 MPH on his heater when his mechanics features more of a consistent tempo. Early reports in Spring Training have him consistently in the 93-95 MPH range and he has a thicker lower half compared to when he was an amateur. If Silva can consistently sit in the 93-95 MPH range this season, he should be a force to be reckoned with this season.

17. Brett Auerbach

The key thing: The red pill or the blue pill

Auerbach has already impressed Giants manager Gabe Kapler in the little time that he spent in Scottsdale with his versatility on defense. I was also impressed with the way he is that versatile on defense last season (six total errors while playing six positions) while also being adaptive on the offensive side of the ball (from a contact hitter in San Jose to the power threat in Eugene).

Probably the biggest question that was brought to my attention is what is the best offensive approach for Auerbach as he goes through the upper Minors. If he tries to become the power hitter that he was in Eugene, it could be a double-edged sword. He could either prove that the power is legit or not if he puts up a similar home run streak which would be super impressive given the extreme pitcher-friendly confines of The Diamond. Personally, I would like to see Auerbach employ more of a contact-heavy approach as he did in San Jose. It looked like his power approach will likely not work when I watched his stroke in Scottsdale and he could torpedo his stock if it does not work. What kind of offensive approach will be the key for Auerbach this season.

16. Randy Rodriguez

The key thing: Get used to traveling

It's kind of tough to be Randy Rodriguez. He broke out in his final year of protection from the Rule 5 draft, then he got protected which is a sign of trust and belief in his arm, then the front office dropped a bit of a bombshell where he could be placed in a rotation role entering this season. It might seem a very fun option but with the way the front office uses their 40-man roster, Rodriguez is more likely to be thrust into a big-league role in 2023 at the very earliest.

That could only mean one thing, and that's traveling. A lot of it. If everything goes well, Rodriguez should start in Eugene but it will not be surprising if he ends up in Richmond at the end of the season and likely begin his 2023 season in Sacramento with the hopes of him reaching the big leagues in the middle of next year. The only couple of things that Rodriguez has to do is to continue what he is doing, which is being dominant and get used to some plane rides.

How each top 30 SF Giants prospect can take their game to the next level

15. Nick Swiney

The key thing: Be more efficient

Let's make this simple: the biggest goal for Swiney this season is to pitch at least to the sixth inning. The issue last season is that he threw 4.11 pitches per batter, which is below average compared to this data by High Heat Stats (the caveat is that the latest tally is in 2018). It is a byproduct of his strikeout-first nature with him setting up a hitter with his flurry of pitches. If Swiney wants to last longer in his starts and turn himself into a legitimate rotation option, he has to be more efficient.

14. Sean Hjelle

The key thing: Trust the defense

Seeing Hjelle ranked in the high-20s compared to my ranking of 14 honestly baffled me. Like look, don't get me wrong, Hjelle had a terrible time in Sacramento last season with a 5.74 ERA. However, he's done that when he's allowed an absurd .345 BABIP, and his pitching style does not suit the environment. He's never going to get high strikeout numbers. He is a pitch-to-contact guy and he's reliant on the defense behind him and Minor League defense is not exactly top-notch, to say the least. His batted ball numbers are still good with a 54.1% groundball rate last season. However, Hjelle should continue to rely on his 92-96 MPH sinker and get groundballs.

The only thing that Hjelle did that I was not truly fond of is when he lowered his arm slot a bit instead of having an even higher arm slot to create that extreme downhill plane. I honestly feel that if Hjelle puts together a string of good pitching in the first half of the season, there's a chance that he can get called up to The Show. When he gets called up, the big league coaching staff should know how to optimize his God-given gifts. Throw sinkers down, get ground balls, and trust in the quality of defenders at the big league level. That and placing him in the pen to get maximum velocity out of him. That potential plan for Hjelle is already better than a lot of prospects ranked ahead of him if he was ranked in the high-20s, which I did not do.

13. Camilo Doval

The key thing: Consistency

Doval should graduate this list very, very soon, so I'll make this one short. The key for Doval this season is consistency. Relievers are fickle persons. Today they are dominant, tomorrow they can't find the strike zone. The relievers who enjoy long careers, however, have flashed consistency. If Doval can replicate his September 2021 performance in 2022, he should be fine. That might be easier said than done but I'm banking on optimism.

12. Adrian Sugastey

The key thing: Show off the pop

Based on what I've seen, it seems that I am one of the first to hop on the Sugastey bandwagon and ranked him the highest compared to other rankings. I was a believer in Sugastey's bat in the very beginning of scouting him because of how clean his bat path is for his age to pair along with the ability to hit baseballs with north of 110 MPH maximum exit velocity. All of that while also playing the toughest position on the field.

While Sugastey showed last season that he can easily put lumber to a round cork and rubber object, he's yet to put that raw power of his to good use. 2022 is the best time to show off his power stroke, and he will do it in an environment where he can definitely pop off. Oh, while also playing solid defense behind the plate with an above-average arm. I'm excited to push him to the top 10 after the season if everything goes well.

11. Ryan Murphy

The key thing: Diversify

We are all Ryan Murphy fans here, am I right? 2021 could have not gone any better for Murphy. However, that is fully in the rearview mirror and it's time to take the next step for Murphy as he makes his meteoric ascent to the Majors.

For that to happen, we have to take a look at what worked for him last season. He's super effective when he was peppering the inside and outside third of the strike zone with his fastball with a little bit of the knuckle-curve early in the count and finishing hitters off with his slider down and in on the lefties. With only two legitimate pitches (in my opinion, the curveball is more of a show pitch rather than a true out pitch), he needs a third out pitch and based on what I heard from him throughout our conversations this offseason, he's improved his changeup A LOT and he can't wait to show it for us to see. An equalizer pitch should just be the thing that he needs to eliminate any doubters thinking that his 2021 is just a fluke.

How each top 30 SF Giants prospect can take their game to the next level

10. Matt Mikulski

The key thing: Handle a starter's workload

Mikulski is not exactly well-known in the Giants community but he is one of the most, if not the most, interviewed of the Giants draftees last season (take this one for example). His openness to talk is one of the most impressive things about him. However, it's Matt Mikulski the pitcher that we are focusing on here.

The most innings that Mikulski has thrown in a college season were only 82 innings in 2019. 2019 Mikulski is much different than the 2022 Mikulski, however. The Mikulski that I've seen in 2022 is the same Mikulski that I've seen in 2021. One thing I noticed that was different from him is the changeup grip being tweaked to a splitter grip. I'm not sure if it's the pitch that he's used since last year but I've noticed that he uses his index finger and a slightly tucked-in ring finger when throwing a tumbling pitch and that is an indication of a splitter. It's highly effective though so it's definitely an out pitch for him. I expect Mikulski to pitch in a rotation role, hit the 100 inning mark this season, and prove that he is a legitimate rotation option.

9. Casey Schmitt

The key thing: Put balls over the fence

People who follow my work know how high I am on Schmitt. It is not because Schmitt has a ridiculous ceiling, but because of how safe Schmitt's profile is compared to the prospects that are similar in terms of talent. An at least above-average defender at third base, Schmitt only needs to not be a liability on offense to stick in the big leagues in the long-term ala Andrelton Simmons. Schmitt might never be a special hitter but if he can hit at least post an at least .775 OPS and 15 home runs, he should play every day.

How to get there will be the issue. Schmitt's numbers last season were mired down by a truly awful May and Schmitt's numbers were much better from June onwards. For a guy who has a super steep swing path that resulted in a 50.3% flyball rate last season, Schmitt is not your conventional all-or-nothing hitter with just a 15.% strikeout rate, proof of his bat-to-ball ability. If Schmitt plays without issues, hitting 15 home runs in Eugene and/or Richmond is very feasible. There are reports from Arizona of him still mentally coping after getting hit in the wrist that ended his 2021 campaign, so there's something to be worried about for a Schmitt fan. I hope that he can overcome it during the season and be who he could be: a chad.

8. Aeverson Arteaga

The key thing: Slow the game down

This might be Arteaga's key thing to improve on over the next couple of years. There have been plenty of instances on both sides of the ball where he plays a bit too fast based on what I've seen from him in San Jose last season.

On defense, Arteaga has shown that he can be in a position to make the play but failed to execute due to him rushing his actions. On offense, he is often very aggressive early in the counts and on pitches that he should have laid off. Once the game slows down, his athleticism will show up on defense where he can flash his terrific range and arm and his pop will show on the offensive side of the ball.

7. Will Bednar

The key thing: A legitimate third out pitch

As a first-rounder, Bednar comes with a lot of hype and expectations. What he flashed in San Jose last season was a little bit lackluster and early reports about him in Spring Training are not otherworldly either. However, Bednar still needs a good third pitch in order to be a legitimate starting pitching option.

Bednar shows up in Spring Training with a refined changeup with a late tumble like a splitter and some tail. It is a changeup because based on the video that I've seen, he's using his ring finger as intended. Based on the quality of the pitch alone, it is an above-average pitch when thrown down in the zone, and the pitch should pair well with his four-seam in terms of vertical movement difference due to the pitch's tumbling nature rather than a two-seam nature. Bednar has a good strike-throwing ability and a nasty sweeper to compliment his low-90s heater, so adding a changeup is vital this season.

6. Jairo Pomares

The key thing: Cut down on the aggression

I know that a lot of Giants fans love Jairo Pomares after his stellar 2021 season, myself included. I have posted a lot of content about Pomares not because I bait for clicks but because I believe in him too. When I got to my deliberation, however, things kind of happened and because of my "worst case" thinking, Pomares ended up at number six because of the lack of value that he provides when his hit tool ever regresses.

There is an argument to be made that he was not especially challenged in Low-A when he clapped the league while averaging a low 3.55 pitches per plate appearance. He actually did a touch better on the pitches per plate appearance stat upon his promotion to High-A but that coincided with a general dip in performance. I personally see the Giants being hard believers of the three true outcomes (home runs, walks, strikeouts) and Pomares lacking in the walks category might not sit very well with the coaching staff even though his bat slaps that could eventually put him in the trading block in the coming months. Learning how to draw walks while maintaining the power and contact numbers should make him a true top-100 talent.

How each top 30 SF Giants prospect can take their game to the next level

5. Heliot Ramos

The key thing: Put up the stats

There is a growing vibe that 2022 is a crucial year for Heliot Ramos. It's a prove-it year for him as he might be getting looked at with an open spot for a right-handed bat need in the big league lineup. Ever since his San Jose stint in 2019, Ramos looked kind of mid rather than absolute chad. He's never had a season in the high-Minors where he posted an OPS above .775.

In order to cement himself as still a core part of the future as well as a potential call-up this season, Ramos has to produce in Sacramento. He has to put up the numbers at home considering that Sacramento is a neutral park compared to the absolute jet streams of the other parks in the PCL. Because he was in the organization since 2017, Giants fans are already pretty tired of waiting for him it seems like. However, Ramos looks like he is ready to all-out attack the season with his much-improved physique.

4. Joey Bart

The key thing: Stay comfortable and confident

Look, Joey Bart's going to leave prospecthood very soon. However, if there is one key thing that he should do this season, it's to stay comfortable. Get comfortable with catching the big league pitching staff. There's a lot of nastiness in that pitching staff that Bart needs to get acclimated to quickly. Also, with the way that the front office operates with one-year "prove it" deals being common, he has to get used to the revolving door of pitchers.

It's easy to mention that cutting down the strikeouts will be the key to Bart's success, but I feel the strikeouts are a part of his game that is almost impossible to delete. Making sure that he is up to the task with his duties as a catcher is the biggest thing for him this season more than anything.

3. Luis Matos

The key thing: Take the free base

Give kudos to the Giants coaching staff for not changing Luis Matos' approach in 2021 because it really, really works when it is on. The issue though is when it was not, and we got a glimpse of that last season. In a stretch from the middle of August until just before the end of the regular season, Matos hit a putrid .178 with a .513 OPS. There was not really a change in the approach as shown by his 13% strikeout rate during the slump, but his walk rate is still at 5% and his BABIP is at .195.

Matos could potentially fall into the Christian Arroyo dilemma where he makes so much contact that he is dependent on the BABIP gods and kind of depend on his ability to put the bat to the ball that he provides very minimal value when he's in a slump. If Matos ever decides to take his walks instead of making contact out of the zone that will most likely lead to outs, that will boost his overall value and he's shown his impressive eye and plate coverage last season.

2. Marco Luciano

The key thing: Make contact on fastballs in the zone

Putting the ability to play shortstop as a key thing for Luciano is a bit of a jebait unless I see something that is completely out of this world from him defensively, it is highly unlikely to happen this season or ever will. For me, it's something that I want to see to believe. Instead, let's take a look at his bat which after the 2021 season raised questions on how good it can be as well.

As I said before, Luciano struggled to catch up to velocity when he is behind in the count last season, and Geoff Pontes of Baseball America (I hope that's his real name this time) mentioned in Roger Munter's podcast that Luciano posted a below-average contact rate on fastballs inside the zone. I do not have the shiny data that he has but just from watching Luciano over the course of the season, it was evident that he is making a concerted effort to make contact on breaking balls, leaving him open to get blown by velocity. If Luciano can improve on it this season, his journey to superstardom is right back on track and that is another reason to not have his defense as the biggest key for him. If everything clicks offensively, it will not matter where will play on the field.

1. Kyle Harrison

The key thing: Just throw a bit more strikes

Throwing strikes is the simplest and most difficult thing to do for any pitcher. Simple in concept but difficult to execute. However, throwing strikes is a key factor in Harrison's success last season. In his first 15 starts, Harrison threw 61% of his pitches for strikes which corresponded to an ERA of 4.12. In his final eight starts, he threw 63% of his pitches for strikes which is just around average. The result, however, is an ERA of 1.53.

You might think that a two percent increase in strike-throwing might not amount to a lot but that is 35 pitches called balls that would have been strikes (Harrison threw 1760 pitches last season, two percent of 1760 is 35) and with the kind of stuff that Harrison has, those 35 balls turned to strikes would mean a lot. It would mean more strikeouts, fewer walks, and more outs. With him turning out in the best shape of his life at training camp, the chances are he will carry over his dominant end of the 2021 season to the upcoming season.

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