Anthony DeSclafani makes his third start of the season today as the Giants continue their three-game series with the Detroit Tigers.
In his first two starts, DeSclafani limited both the White Sox and Royals to three hits a piece while striking out 11 and not issuing a single walk in 12.1 innings. He's allowed one measly run and gets a wonderful matchup against perhaps the MLB's worst lineup today.
Detroit has yet to announce a starter but it appears likely Michael Lorenzen will get the nod in his return from the Injured List. Nonetheless, I see value on San Francisco and don't believe the Tigers can generate enough offense to compete.
Let's check out the latest odds before I explain why I'm backing the Giants.
Giants vs. Tigers odds, run line, and total
Giants vs. Tigers prediction and pick
DeSclafani should have no problem mowing down this pathetic Detroit lineup. The Tigers are dead-last in baseball in OPS (.575) and had lost six of seven entering this series. San Francisco, on the other hand, ranks fifth in OPS (.780) and will have an advantage over whichever pitcher Detroit starts.
Through two starts, DeSclafani is in the 83rd percentile in chase rate and 92nd in walk rate, implying his pinpoint command is both generating strikeouts and avoiding costly walks. That's a sterling combination and he's got one of MLB's best FIPs (Fielding Independent Pitching) at 1.61 as a result.
Dating back to last season, the Giants are 7-2 in DeSclafani's last dozen starts and I see that trend continuing today. What's more, six of those wins came on the run line as well, giving San Francisco even more value against a woeful offense.
Don't overthink this one. Enjoy the light matchup and take the Giants to win convincingly.
Pick: Giants -1.5
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.