Things got out of hand yesterday in LA when the San Francisco Giants hung 15 runs on the Dodgers. Following that 15-0 loss LA will send Tony Gonsolin to the mound to try to stop the bleeding. The Dodgers are 39-32 after losing the first two of this three-game series with their rivals. San Francisco comes in at 38-32 going for the sweep and the second spot in the division.
Gonsolin is 4-1 with a 1.93 ERA in nine starts for the Dodgers this season. The Giants will counter with Logan Webb who in 14 starts is 5-6 with a 3.15 ERA. Here are the odds for this NL West matchup.
Giants vs. Dodgers odds, run line and total
Giants vs. Dodgers prediction and pick
While the numbers make it seem like Gonsolin is the stronger starting pitcher in this one, that's just not the case. Gonsolin does not go deep into starts and that’s been the story of his entire career. His longest outing this season has been six innings and that prevents him from getting exposed, but does expose his team’s bullpen.
Gonsolin has a FIP of 4.25 which is absurdly high compared to a sub-two ERA. He is 34th percentile in walk rate and 23rd in strikeout rate with an 18th percentile whiff rate. He is going to regress at some point this season and with how San Francisco is hitting right now it might be today.
If Gonsolin doesn’t get hit hard, he’ll still leave early and that means the Giants get a shot at the LA bullpen. This season the Dodgers are 29th with a bullpen ERA of 5.11. Logan Webb on the other hand regularly goes 7+ and while his numbers are slightly worse with an ERA right above three, he is more valuable and more reliable. The Giants are third in the MLB in OPS this month while the Dodgers are 15th. The Giants as an underdog are my favorite bet of the entire day.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change