Examining SF Giants Randy Rodriguez's Viability As A Starter

Randy Rodriguez's 2021 Season

Rodriguez headed into the 2021 season without much of a fanfare. I did not have a good beat of his pitch repertoire before but I did see his mechanics when he was pitching in Rookie ball in 2018. I wrote this report on him in my 2021 Prospects Primer:

"While not much is known about Randy’s stuff, he has a good, strong
physique and deception in his delivery due to him reaching back hard in his throwing arm. Would be interested to see his progress in the next couple of years."

To be fair, his stats on the back fields were not eye-popping to the tune of 4.28 and 5.40 ERA in the DSL and AZL respectively, but he looked like have some bat-missing ability with 34 strikeouts in 27.1 innings in the DSL and 29 strikeouts in 25 innings in the AZL. Rodriguez pitched well from May to July where he posted a 3.21 ERA in his first three months with 51 strikeouts in 33.2 innings. However, he turned it on in August and September with a 28.1 inning scoreless streak with 50 strikeouts to three walks compared to 20 walks that he allowed in the first three months. To put Rodriguez's August and September to an even deeper context, he held hitters to a .143 batting average, struck out 48% of the batters that he faced, induced whiffs at an absurd 42% rate, and threw 71% of his pitches for strikes. He also pitched 1.1 scoreless innings in relief in the post-season as the San Jose squad won the Low-A West title.

All in all, Rodriguez struck out 101 batters in 62 innings, pitched with a 1.74 ERA, 9% walk rate, 67% strike thrown rate, 39% strikeout rate, and a 39% whiff rate. What is interesting is that Rodriguez's 62 innings and 1010 pitches this season were a little less than 2/3 of the number of innings and pitches of what top prospect Kyle Harrison threw this season. People might take that as the lines between starting and relieving are getting vaguer and vaguer. A more logical reason is that the Giants coaches want to give as many competitive reps to every pitcher that they missed out as possible due to the pandemic and pitchers are mostly working in more than one inning stints followed with a couple of days of rest. Rodriguez only pitched with less than three days of rest once this season in an effort to avoid overuse.

Rodriguez was also stingy in any at-bat but especially in the late-innings where he usually ends up pitching for most of the season. He is also nasty with runners in scoring position with a 0.85 ERA, a.132 opposing batting average, and 38 strikeouts in 22.1 innings of work. Simply put, Rodriguez was exceptional for San Jose this year as their Andrew Miller-type fireman out of the bullpen.

Why Did Randy Rodriguez Got Protected?

The core of the Rule 5 draft is to try to get unprotected players from another roster with the hopes of them making an impact on the big league roster for next season. Typically, most teams lean on selecting relievers who will be given a shot in a bullpen with the hopes of them sticking around like what the Red Sox got with Garrett Whitlock in last year's Rule 5. There are times where teams will pick a position player in Rule 5 but it is not as common as pitchers as there is a higher shot of success than hitters. Also, signing a position player with big league experience in free agency as opposed to drafting a position player who never had any big league experience at all is an easier decision to make for front offices.

When handing out tool grades, a trend that you will typically notice is that scouts and evaluators will hand out present grades that are above-average or plus to a certain pitch type to a pitcher in the low-Minors but it is highly uncommon to see even average hit tool grades to Minor League hitting prospects unless they are prodigal hitters like Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. or Wander Franco. Even though there is a saying that hitters hit, the truth is you never know for most hitters if they really will hit unless they face legitimate big-league pitchers. For pitchers, however, it's much easier to get a good beat of them mainly because of technology. Do you like a pitcher in the low-Minors who has a great fastball and breaking ball characteristics that also throws enough strikes to save their life? Pop them in Rule 5.

So why did Rodriguez get protected? For starters, Rodriguez has plus stuff. Standing at an even six foot and a bit heavier than the 166 pounds declared weight, Rodriguez can pump fastballs up to 98 MPH with plenty of late life. Rodriguez has plus athleticism on the mound with pronounced drop-and-drive elements in his delivery that has a lot of violence but help him generate a lightning-quick arm speed. His shorter height, his drop-and-drive delivery, and his low 3/4 release point give his fastball a flat approach plane, and his plus stride length adds a tick more perceived velocity. To complement his plus heater is his slider which is one of the, if not the best, breaking balls in the farm system. It has a hard and tight two-plane break that he can execute in any quadrant of the zone. Rodriguez has the confidence to throw any of those two pitches in any count against any hitter regardless of handedness, and he can fill the zone and flash execution with both.

Rodriguez got chosen to be protected because of several factors. First is the pitchers vs. hitters conundrum that are a staple in the Rule 5 draft. Even though the Giants missed a chance in terms of protecting a hitter like Rincones, it looks like the Giants do have a plan of filling out the outfield with big-league talent in free agency once business re-opens. It does open up a massive opportunity for teams to take a shot at him who is a legitimate Top 30 talent but it is highly likely that an American League team will try to snatch him up because Rincones is a bit of a liability in the outfield with his lack of range and I view him primarily as a DH. Bypassing David Villar is also intriguing but unlike Rincones, Villar can actually provide defense in a big-league roster but there is a high possibility that the strikeout issues that plagued him throughout his Minors career could pop up once again.

That brings us to Seth Corry and Prelander Berroa. I think that bypassing Corry is an easy call as his command regressed to well below-average this season. Even though the Giants gave him a bit of a breather in the Arizona backfields to regroup and tinker the issues spotted with his mechanics that helped him finish strong with a positive note, he was out of whack once again in the Fall League. It has been proven that even though Corry's athleticism is an asset, his mechanics are probably too high-maintenance to ever imagine him throwing for consistent strikes in the future, and once picked, there is a high chance that he will be returned back to the Giants in the early-season as a waste of a Rule 5 pick because he is definitely not ready to contribute in the big leagues.

The selection over Berroa is more intriguing as there was a point in the season where Berroa looked like the best pitcher in the system in the month of July. However, when comparing their stuff, even though Rodriguez is a tick below Berroa in terms of fastball velocity (Berroa can reach up to 99 MPH while Rodriguez can reach up to 98 MPH), Rodriguez currently has the better breaking ball out of the two (Rodriguez has a plus slider while Berroa only has a slider that flashes average). Rodriguez also has a better feel for his utilizing his slider (he can work it up and down the zone while Berroa mostly works it up in the zone) while also having a similar fastball feel. Simply put, Rodriguez is more ready to step in a big-league role right now compared to both Berroa and Corry.

Can Randy Rodriguez Work In A Starter Role?

It came as a surprise when Zaidi made the remark that Rodriguez could be stretched out in a rotation role next season. In the 58 pitching appearances that he had done throughout his whole career, he only started twice in 2018 in the DSL. If he ever starts next season, it will be the first time in more than three years that has happened.

In order for Rodriguez to be viable in a rotation role, or any pitcher for that matter, he has to have a third pitch. Not just a show-me pitch, but a pitch that can either induce whiffs or weak contact. In Rodriguez's case, it is a changeup. His changeup is a two-seam circle changeup that he primarily throws against lefties early in the count to give hitters a different look from the usual fastball-slider combination. He did not throw the pitch a lot early in the season but his confidence kept growing and growing as the season progressed and he even features it in two-strike counts. The pitch does not have a big velocity difference compared to his fastball but it does flash late two-seam movement.

If you can get Robert Hassell III to swing in front like what he did in the video, you know it's a viable third pitch. With Rodriguez working out in two or three-inning stints and only facing the lineup once, going full send is not an issue. However, if Rodriguez is to be stretched out, the 94-98 MPH range that he lived with in the bullpen would tick down to likely 92-96 MPH. He could still sprinkle a couple of 98 MPH heaters early in his outings, but he would likely sit in the low-to-mid 90s.

Rodriguez's stuff should not be an issue. There is a reason why his strikeout rate never dipped below 25% after all. He also has had a solid record of strike-throwing this season. His walk rate was not pretty in the AZL a couple of years ago but he's shown this season that he can spot his pitches whenever needed. The only issue that could hinder Rodriguez's stint in the rotation is the violence in his arm action. Rodriguez is a great athlete but the way he loads his rotator cuff is extreme. That gives him the relief-ish vibes and even though I think that Rodriguez will pitch in relief in the big leagues eventually, I would not discount the possibility that he will be a good Minor League starter because of his athleticism and strike-throwing.