All of a sudden, the San Francisco Giants are ripping through the NL West and with a win today could end this three game series with the first-place Arizona Diamondbacks just a half game back. Heading into the series finale the Giants are 44-33 after winning the first two and the Diamondbacks are 46-32.
For the finale as the Giants go for the sweep, they’ll hand the ball to Anthony DeSclafani. DeSclafani is 4-6 with a 4.38 ERA and will match up with Ryne Nelson. Nelson comes in at 3-4 with a 5.31 ERA.
Let’s get into the odds for this NL West matchup.
Diamondbacks vs. Giants odds, run line and total
Diamondbacks vs. Giants prediction and pick
The Diamondbacks desperately need to take this one, but it could be tough against DeSclafani. He has struggled in his last two starts, but his FIP is 3.84 which is a good sign for him going forward. One of the reasons for a FIP that is much lower than his ERA is a walk rate that puts him in the top 10% of all MLB pitchers. The Diamondbacks are not a team that relies on walks, they are 16th in baseball this year, but they are second in walks in the last five days and that will go away in this one.
Ryne Nelson also has a FIP that is much lower than his ERA, but Nelson’s is at 4.63 which is still not good. His expected ERA is 5.27 and his strikeout rate, whiff rate, xSLG, xBA, and barrel percentage are all in the bottom 20% of all pitchers in baseball.
The first two games of this series have been high scoring despite neither offense being particularly hot lately. I think with Nelson on the mound in this one, the Giants should be able to score enough to pull off the sweep. That is if DeSclafani pitches more to his FIP than his ERA and that could be a big if. The Giants have won 12 of their last 13 games, so I just have to take them as a slight home favorite.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change