Despite improved roster, SF Giants likely to miss the playoffs again

The SF Giants dropped their second straight series after losing the finale against the Milwaukee Brewers by a score of 6-0 on Thursday. Fangraphs estimates that the Giants' playoff odds sit at 1.2 percent, but even that seems high.

Despite improved roster, SF Giants likely to miss the playoffs again

The Giants sit comfortably outside of the playoff picture as they remain 6.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves for the third Wild Card spot. The Braves are on pace to win 88 games, so the Giants would have to win 21 of their final 27 games to tie Atlanta.

However, the Braves hold the tiebreaker as they went 4-3 against the Giants in 2024, so San Francisco would need to win 22 games of the final 27 games to sneak back into the playoff picture. Plus, it bears mentioning that three teams sit between the Braves and Giants in the Wild Card race. I have seen a lot of weird things in baseball, but the Giants coming back from this type of deficit would require a historic run.

This iteration of Giants baseball has played for five months and they just do not look like a team that can pull that off. It has been a frustrating season. They have an improved roster compared to 2022 and 2023.

Matt Chapman looks like he will receive some down-ballot MVP votes at the end of the year after a very strong campaign. Blake Snell looked more like the two-time Cy Young winner in the second half of this season. The Giants saw breakout seasons from both Heliot Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald. Logan Webb continues to establish himself as one of the best pitchers in baseball.

Unfortunately, it was just not enough. The rest of the roster was lacking. The lineup was not a weakness. In fact, it likely functioned exactly as the front office hoped. The lineup typically had length but it was short on impact talent. Perhaps, the one high-impact bat they had was the one they traded away at the deadline.

The bullpen struggled for much of the year and those struggles were compounded by Camilo Doval's below-average season in 2024. The defense began the year strong, but due to injuries and offensive slumps, they were not nearly as sharp later on, especially in the outfield.

Everything comes down to starting pitching. Teams will go only as far as their starting pitching takes them. On paper, the Giants had a strong front end with Webb and Snell, but Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb spent considerable time on the injured list. Plus, the organization is going through the growing pains of having two young arms in Hayden Birdsong and Kyle Harrison in the rotation.

That should pay off down the road but it makes them less competitive today. For the past couple of seasons, it felt like the Giants were short one quality starter. This year, it felt like they needed two more starters to field a competitive team.

At the end of the day, there is nothing wrong with losing to the Brewers. Milwaukee is a good team. However, losing to the Seattle Mariners while Seattle was struggling is a rough look.

For the Giants, this will mark the seventh season in the past eight years that they have missed the playoffs. That is simply unacceptable and this could be another offseason of changes. The organization was revered in the early 2010's following their championship run but it has been a long time since then.

The organization is viewed in a much different light today. That is a tough image to shake off as they try and create a good impression in free agency. Unfortunately, they have missed time and again with some of their top targets. It is becoming a vicious cycle of losing, aiming high, and settling for less. That trend has continued in 2024.