5 SF Giants players that have been extremely unlucky in 2023

1 of 3

The San Francisco Giants are having to deal with the harsh reality that making the playoffs this season is going to be tough hill to climb. After being in the thick of the race for most of the season, the Giants find themselves 2.5 games out of a wild card spot with three teams between them and a chance to prove themselves in the postseason.

Ultimately, there is a lot of blame to go around here. The front office failed to add an impact bat this past offseason (although it wasn't for lack of trying) and didn't improve the roster at the trade deadline. Some key players have gotten hurt and/or have seen their production drop off as well. It also hasn't helped that San Francisco has also had a few players that have been pretty unlucky so far this season.

Here are 5 SF Giants players that have been extremely unlucky in 2023

Luck in baseball isn't the easiest concept to quantify or parse, but there are several metrics that make a valiant attempt at explaining it. The focus here are Giants players that have significantly underperformed their expectated stats or xStats if you will.

For hitters, that means looking at their xBA, BABIP, and xWOBA. For pitchers, FIP, xFIP and and xERA are going to be the metrics of choice. If you are unfamiliar with those metrics, Fangraphs put together a great glossary of baseball metrics terms with detailed explanations you should definitely take a look at. Along the way, there will be mention of guys that have been more broadly unlucky with issues like injuries.

Let's take a look at 5 Giants players that have not had the best luck in 2023.

Patrick Bailey

On the whole, no one should be complaining or worried about Patrick Bailey. He has been worth 3.0 fWAR this season thanks to outstanding defense behind the plate. Given that the bar for catcher offense is quite low, his .302 wOBA for the season is very reasonable especially for a guy that has as much defensive value as he does. However, a closer look at his numbers at the plate suggests that he could be poised to break out offensively.

While Bailey is hitting just .251 this season, his expected batting average (xBA) is actually .259. His aforementioned .302 wOBA isn't great in a vacuum, but his batted ball profile means that his xWOBA is .327 which is significantly better. Some of his underperformance is self-inflicted as he doesn't walk enough and strikes out too much, but the quality of contact is good enough that it wouldn't take much improvement in those areas to see a dramatic increase in his actual production at the plate.

Sean Manaea

Sean Manaea hasn't been the pitcher the Giants wanted when they gave him a two year, $25 million deal. In fact, his numbers have been very similar to what he posted with San Diego in 2022 where he was decidedly not great, but he has done it mostly out of the bullpen for the Giants. In 34 appearances this season, Manaea has put up a 4.80 ERA in 99.1 innings. Again, not great.

However, Manaea numbers should be appreciably better than they are thanks to healthy jump in his strikeout rate this season. With a FIP of 4.02, xFIP of 4.03, and an xERA of 4.47, we would expect Manaea's ERA to be at least a half run better than where it sits today. Some bad luck is partially to blame, but Manaea's walk rate jumping to 3.81 BB/9 this season hasn't helped. As a general rule, giving the opposing team free baserunners is bad.

Joc Pederson

Joc was fantastic last season and is tremendous for the Giants clubhouse, but the 2023 season hasn't gone according to plan. With just 13 home runs and a .337 wOBA this season, Pederson just hasn't been able to be the consistent offensive threat that San Francisco hoped he would be when they gave Joc the qualifying offer after the 2022 season.

When you look at the underlying data, though, things look much better for Pederson. He is still hitting the ball extremely hard and his xWOBA (.373) and xBA (.264) are much higher than what he has actually put on the back of his baseball card this season. It is hard to understand why his numbers have dropped this season except for the fact that he is pulling the ball a lot more and that may be playing into defensive positioning more.

Scott Alexander

Overall, the Giants' bullpen has performed pretty much as well as we would expect across the board. However, one outlier is Scott Alexander who has the unfortunate combination of bad luck and the inability to miss bats.

While Alexander has put up a 4.47 ERA in 53 appearances this season, the metrics seem to indicate that he has had some bad fortune. His xERA (3.65), FIP (3.35), and xFIP (3.86) are all much better than his 2023 results and opposing batters still have a high-ish .316 BABIP against him despite the fact that he has been elite at keeping the ball on the ground and getting soft contact. Unfortunately, the lack of strikeouts hurts him here as any bad run of luck on balls in play is going to be made worse by the sheer number of balls put in play against him.

Brandon Crawford

Finally, we come to long time Giant, Brandon Crawford whose struggles this season have been well documented. Issues with injuries to his knee, calf, and forearm have given Crawford fits this season and it certainly feels like the end of his career is coming sooner rather than later. Unfortunately for Crawford, he has also had some pretty brutal luck at the plate as well.

Through 309 plate appearances this season, Crawford is hitting .195 with a .260 wOBA. Both of those numbers are bad and no one should argue otherwise. However, his expected stats are much better than that as his xWOBA is .292 and his xBA is much higher (but still not good) at .221. Father Time does seem to have caught up with Crawford this season, but he has still been better than what his bottom line numbers have shown.

More SF Giants News from Around the Foghorn

manual

Home / SF Giants News