Why the SF Giants should choose Yoshinobu Yamamoto over Blake Snell

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The SF Giants have been connected to both NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell in some way or another this offseason. If they had to choose one, the better bet would be Yamamoto.

4 reasons why the SF Giants should choose Yoshinobu Yamamoto over Blake Snell

Yamamoto and Snell are the two top pitching options remaining on the market. You could make the case that Jordan Montgomery could be in the conversation, but while he has been solid throughout his career, he does not have the same type of track record as the other two.

This is more of a thought experiment than anything else. There is no current rumors suggesting that the Giants are choosing between either Yamamoto or Snell. They have said that they want to sign a frontline starter and those are the two pitchers on the open market who fit that description.

At the end of the day, they would both be paid handsomely. MLB Trade Rumors predicts that both pitchers should land a deal in excess of $200 million. The financial commitment is significant, but if you are deciding between either pitcher, the difference in guaranteed money should not be too substantial. It is going to be a sizable investment whether you go with Yamamoto or Snell.

1. Age

If all other things are equal, age would be a huge factor in favor of Yamamoto. The right-handed pitcher will enter his age-25 season in 2024, whereas it would be Snell's age-31 season. It is so tough for a team to get younger in free agency, but adding Yamamoto would make him one of the younger pitchers in the Giants' rotation. Even Logan Webb (27), Tristan Beck (27), and Keaton Winn (25) are older than the NPB star.

This means that Yamamoto likely has more peak years remaining than Snell. It also means that he could secure a longer-term deal than the two-time Cy Younger award winner. Though, Yamamoto will likely want an opt-out clause included in his contract so he can re-enter free agency for a second payday if his performance merits it.

2. No qualifying offer

Snell rejected a qualifying offer from the San Diego Padres earlier this winter. If the Giants did sign him, they would lose their second-round pick and $500,000 in international bonus pool money. That is a tough pill to digest for a team whose farm system has not consistently fed the major league roster in years.

That being said, it is hard to know how much of a factor that the qualifying offer is for a player signing a deal of five years or more. If it is a shorter-term deal, that might be more important because the player's value is spread over fewer years. However, in a long-term deal, it just might be less of a factor.

In fairness, the team that eventually signs Yamamoto would owe the Orix Buffaloes a substantial posting fee. That amount will be determined by his future contract. However, the posting fee does not count against the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT).

4 reasons why the SF Giants should choose Yoshinobu Yamamoto over Blake Snell

3. Command

A hallmark of Giants pitchers in recent years has been command. The Giants like pitchers who fill up the strike zone and record swinging strikes. That philosophy likely will not change going from Brian Bannister and Andrew Bailey to Bryan Price.

The Giants' pitching staff led baseball with a 2.53 BB/9 rate in 2023. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a five-pitch mix and has above-average command of all five of his pitches. The 25-year-old pitcher has tallied a 2.1 BB/9 rate across seven NPB seasons.

On the other hand, Blake Snell can be wild at times. Nevertheless, he is more of the effectively wild variety given that his four-seam fastball, curveball, and slider are extremely tough on opposing hitters. The veteran pitcher recorded a 5.0 BB/9 rate in 2023, but that had little impact on his performance as he led the National League with a 2.25 ERA.

That might be okay today, but I do wonder how a pitcher with subpar command performs once his stuff regresses. There are just not many instances of that. Normally, pitchers who remain effective into their 30's do so in part to above-average command. In this regard, Yamamoto feels like a better stylistic fit for the Giants' pitching philosophy.

4. Durability and ability to pitch deep into games

This has been a knock on Snell for much of his career. Despite winning his second Cy Young award in 2023, the lefty pitcher accumulated 180 total innings and averaged 5.2 innings per start. Opposing hitters typically get better each time they face the same pitcher in a game and Snell is no different.

Managers have made an effort to protect him from that third turn through the lineup for much of his career. This has limited his overall workload as he has never pitched more than 180.2 innings in a year and has eclipsed 150 innings just twice across seven full seasons. Is that type of player worth a $200 million investment? Does that characteristic get worse with age?

On the other hand, Yamamoto has made at least 25 starts in two of the last three seasons, which is about a full workload in the NPB. Plus, he likes to pitch deep into games and welcomes that challenge as he averaged nearly 7.1 innings per start in 2023. This is the type of length you want from a pitcher during the regular season and what you expect from an ace during the biggest games.

Both Yamamoto and Snell are aces in their own respects. Snell has the accolades of two Cy Young awards to support his case, whereas Yamamoto has won three straight MVP awards in the NPB. There is no wrong answer here, but Yamamoto seems like a better fit for the Giants.

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