4 biggest roadblocks to the SF Giants making it back to the postseason
It will not be an easy road for the Giants to get back to the playoffs this season.
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Going into their game on 8/12 against Texas, the San Francisco Giants are currently a playoff team as they are currently second in the NL Wild Card standings. While being 12 games over .500 is certainly an accomplishment and the Giants have put themselves in a strong position to make it to the postseason, the road ahead for the Giants will not be easy.
Baseball's long season has claimed many teams over the years as players get hurt or just run out of gas and leads in the standings just slip away. However, the Giants have a unique set of obstacles ahead of them that could completely derail their season if they can't weather the storm.
Here are the 4 biggest roadblocks to the SF Giants making it into the playoffs
Not every roadblock mentioned here should be equally weighted and there are plenty of other ways for the rest of the 2023 season to go right and/or wrong. At the end of the day, San Francisco currently has a 64.5% chance of making the playoffs according to Fangraphs, so the odds are clearly in their favor. There is a still a lot of baseball to be played, though, and just because the odds are in their favor doesn't mean things can't and won't go south.
Let's take a look at the biggest obstacles the Giants have the rest of the 2023 on their quest to make the playoffs.
The Giants' schedule for the rest of August is absolutely brutal
The Giants have played pretty well against the better teams in the league so far this season. In 2023, San Francisco's record against teams who currently have a record better than .500 sits at 28-23 which is the best mark in the NL West and trails just the Braves by winning percentage in the National League. However, that is really going to be put to the test during the rest of August.
After the Giants get done with this three game set against the Rangers who are among the best teams in baseball this season, they have to take on (in order) the Rays, Braves, Phillies, Braves again, and finally the Reds. That is a lot of teams either in playoff contention or among the best teams in the league. If the Giants can emerge from this stretch coming out relatively unscathed, they will be battle-tested and in a great spot. If not, their entire season could be torpedoed.
San Francisco needs the old Thairo Estrada back and fast
When Thairo Estrada went on the injured list, it was a huge blow for the Giants' offense as he was in the middle of a career year. In addition to being an excellent defender, Estrada slashed .272/.327/.434 with nine homers in the first half of 2023. While those aren't otherworldly numbers, it was strong production for a Giants' offense that really needed it.
The good news is that Estrada is back. The less good news is that he only has just four hits since returning from the IL. The sample of games since he came back is very small, so no one should be too alarmed. However, the Giants only have around a month and a half of baseball left and to hold on to their playoff spot, they are going to need their first half offensive MVP to round back into form or at least find someone else in the lineup to pick up the slack.
The competition in the National League for playoff spots is going to be very tight
Going into the trade deadline, there were three teams in real contention for the National League West crown: the Dodgers, Giants, and Diamondbacks with the Padres lurking in the background hoping to go on a run. The Diamondbacks have fell off a cliff in the weeks since and the Padres have continued to underperform. However, the Dodgers have pushed their lead in the division to 7.5 games thanks to a recent hot streak and now the Giants' chances of a division title look slim.
That brings us to the wild card race and while the Giants currently sport a 1.5 cushion for one of those spots, the competition there remains fierce. The Phillies, Giants, and Cubs are currently in, but the Reds and Marlins are only a half game out and the Diamondbacks and Padres are a few games behind them. With all of the competition for playoff spots, it would not take much of a slip up for San Francisco to go from playoff bound to being on the outside looking in.
Will the Giants' starting rotation be good (and healthy) enough?
One way for things for any contender to go sideways in a season is if the rotation runs out of steam. At 6.3 fWAR in 2023, the Giants' rotation has already been living on a knife's edge this season at 19th in all of baseball. The results are even worse if one looks at just the second half as San Francisco's rotation is 23rd in baseball in fWAR and sports a 4.62 ERA in 101.1 innings.
Logan Webb has been great, but he is going to need some help if the Giants are going to finish this season off the way they want. Anthony DeSclafani getting hurt didn't make things any easier. The good news is that top prospect Kyle Harrison is back pitching at Triple-A after suffering a hamstring injury. Once he is stretched back out, he has the upside to give the Giants a boost down the stretch assuming San Francisco actually calls him up as expected. However, if things don't improve soon considering what their schedule looks like, the Giants could be in trouble.
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