3 ways the Lucas Giolito trade may have complicated the Giants trade deadline plans

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The San Francisco Giants were already having to thread the needle to navigate a somewhat difficult trade deadline with a lack of sellers and a questionable depth at their positions of need. On top of that, they have at least two teams in their division in the Dodgers and Diamondbacks that are going to be aggressive at the trade deadline making the margin for error very slim.

With the Angels deciding to keep Shohei Ohtani and making a trade for Lucas Giolito and Renaldo Lopez, San Francisco's plans just got that much more difficult. Normally, a trade between two American League teams wouldn't have too many consequences for the Giants, but this year is a little different.

Given the dynamics of the trade deadline this year with a ton of fringe contenders and teams that still don't know if they will buy or sell, the market is tilted heavily in favor of sellers and as we are likely to find out, that means that when dominos fall, things could get very interesting across the league.

Here are 3 ways the Lucas Giolito trade just complicated the Giants trade deadline plans

It is important to note that teams should not overreact to what other teams do. It could be easy to panic when one sees another team or teams being aggressive and trying to force moves. Staying true to team philosophy and player valuation is crucial to making the right moves. However, it would pretty naive to suggest that as moves get made, they don't have ripple effects on the market in the days leading up to the trade deadline.

Lets take a look at how the Lucas Giolito trade just made the Giants' trade deadline plans a bit harder.

The Giolito trade has set the starting pitcher rental prices pretty high

When the Angels traded for Giolito and Lopez, they received rentals from both the starter and reliever markets. Typically those players normally do not cost much in trade unless they are literally among the best players period at their position because you are only getting a couple months of team control for them.

However, the Angels were more aggressive than that in that trade as they sent their #2 and #3 prospects in Edgar Quero and Ky Bush to acquire them. Sure, the Angels' farm system isn't anything to write home about, but Quero is still a very strong catching prospect and Ky Bush was a second round pick just a couple years ago with very decent stuff who admittedly has struggled with injuries as a pro.

The Angels being willing to pay a premium for rentals is somewhat understandable given their desperation to make one last playoff run. However, what it means is that the market has been set for rental starters and relievers at a pretty high rate. The Cardinals have to be licking their chops for what they think they can get for Jordan Montgomery right now.

For a Giants' team that needs to add at least one starting pitcher and who would also love to add a true power bat and some bullpen depth, having the prices already jacked up for pitching rentals is less than ideal.

In the end, the Giants have the farm system to make almost any deal they really wanted to make and sanity will likely prevail as we get closer to the deadline. However, it does make it harder to strike early on the starter trade market when selling teams think that they can get an even bigger premium than usual for such deals.

The Angels being buyers gives the SF Giants even more competition on the pitching market

In addition to prices being set a bit higher than they would like, the Giants now have even more competition on the trade market in the demographics that they are interested in. Before the Angels made their intentions known to be buyers, most of the playoff contenders were looking for starting pitcher depth because, well, every contender is looking for that every year.

While the pitching market is certainly more robust than the bats at the trade deadline this year, the supply is certainly not enough to meet the demand as several of the really bad teams that should be sellers just don't have a ton of talent to deal (looking at you, Rockies, Athletics, and Royals). There are some options available, but contenders need real upgrades. Warm bodies are not going to get it done and Angels just made the supply even smaller with the two arms they snatched up.

Aside from the supply side problems, the Angels have also made the demand higher when they officially entered the fray. Sure, they made the move already, but they are also probably not done yet. The Angels are already rumored to be talking to the Nationals about a trade for Jeimer Candelario and probably need to add more pitching help as well.

Unfortunately, that means yet another team that the Giants are going to have to bid against. Adding one more team to the mix isn't usually the biggest of deals, but adding one more very aggressive team to an already crowded buyers market could make targeting specific players problematic.

The SF Giants may need to pivot to players with team control at the trade deadline

Given the fallout from the Giolito trade, the dynamics of the trade market seem to be shifting away from where the Giants would likely prefer to be. This is a very good team to be sure, but the demand (and therefore the prices) for short-term roster fixes at the deadline is getting pretty wild.

However, one should still expect the Giants to play in the rental reliever market. While Reynaldo Lopez is a talented arm, he was not the lynchpin of the bullpen trade market and relievers are in pretty high supply at the trade market still. If San Francisco is looking to add some short-term bullpen depth, they shouldn't have any issues doing so.

When it comes to starting pitchers and position upgrades, things get stickier. Again, the quality and quantity on the rental starting pitching market leaves something to be desired and the easily available position players are few and far between. One way that the Giants could deal with this is to look at players that have a healthy amount of team control available.

Controllable players are going to come with a heavier price premium, but it may be the best way for the Giants to get what they need and could open up some trade partners that are looking to retool their rosters for next year a bit instead of going into full rebuild mode. Dylan Cease and Tyler O'Neill could have been nice options here, but the White Sox and Cardinals have made it clear that they aren't looking to move those guys.

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