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3 ways the Juan Soto trade was a huge win for the SF Giants

While the Giants weren't able to snag Juan Soto, his trade last night still made their 2024 outlook much better.

By Eric Cole |
San Diego Padres v Chicago White Sox
San Diego Padres v Chicago White Sox / Nuccio DiNuzzo/GettyImages
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While the San Francisco Giants have laid dormant to start this offseason, the baseball world was turned on it's head last night as Juan Soto was finally traded to the Yankees after multiple snags and delays. One hopes that Soto finally having a home will make some dominoes fall this offseason because it has been slow going thus far.

It would have been amazing if the Giants would have been able to find some way to trade for Soto, but that was always pretty farfetched. Sure, San Diego really needed to shed some payroll especially in the wake of the passing of their owner, but sending arguably the best hitter in baseball to a division rival was a tough sell.

However, that doesn't mean that Soto's move to the Bronx didn't help out San Francisco in some very real ways.

Here are the ways that Juan Soto going to the Yankees was a win for the SF Giants

The Giants still have a lot of work to do this offseason and if they don't land at least one star-level player like Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Cody Bellinger, or Jordan Montgomery, the front office will deserve all the scorn they would get. However, the nice thing about how the Juan Soto trade went down is that it should help the Giants' chances in 2024 and they didn't even have to do anything.

Let's look at how Soto's trade to New York helped the Giants out.

The Padres getting worse only helps the SF Giants' playoff chances

The easiest way to illustrate this idea is with how the move impacts the division rival Padres. Unfortunately for San Diego, the 2023 season went sideways for them in a big way. Despite a run differential of +104 last season and a roster full of stars, some crummy luck and an inconsistent offense resulted in the Padres posting just an 82-80 record and being out of the playoff picture.

San Diego's situation has only gotten worse this offseason as they are set to lose Blake Snell, Josh Hader, Michael Wacha, and Seth Lugo in free agency. However, that Padres offense had enough talent in their lineup to at least make a strong run at a NL wild card slot in 2024.

However, the Padres' outlook looks a lot more murky with Soto headed out of town. In addition to having to basically rebuild most of their rotation with limited resources, San Diego is losing one of the best offensive players in baseball who put up a 155 wRC+ in 2023.

The most likely outcome is that the Padres take a big step back next season as they re-evaluate their plans and finances. They will remain dangerous as Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado still exist, but are also much less likely to compete for the playoff spots that the Giants are going to be looking to occupy in 2024.

The Dodgers missing out on Soto was a big help to the Giants

The same "trades in the division" problems that the Giants had in pursuing Soto applied to the Dodgers. The Dodgers could use an upgrade in left field and given the depth that LA has in their farm system, they could have put together a really competitive trade package for him.

The Dodgers are always going to be mentioned as a landing spot for any big name and Soto was no exception. LA has a lot of drawing power given how aggressive they are in fielding a contender each year, so taking one less option in Soto off the table for them is a nice ancillary benefit to every team in the NL West including the Giants.

How much this will ultimately matter is an open question. While the Dodgers won't have Soto in 2024, they are still extremely likely to add at least one big name this offseason. They are in a full court press to try and land Shohei Ohtani and are in the running for basically every top free agent starting pitcher on the market. Given that the Giants are competing with LA for all of those guys, it is more likely that how the free agent market shakes out will determine more than the Soto.

That said, the Dodgers looked very vulnerable last year and while they will have Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman again, there is a realistic possibility that they will miss out on most of the biggest names in free agency. If that happens, they could end up being even worse next year especially since they weren't able to add a bat like Soto's.

The SF Giants have one less competitor for outfield bats after the Soto trade

The Yankees' offense was truly bad last season. With Aaron Judge dealing with an injury and the rest of the lineup underperforming expectations, New York's position players ranked just 20th in all of baseball by fWAR in 2023. For a team that plays in a big market with a fan base that is notoriously impatient, that just isn't going to fly.

The problem for the Giants is that having a team like the Yankees that is willing to throw real money at their problems looking for outfield bats is, well, San Francisco would love to add an impact outfield bat this offseason as well. This is particularly pronounced when it comes to Cody Bellinger who would be a nice piece for San Francisco, but we all know how much the Yankees like to go after lefty power bats.

Now, the Yankees have added Soto as well as Alex Verdugo in the last couple of days. They will almost certainly remain active this offseason, but it wouldn't make much sense for them to continue to look for outfield bats anymore which should clear the path a bit for the Giants as they look to get their own underwhelming offense upgraded going into 2024.

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