FanSided

3 Top SF Giants starting pitching targets by SO/W ratio

By Jeff Young |
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The SF Giants have had a not-so-subtle approach to prospective pitching targets in recent seasons. Giants starters posted a 3.94 SO/W ratio in 2022, which ranked as the fourth-best mark in baseball. If you follow this metric, then you will see that any starting pitching target is hiding in plain sight.

3 Top SF Giants starting pitching targets by SO/W ratio

The Giants added four key arms to the rotation last winter and they all excelled in SO/W ratio in 2021:

Carlos Rodón: 5.14 SO/W ratio

Alex Wood: 3.90 SO/W ratio

Anthony DeSclafani: 3.62 SO/W ratio

Alex Cobb: 2.97 SO/W ratio

It is no surprise that San Francisco was one of the best teams in this metric in 2022 as this is seemingly a quality that they covet. To put it differently, SO/W ratio is a measure of how effectively pitchers pitch in the strike zone.

A higher rate means that pitches tend to tally a lot of strikeouts while limiting walks. The Giants like pitchers who attack the strike zone and this is one good way of measuring it.

But does it actually correlate with winning? Oddly enough, the Giants were the only starting pitching unit to rank in the top 10 of SO/W ratio and not make the playoffs. In the case of the New York Yankees (4.15 SO/W), Los Angeles Dodgers (3.65 SO/W), Houston Astros (3.51 SO/W), and Cleveland Guardians (3.28 SO/W ratio), they not only made the playoffs but finished in first place in their respective division.

If you are buying real estate, then it is good to do so where those teams are having success. At the very least, the Giants had success in that area in 2022 and will likely continue to target that in free agency. They will have at least one hole to fill with Rodón opting out of his contract.

Speaking of Rodón, he would be a very nice fit for the 2023 team. There are some targets like Justin Verlander, who has a player option for next season, and Clayton Kershaw who make sense from a SO/W standpoint but who I do not see as targets until their situation is clarified, so they are excluded.

The Giants will likely add multiple known starters next season, so I would not be surprised to see them add a notable name like the ones listed in this article as well as someone like Sean Manaea on a pillow contract to give them depth.

1. Ross Stripling - 5.55 SO/W ratio

At this point, I have talked myself into Ross Stripling being a legitimate target if the Giants miss out on Rodón. Stripling is coming off of a nice season but he does not have the track record or age in his favor like Rodón, meaning that he could be a more affordable option.

The right-handed hurler will be entering his age-33 season in 2023, but he is coming off of a strong campaign this season in which he recorded a 3.01 ERA, 3.11 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 7.4 K/9, and a 5.55 SO/W ratio in 32 appearances including 24 starts.

Plus, he tallied a 0.8 HR/9 rate, so he excels at keeping the ball in the ballpark. It does not hurt that he works at a quick tempo as well, which is an important trait for Giants pitchers as it helps keep the defense involved in the game.

Stripling has generally performed well throughout his career as he has posted a 3.78 ERA against a 3.93 FIP across seven seasons with the Blue Jays and the Dodgers. However, he does not have a predictable track record in terms of workload.

He has never exceeded 150 innings in any season nor has he made more than 24 starts. The 32-year-old works primarily out of the rotation but he pitches out of the bullpen a few times each year as well. Perhaps, Alex Wood is an apt comparison in terms of what he can do.

However, I would not be surprised to see Stripling get a deal similar to Steven Matz's four-year, $44 million deal from last winter. The average annual value (AAV) of $11 million is in the same neighborhood of several Giants starters including Wood ($12.5 million AAV), Alex Cobb ($10 million AAV), and Anthony DeSclafani ($12 million AAV).

Stripling would be in demand this offseason and that will likely turn out to be a very nice value addition in the same mold as when the Giants signed Cobb last offseason.

Tampa Bay Rays v Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays v Boston Red Sox / Winslow Townson/GettyImages

3 Top SF Giants starting pitching targets by SO/W ratio

2. Nathan Eovaldi - 5.15 SO/W ratio

There is a short list of pitchers who have returned from multiple Tommy John surgeries and Nathan Eovaldi is among the best in that group. When the right-handed hurler reached free agency after the 2018 season, the Giants were considered a potential landing spot.

I did a lot of research (which I can no longer find) of pitchers who have had multiple Tommy John surgeries and it was a short list. Not only that, but pitchers were rarely as effective or durable especially after the second surgery.

I suggested that he would not be a good fit at the time due in part to that and I was definitely wrong on that one. The 32-year-old inked a four-year, $68 million pact to remain with the Boston Red Sox that winter.

Despite a rough first season in which Eovaldi posted a 5.99 ERA in just 23 appearances, he followed that up with a 3.79 ERA in the ensuing three seasons. The 2022 campaign was a strong year in which he tallied a 3.87 ERA, 4.30 FIP, 8.5 K/9, and a 5.15 SO/W ratio in 20 starts.

The FIP is high and due to a very high 1.7 HR/9 ratio, which ranked as the fourth-worst mark in baseball among starters with a minimum of 100 innings pitched. This is a trend that spans multiple seasons, so some teams are going to be weary. He attacks the strike zone well, but likely sits too much in the zone at times.

With that being said, he still flashes a four-seam fastball that sits comfortably in the mid-90's that he pairs with a split finger and a curve ball that have proven to be tough to hit. Opposing hitters recorded just a .181 batting average against the split finger in 2022 to go along with a .197 batting average against the curve ball.

It feels like a change in pitch mix that puts more emphasis on the split finger and curve ball could yield even better results for Eovaldi. Similar to Ross Striping, the veteran starter will be entering his age-33 season in 2023, so there's a ceiling in terms of what to expect in terms of dollars and years.

That might be the type of deal that appeals to the Giants if they miss out on Carlos Rodón. Eovaldi is not a frontline starter anymore, but he gives you a chance to compete each time out while filling up the strike zone.

San Francisco Giants v Arizona Diamondbacks
San Francisco Giants v Arizona Diamondbacks / Chris Coduto/GettyImages

3 Top SF Giants starting pitching targets by SO/W ratio

3. Carlos Rodón - 4.56 SO/W ratio

You know what would help the Giants fill that Carlos Rodón-sized hole in that rotation? A brand new version of Carlos Rodón.

The Giants let Kevin Gausman walk in free agency last winter without making a legitimate offer. The right-handed hurler inked a five-year, $110 million pact with the Toronto Blue Jays and he was fantastic in the first year of that deal, posting a 3.35 ERA in 31 starts. The Giants cannot make the same mistake with Rodón. San Francisco will have more financial flexibility than just above every big-market club in baseball.

Of course, ability to spend and willingness to spend are two different concepts and the current front office has not proven that it is willing to spend on these lucrative, long-term deals.

The left-handed hurler signed a two-year, $44 million pact last offseason with an opt-out clause after the first season if he reached 110 innings. He reached that mark with ease and will certainly opt-out to become a free agent again.

Rodón was fantastic in a Giants uniform in 2022 as he recorded a 2.88 ERA, 2.25 FIP, 1.02 WHIP, 12.0 K/9, and a 4.56 SO/W ratio in 31 starts. He earned an NL All-Star nod and will receive votes for the NL Cy Young award when the voting results are released in November.

The veteran starter is poised to earn a huge payday as one of the best arms on the market. The Giants will hold a small amount of leverage as they will issue him a qualifying offer for $19.65 million, which he will reject. If he signs elsewhere, the team that signs him will lose a draft pick.

There are some players where the draft pick compensation becomes an issue for prospective teams, but I do not think that will be the case with the lefty. Rodón will likely produce more value over the course of his next contract than a potential draft pick.

He is a perfect fit with what the Giants like in a pitcher. He fills up the strike zone with a mid-90's four-seam fastball and a devastating slider. It is not hyperbole to say that he has been one of the best pitchers since the start of 2021.

Plus, Rodón will be turning 30 next year, so it is fair to assume that he has plenty of good seasons in front of him. The question will be whether the Giants are comfortable signing a pitcher to a long-term deal.

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