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3 SF Giants prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time this winter

By Jeff Young |
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In November, the SF Giants will have the decision of whether they want to protect any of their prospects from the Rule 5 draft. There are a handful of prospects who will be eligible for the first time this winter, including Erik Miller, Grant McCray, and Aeverson Arteaga.

3 SF Giants prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time this winter

Protection from the Rule 5 draft was part of the reason why the Giants added Marco Luciano and Luis Matos to the 40-man roster last offseason. Neither had played above Double-A, but the Giants were in a position where they had to add them to the 40-man roster or risk losing them through the Rule 5 draft.

The Rule 5 draft is a somewhat complicated practice in baseball. Essentially, if a team does not protect an eligible prospect by adding him to the 40-man roster, then another team can draft him away from the original team.

However, the team that drafts him has to keep him on the active roster for the entirety of the season to gain that player's option rights. Teams cannot stash a player on the injured list while doing this, but some teams do get creative with transactions involving a Rule 5 pick.

If the team does not keep a player, then he is typically placed on waivers with the expectation of returning to his original team. The hit rate is low in the Rule 5 draft, but Blake Sabol is an example of one of the successes. So, the Giants will have a decision to make as to whether they want to protect any eligible prospects.

1. Erik Miller

The Giants acquired reliever Erik Miller in an offseason trade that sent Yunior Marté to the Philadelphia Phillies. Miller was originally a fourth-round pick out of Stanford University by the Phillies in 2019.

He came up as a starter and still has the repertoire for a starter. However, below-average control will likely keep him in the bullpen. The left-handed reliever flashes a fastball that sits comfortably in the mid-90's with a quality slider and a plus changeup. The changeup is a true out pitch that has some nice fade action, getting hitters to swing right over it.

The move to the bullpen has been a good one for Miller. The 25-year-old tallied a 2.77 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, and a 1.78 SO/W ratio in 52 innings with the Sacramento River Cats this year. Miller had no problem pitching through traffic and the subpar control is partly due to the automated strike zone implemented for stretches of the 2023 season.

Given his repertoire and the fact that he has had success in Triple-A, there is a good chance that he would get selected in the Rule 5 draft. There is also a good chance that the Giants add him to the 40-man roster this winter.

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San Francisco Giants v Detroit Tigers / Brandon Sloter/GettyImages

3 SF Giants prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time this winter

2. Grant McCay

Grant McCray has arguably the highest upside of the Giants' prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft. The Giants selected the outfield prospect in the third round of the 2019 draft out of Lakewood Ranch High School in Brandenton, Florida.

McCray's pro career got off to a slow start given the canceled 2020 season and the fact that he appeared in only 45 games in the following season. The left-handed bat is still a bit raw in the batter's box but does a good job of consistently putting together competitive at-bats.

He registered a .255/.360/.417 line with 14 home runs, 66 RBI, and 101 runs in 584 plate appearances with the Eugene Emeralds this past season. This includes a 29.3 percent strikeout rate, 12.3 percent walk rate, and a .162 ISO.

The high strikeout rate is a bit of a red flag as there is some swing-and-miss to his game. Though, another factor is that he works a lot of deep counts, and with that comes some high strikeout totals. When he does make contact, the 22-year-old has flashed modest gap-to-gap power that could translate to a few more home runs down the road.

Importantly, McCray swiped 52 bags in 62 chances last season. Plus, his speed gives him a good chance at sticking in center field. The Giants need more athleticism on the roster, and he definitely brings that.

They may want to consider adding him to the 40-man roster. There is a chance that he gets added in the Rule 5 draft if left unprotected. However, the odds of him sticking are low. I think the lack of upper minors experience might be enough for teams to pass on him if he is left unprotected.

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Pittsburgh Pirates v San Francisco Giants / Lachlan Cunningham/GettyImages

3 SF Giants prospects who are eligible for the Rule 5 draft for the first time this winter

3. Aeverson Arteaga

Aeverson Arteaga really had a nice season in 2023. His improvements were on the quieter side, but there were some traits to be excited about. Before I dive into his season, I do not think there is a good chance that he gets drafted if left unprotected.

Similar to Grant McCray, he has had some success in the lower minors but no upper minors experience to merit a spot on another team's 40-man roster this winter.

Arteaga is still pretty raw in terms of game experience and his offensive profile needs further refinement. Though, it bears mentioning that he has played against older competition in each of the past two seasons.

His overall numbers may not jump off of the page, but I think that context is important. The right-handed bat slashed .235/.299/.410 with 17 home runs, 73 RBI, and 66 runs in 546 plate appearances for the Eugene Emeralds. This includes a 7.3 percent walk rate, 24.2 percent strikeout rate, and a .174 ISO.

The strikeout rate and ISO represented modest improvements compared to his 2022 season. The improved home run output looked to be a function of him getting more backspin on the ball. In 2022, it looked like he was getting more topspin on his swings, leading to more line drives and ground balls. His batted ball profile was nearly identical in 2023 compared to 2022, but it looked like he just got more carry on his swings.

In the field, Arteaga has spent nearly his entire career at shortstop and it is likely that this trend continues. The infield prospect is a sure-handed glove with a strong arm and does a nice job of making the routine plays.

I do not think the Giants will add him to the 40-man roster this winter, but he is quietly rising up the organization's depth chart as he should begin next season in Double-A.

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