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3 reasons why the SF Giants will not be able to sell at the MLB trade deadline

There is little doubt that the Giants would be sellers at the deadline every other year, but they can't in 2024 because they have nothing to sell.

By Jacob Taylor |
St. Louis Cardinals v San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals v San Francisco Giants / Casey Sykes/GettyImages
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The SF Giants are on the playoff bubble at the moment. With a 40-43 record, they sit 2.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals for the third and final Wild Card spot. Even if they hit a rough patch in July, it will be tough for the front office to sell.

3 reasons why the SF Giants will not be able to sell at the MLB trade deadline

1. Expiring Contracts and player options

The Giants spent a bunch of money in the offseason to push for a playoff spot for the first time since 2021 and the second time in Farhan Zaidi's tenure. Unfortunately, that spending spree has saddled them with several contracts that approach immovable even if the Giants decided to move on.

Blake Snell and Robbie Ray will be Giants in 2025 as both players have player options and neither is looking like they'll have any interest in opting out. Wilmer Flores has a player option for $3.5 million in 2025, but due to his struggles, he will be extremely difficult to move and will likely opt-in and remain on the Giants in 2025.

They are unlikely to get anything for Alex Cobb, who may not even see the field before the All-Star break. Michael Conforto got off to a hot start but has cooled since then and he currently has a -6.2 surplus trade value according to Baseball Trade Values showing his lack of value. Curt Casali was acquired for nothing and will get nothing in return. Luke Jackson has been terrible and is making $6.5 million this season with a club option for 2025.

Maybe someone takes a chance but it's doubtful. Only Austin Slater (1.6 BTV surplus) and Nick Ahmed (.9 BTV surplus) have positive trade value surpluses and are on expiring contracts. Neither will fetch much more than a low-level lottery ticket in return.

That's it, that is every expiring contract on the Giants roster, not a single one would fetch anything significant in a trade. In addition to expiring contracts, trying to trade players with options can be tricky. There are too many variables at play and teams are generally reluctant to acquire those with player options.

3 reasons why the SF Giants will not be able to sell at the MLB trade deadline

2. Players 30+ Under Contract Past 2024

Jorge Soler will make $16 million in 2025 compared to his $10 million this season and currently has a -13.1 BTV surplus, making him difficult to move. Taylor Rogers is making $12 million this season and will make the same in 2025. He's pitched well this season but he's 33 years old and that is a steep price tag.

Mike Yastrzemski is making $7.9 million this season and enters the final year of arbitration next season. He has a BTV surplus of 2.1 which won't get much in return. Lamonte Wade Jr.'s strong start leaves him as one of the better trade options with a BTV of 15.1 and one more year of arbitration next season. Tyler Rogers could get something but his BTV surplus is .7 and he's 33 years old. Finally, Tom Murphy has been awful, is currently hurt, and is guaranteed $4 next season.

There is nobody over the age of 30 and/or on an expiring contract that will net the Giants anything relevant in a trade at the deadline leaving the only guys that are worth anything being the young guys. Perhaps, the best value the Giants could even get from moving their veterans is the roster spot that it opens up.

3 reasons why the SF Giants will not be able to sell at the MLB trade deadline

3. Building Blocks

Let's get the untouchables out of the way. Patrick Bailey, Logan Webb, Heliot Ramos, and Kyle Harrison are not going anywhere. Anyone yet to reach arbitration will not be moved because they are on a bargain deal and young which leaves less than you may realize. Thairo Estrada stands out as an option to be moved considering the recent success of Brett Wisely and the presence of Casey Schmitt, Marco Luciano, and Tyler Fitzgerald.

The 28-year-old has two more years of arbitration after 2024 and a 13.7 BTV surplus making him a decent piece. That said, Estrada has been one of the Giants' best players over the last few seasons, and moving him would be a tough sell to the fan base.

Jordan Hicks gets a nice pay raise after this season going from $6.5 million to $12.5 million and he's signed through 2027. He has been a sensation this season and has a BTV surplus-value of 10 but he has a long injury history, has struggled recently, and likely has an innings limit. Furthermore, selling one of the best pitchers on the roster less than a full season after giving him a four-year deal would be an admittance of incompetence the Giants won't want to make. Austin Warren technically qualifies but he hasn't pitched in 2024 and likely will not before the deadline.

Finally, Camilo Doval. Doval enters his first year of arbitration in 2025 and should get a significant raise. He's had an up-and-down 2024 with a BTV surplus of 13.3. He would net a nice return but it is hard to believe the Giants would spend all that time coming up with a closer entrance with lights and spotlights just to ship him out that same year.

The Giants cannot sell because they have no one to sell. The only true trade options are Doval, Estrada, and Hicks. It would be tough to trade any of those players, get a mediocre return, and try to sell to that vision to the fanbase. Instead, the Giants will hold pat, acquire players on expiring contracts, and hope that this current roster can figure it out. There are only two outcomes to this season: a playoff appearance or the front office might be gone.

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