3 reasons why the SF Giants should try to sign Shohei Ohtani despite his injury

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When it was announced that Shohei Ohtani had torn his UCL in his throwing elbow, it created a firestorm of speculation across the league as to what this could mean for his pending free agency. Given that the San Francisco Giants have long been expected to be suitors for Ohtani's services, they now have a lot to think about.

There are plenty of reasons to just avoid signing Ohtani altogether. While his price (probably) just went down, he will still be very pricey and there is no guarantee whatsoever that he will ever be the pitcher was again given that this could be his second Tommy John surgery in five years. It is also not known how long Shohei could be out to start the 2024 season which, again, muddies the waters a good bit. For a guy that is still going to command a massive contract, that is a lot of uncertainty.

However, despite all of that, it is probably a mistake for the Giants to close off the possibility of signing Ohtani this offseason. The price has to be right and the medical staff will have to do their due diligence, but Shohei still checks a lot of boxes the Giants want to check even if he ends up needing elbow surgery.

Here are 3 reasons why the SF Giants should try to sign Ohtani despite his injury

One thing to keep in mind is that we are operating with a lot of incomplete information here, so things could change significantly. It isn't even known yet as to whether or not Ohtani is going to require Tommy John and even when that becomes clear, important things to consider are how a potential surgery goes, how long his recovery is expected to take, what his scans look like, etc. This article is going to be mostly operating under the basic assumption that he will need surgery and his future as a starter is in doubt while ackowledging that the news could be either better or worse than that.

Let's take a look a the 3 reasons why the Giants should still consider signing Shohei Ohtani even with his elbow injury.

Even with surgery, Ohtani should still be able to contribute at the plate

There is no denying that the biggest allure of signing Ohtani was that he was both an elite hitter as well as a frontline starting pitcher all rolled up in one player. Assuming that Ohtani does indeed need his second Tommy John surgery, he will most certainly not pitch in 2024 and there is a realistic chance that his days as a starting pitcher could be numbered.

However, it is Shohei's bat that should keep the Giants interested in signing him. The Giants have been looking for a marquee bat for a while now and over the last three seasons (including 2023), Shohei has averaged a .962 OPS while clubbing 124 home runs. Ignoring his pitching production completely, this is still the type of hitter than does not hit the market often and who should interest the Giants.

The elephant in the room, of course, is how long Shohei's injury will keep off the field altogether. However, Bryce Harper's recovery from his own Tommy John surgery should provide a certain level of optimism as he starting hitting again less than six months after TJS. Shohei, too, has already made a quick return to the plate in his career after elbow surgery his first time under the knife.

The rules could be different for Tommy John #2 hence the importance of the Giants doing their medical due diligence with Ohtani to see what they are comfortable with, but there is a lot of evidence to suggest that Shohei could still be a very valuable bat for most of the 2024 season even if surgery is in the cards.

That brings us back to the Giants' decision calculus this offseason. A quick look at the bats available in free agency this offseason shows a rather large gap between Ohtani and everyone else. This is a Giants' team that needs offense and star power. Even if Ohtani never pitches again, he is still a guy that should stay high on the Giants' wish list.

Ohtani's upside for the SF Giants is still unparalleled

While a more bearish look at Ohtani's future still shows a guy that should be a fantastic hitter going forward, it is impossible to ignore the potential upside with Shohei if he is able to pitch well again. Before his injury, this was a guy that was set to sign the biggest contract in MLB history thanks to his production on both sides of the ball.

A record deal is probably off the table now (more on that in a bit), but that two-way upside is still possible. Multiple pitchers have now come back from two Tommy John surgeries successfully with Nathan Eovaldi being a notable one and that doesn't even account for guys like Jacob deGrom and Walker Buehler who are rehabbing from #2 as we speak. It is far from a certainty that Shohei will be a dominant starter again, but neither is he doomed to failure.

Let's assume for the moment that Ohtani does indeed need a second Tommy John surgery and for whatever reason, he is no longer able to be a starter. There is nothing that would keep the Giants from trying Ohtani out in the bullpen. While not an ideal situation, it would also be hard to not be excited about the prospect of Ohtani's stuff playing up in shorter relief stints.

In short, there is a case to be made that for the right price, signing Ohtani strictly as a bat still makes sense for the Giants. However, there are a lot of people that are assuming Shohei's pitching career is over and that seems like a mistake especially when calculating his potential value going forward.

Ohtani just got significantly cheaper (probably) for the SF Giants to sign

The biggest change that has happened in the wake of Shohei's injury has been how much money he is expected to get in free agency. Before the injury, crazy contract numbers like $500 million over 10 years were being floated as realistic possibilities for Ohtani. It is even crazier that there were several teams that seemed to actually be in the running to pay him that much, including the Giants.

It is clear that the Giants seem to have the green light to spend a lot of money to bring a superstar to San Francisco if their pursuits of Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa are any indication. Given that his pitching career is understandably in doubt, it is highly likely that Ohtani will have to "settle" for not a record deal with Aaron Judge's contract with the Yankees being a reasonable starting point assuming Shohei's medicals aren't too damning.

Given that the Giants clearly have some money burning a hole in their pocket and that they were already at least somewhat interested when Shohei was set to make Scrooge McDuck money, they should definitely be interested now that his price has presumably come down. Again, there is a lot of uncertainty here given that we don't know exactly the extent of Shohei's injury and recovery timetable, but expect the Giants to feature prominently in the Shohei rumor mill this offseason.

One way things could work for both sides would be a very creatively worded contract with incentives for playing time on both sides of the ball. Such an arrangement could be beneficial for both sides as the Giants would be protected in the event that Ohtani can't start anymore, but Shohei could also play his way into making close to the money he thought he was going to make before he got hurt.

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