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3 reasons why Blake Snell might not be a fit for the SF Giants

By Jeff Young |
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The SF Giants have been connected to Blake Snell quite a bit this offseason as they are a logical landing spot for the two-time Cy Young winner. That will continue until he signs one way or the other. What are some reasons that he may not be a fit for San Francisco?

3 reasons why Blake Snell might not be a fit for the SF Giants

None of the remaining free-agent options offer more upside than the left-handed hurler. Snell is coming off of an excellent 2023 campaign in which he posted a 2.25 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, and a 2.36 SO/W ratio in 32 appearances for the San Diego Padres.

It is hard to call 2023 a career year given that he tallied a 1.89 ERA in 31 outings with the Tampa Bay Rays during his first Cy Young season in 2019. Nevertheless, Snell really could not have had a much better season in a contract year.

The veteran pitcher will be entering his age-31 season and while that may be concerning, he continues to rack up high strikeout totals while flashing a mid-90's fastball with an excellent curveball, changeup, and slider.

It is hard to project exactly how velocity will regress as a player ages, but Snell has a sturdy 6-foot-4, 225-pound frame that should allow him to maintain velocity into his 30's. With all that being said, there are still some concerns that the Giants would need to consider.

1. Below-average command

Perhaps, the biggest factor against San Francisco being a potential landing spot is Snell's below-avergae command. The lefty pitcher led baseball with 99 walks in 2023 despite excellent results otherwise.

This has a downstream effect in that Snell's pitch count usually runs high earlier into the game, meaning shorter starts. He averaged just 5.2 innings per start in 2023, which is not uncharacteristic throughout his eight-year career.

Snell has tallied a 4.1 BB/9 rate since he debuted with the Rays back in 2016. That would be the highest rate in baseball by far among active pitchers with at least 1,000 career innings. Snell is just shy of that mark at 992.2 innings.

Rich Hill (3.5 BB/9) and Lucas Giolito (3.4 BB/9) have the highest walk rates among active pitchers with at least 1,000 innings under their belt. Both have had nice careers, but there is some variability in performance year-over-year. Snell's command will have to improve at some point or the back end of his deal might be tough once his fastball velocity and the rest of his pitch mix regresses.

On the other hand, the Giants led baseball with a 2.5 BB/9 rate in 2023. They like pitchers who attack and can command their pitches in all four quadrants of the strike zone. Adding Snell would go against the grain of the team's pitching philosophy.

3 reasons why Blake Snell might not be a fit for the SF Giants

2. Durability and workloand concerns

This reason is not necessarily unique to the Giants. With below-average command, that would run counter to the Giants' approach to pitching, but some teams have a higher tolerance for it. It helps when you can back it up like Blake Snell, who has won a Cy Young award in each league.

With that being said, the Giants and other suitors must be concerned with how low the ceiling typically is on Snell's workload. The lefty pitcher has completed at least 150 innings just twice in his eight-year career with 2023 being one of those cases. In fairness, he did throw 180 innings last year, which is a full workload for today's pitcher.

It would be hard to project him to tally 200 innings or more in a season when he has not done that before. It could change, but recent history would suggest otherwise.

In 2023, Snell averaged 5.2 innings per start. That is a tad higher than his career mark of about 5.1 innings per start. He does not often give a team length due in part to his below-average command. Pitch counts tend to run high early in the game. How does a quality like this evolve as a pitcher ages? Does it mean that he will only be averaging 4.2 innings per start by the end of his next contract?

However, there has also been an intentional effort to protect him from the third turn in the lineup as is the case with many pitchers. Snell is an exciting pitcher to watch and would bring fans to the ballpark, but he is not a workhorse in a traditional sense.

3 reasons why Blake Snell might not be a fit for the SF Giants

3. Draft pick compensation

The Giants have not signed a player who rejected a qualifying offer in nearly 10 years. That was when they signed Jeff Samardzija to a five-year, $90 million pact in 2015. It has not necessarily been a non-starter for the Giants in recent years, but if they are going to do it, they would prefer it to be for a player on a longer-term deal.

For example, Noah Syndergaard rejected a qualifying offer from the New York Mets after the 2021 season. He ended up signing with the Los Angeles Angels on a one-year, $21 million deal. That type of deal would not make sense for the Giants.

The penalty for signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer is the loss of the second-highest pick and $500,000 in international bonus pool money. The penalty varies depending on a few factors, but that would be the cost for a team like the Giants if they signed Blake Snell.

Snell rejected a qualifying offer from the San Diego Padres earlier in the offseason, so there is draft pick compensation tied to his name. Would this preclude the Giants from signing the lefty pitcher?

It is part of the equation, but would not be a non-starter on its own, especially given that Snell will likely earn a deal of more than five years. Theoretically, he would be in a Giants uniform for a long time and would offer more value than that of a second-round pick. The Giants' farm system is turning the corner, but the penalty would be a bitter pill to swallow for a team that has not consistently produced from the farm system in years.

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