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3 reasons why Aaron Judge would want to join the SF Giants

By Jeff Young |
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The offseason has not yet officially began but the Aaron Judge rumors continue to churn. It would be one thing if only one writer speculated on Judge being a fit for the SF Giants, but many baseball insiders have said the same thing. It is hard to ignore at this point.

3 reasons why Aaron Judge would want to join the SF Giants

There are plenty of reasons why Judge would return to the New York Yankees next year. He is extremely popular and he will become one of the highest-paid players in baseball history as soon as the ink dries on his next deal.

Plus, it does not hurt that many legendary Yankees players like Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, and Don Mattingly spent their entire career in pinstripes. Remaining with one organization for an entire career is becoming increasingly rare, but Judge will have that choice to make.

The power-hitting outfielder would be a perfect fit for all 30 baseball teams. Some small-market clubs will say they cannot afford him and that is a lie. It might not be the right time for other clubs. That said, adding Judge makes every team better.

The 30-year-old is coming off of a historic season in which he slashed .311/.425/.686 (211 OPS+) with 62 home runs, 132 RBI, and 133 runs in 696 plate appearances with the Yankees. This includes a 16.0 percent walk rate against a 25.1 percent strikeout rate.

He earned his fourth All-Star nod and is one of the heavy favorites to take home the AL MVP award. Judge turned down a seven-year, $213.5 million extension last winter and that is one bet that will pay off handsomely. He is set to earn way more than that in free agency.

But where will he land is the question? The Yankees are likely the favorites for many reasons but why would he choose the Giants instead?

1. Geography

Geography is one of those factors that tend to get overlooked with any prospective free agent for any team but it plays a huge role in the final decision. In fact, players typically filter prospective teams based on geography.

If a player wants to play in a warmer climate, then that likely rules out Cincinnati or Cleveland. With Judge, New York holds a lot of appeal because that is where he has played since 2016. He and his wif, Samantha Judge, have grown up there and are very familiar with the area.

However, that is not the only familiar area in Judge's life. The right-handed bat grew up in Linden, California. He attended Linden High School where he was drafted in the 31st round of the 2010 draft by the Oakland A's but did not sign.

He did not move far for college as he went to Fresno State before being selected in the first round of the 2013 draft by the Yankees. He is native to Northern California and grew up a Giants fan with longtime Giants shortstop Rich Aurilia being his favorite player.

Is returning to Northern California enough to sway Judge from the only organization he has ever known? That remains to be seen but it is one of the reasons why so many writers and insiders believe there is a connection.

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3 reasons why Aaron Judge would want to join the SF Giants

2. Money

When Farhan Zaidi was hired as team president of baseball operations in November of 2018, he inherited an aging roster with a lot of underperforming, lucrative contracts. For years, the Giants were limited with spending due to these contracts.

Giants fans understood this and were patient with the front office as they reached a blank slate with the roster. At this point, the roster consists almost entirely of players signed by the current regime.

San Francisco is in a position so spend as they will have in the neighborhood of $110 million below the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) or salary cap. I should add that Wilmer Flores' cap hit is slightly higher at $8.25 million because his two-year, $13 million extension includes a guarantee of at least $3.5 million for 2025, which increases his cap hit.

The Giants have had a payroll of about $170 million against the cap over the past couple of seasons but the front office seems poised to raise that number this winter. They are not going on a spending spree all in one offseason but they will make calculated increases to the payroll.

Judge will earn a massive payday this winter and few big-market teams will be able to compete for his services due to prior obligations. For example, the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres both exceeded the $230 million CBT in 2022 according to Cots, so they remain in a position to spend but it may not be in the Judge aisle of free agency.

Similarly, the Yankees went way over the CBT this year as well. They have shown limited concern for the CBT in the past, so that will not be an obstacle in keeping Judge.

But if there is a team with more financial flexibility than the Yankees, it is the Giants. One of the reasons that Judge is such a logical fit is because the Giants have so little committed against the cap and have a massive need for star power. It makes plenty of sense on paper.

That said, the front office has not proven that it is willing to spend heavily on one target, so Giants fans might be in a wait-and-see mode.

Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants / Lachlan Cunningham/GettyImages

3 reasons why Aaron Judge would want to join the SF Giants

3. Change of scenery

The rule of a slideshow is that if you are going to do it, then you better do at least three slides. With that in mind, a change of scenery completes the Rule of 3.

The truth is, there probably are not a lot of reasons that Judge would want to leave the only organization he has ever known. There has to be a total breakdown in negotiations for that to happen but it happens every offseason.

Did anyone think that Freddie Freeman was going to be wearing a different uniform when last offseason began? No, but it happens sometimes.

Perhaps, Judge feels like he has accomplished all that he can in a Yankees uniform. After nearly a full decade with the same organization, maybe he feels that the grass is greener on the other side or that he wants a new challenge.

Maybe he sees players like Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, or Don Mattingly and realizes that he does not want to be forever tied to one organization. Maybe he wants to be a part of the organization he cheered for as a kid.

Longtime Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford grew up a Giants fan\ and it is one of the many qualities that has made him truly a special player in Giants history. Could Judge want a change of scenery after turning down such a massive extension last winter?

That is one way to read his decision. Of course, the other way is that he felt like he was worth more than what the Yankees offered, so he went out and proved it. At the end of the day, Judge will make the decision as to whether he wants to remain in New York for the rest of his career.

However, he will be in a unique situation this offseason as other organizations will court him to try and pry him away from New York. Could that be enough to make the move? That what-if scenario of joining another team could just be too much for him to turn down.

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