3 reasons the SF Giants should avoid third baseman Matt Chapman

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The SF Giants have been connected to a lot of free agents this offseason, including veteran third baseman Matt Chapman. We already looked at three reasons why the Giants should sign him, so we are presenting the other side of that argument.

3 reasons the SF Giants should avoid third baseman Matt Chapman

The 30-year-old just finished a solid 2023 campaign with the Toronto Blue Jays. He registered a .240/.330/.424 line (108 OPS+) with 17 home runs, 54 RBI, and 66 runs in 581 plate appearances. This includes a 10.7 percent walk rate, 28.4 percent strikeout rate, and a .185 ISO.

It was the first time in the last five full seasons that the righty bat did not swat at least 20 home runs. However, Chapman continued his strong run of durability by appearing in at least 140 games for the fifth straight full season.

There is no question about his defensive fit. Wherever the veteran third baseman signs, he will immediately bolster that team's infield defense. In 2023, Chapman took his fourth Gold Glove award while posting +4 Outs Above Average (OAA) at the hot corner.

1. There Are Other (Better?) Options

According to Fangraphs, Chapman is due to receive approximately four years and $80 million in free agency this year. That would be in addition to a lost draft pick due to the qualifying offer he received from Toronto. The AAV would be $20 million which is good for 7th among 3B in MLB.

Chapman is projected for a 2.6 WAR in 2024. In that same vein, Jeimer Candelario is due to receive three years, $36 million. He has no qualifying offer attached to him so no draft pick compensation is required to sign him. His AAV would place him 11th among 3B in MLB. Candelario is projected for a 1.8 WAR in 2024. Therefore, the Giants could sign Jeimer Candelario for $8 million less a year with one less year of commitment.

No compensation would have to be forfeited, unlike Chapman. All for .8 less WAR. Not to mention Candelario is a switch hitter, can play multiple positions, and is the same age as Chapman. If the SF Giants were to pair Candelario and J.D. Davis (proj. 1.9 WAR in 2024) together you get 3.7 WAR for approximately $18.9 million or they can sign Chapman for $20 million a year for 2.6 WAR.

3 reasons the SF Giants should avoid third baseman Matt Chapman

2. Another Swing and Miss Bat

Another reason Matt Chapman may not be a good fit is the fact that he adds to an offensive issue that is rampant in the Giants lineup already - strikeouts. The Giants finished 2023 with the seventh-most strikeouts, sixth-highest strikeout rate, and only had two players above 70th percentile in K%.

Chapman finished 2023 in the 19th percentile in K%, 9th percentile in whiff %, and finished 4th in total strikeouts among 3B. One of the biggest issues across the Giants lineup is the swing-and-miss that has persisted over the last several years. Chapman would do nothing to improve that area of the roster. The definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result. If the Giants continue to sign players that add to the swing-and-miss problem instead of detracting from it, the issues with the offense will continue to persist.

3. Age & Regression

This is less of a concern than the other two but should not be disregarded. Chapman is 30 years old and recently had his worst offensive season since 2021.

Chapman finished 2023 with a 110 wRC+ (100 is avg), which is acceptable considering the elite defense. However, it was propped by a .319 BABIP, which compared to his career .295 shows that luck could have factored into his performance. Chapman's .185 ISO is the lowest of his career, his 17 HR was also the lowest of his career in a full season, and his 39.3% pull % is the lowest of his career.

These are underlying numbers that point to a possible offensive regression which lines up well with his age regression. Chapman should be a fine offensive player but he won't make an impact and for $20 million a year over four years there must be an offensive impact.

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3 reasons the SF Giants should avoid third baseman Matt Chapman

3 reasons the SF Giants should avoid third baseman Matt Chapman

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