3 reasons the SF Giants should avoid third baseman Matt Chapman
2. Another Swing and Miss Bat
Another reason Matt Chapman may not be a good fit is the fact that he adds to an offensive issue that is rampant in the Giants lineup already - strikeouts. The Giants finished 2023 with the seventh-most strikeouts, sixth-highest strikeout rate, and only had two players above 70th percentile in K%.
Chapman finished 2023 in the 19th percentile in K%, 9th percentile in whiff %, and finished 4th in total strikeouts among 3B. One of the biggest issues across the Giants lineup is the swing-and-miss that has persisted over the last several years. Chapman would do nothing to improve that area of the roster. The definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result. If the Giants continue to sign players that add to the swing-and-miss problem instead of detracting from it, the issues with the offense will continue to persist.
3. Age & Regression
This is less of a concern than the other two but should not be disregarded. Chapman is 30 years old and recently had his worst offensive season since 2021.
Chapman finished 2023 with a 110 wRC+ (100 is avg), which is acceptable considering the elite defense. However, it was propped by a .319 BABIP, which compared to his career .295 shows that luck could have factored into his performance. Chapman's .185 ISO is the lowest of his career, his 17 HR was also the lowest of his career in a full season, and his 39.3% pull % is the lowest of his career.
These are underlying numbers that point to a possible offensive regression which lines up well with his age regression. Chapman should be a fine offensive player but he won't make an impact and for $20 million a year over four years there must be an offensive impact.