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3 biggest SF Giants surprises through the first 40 games of the season

By Jeff Young |
Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants
Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants / Suzanna Mitchell/San Francisco Giants/GettyImages
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Earlier this week, we looked at the three biggest disappointments from the SF Giants season so far. However, it has not been all bad. There have been some promising stories to follow as well.

3 biggest SF Giants surprises through the first 40 games of the season

The Giants are past the 40-game mark, so we are tardy in putting this together. They have a 22-25 overall record while sitting in third place in a tough NL West division. They are 0.5 games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks who also have playoff aspirations after reaching the World Series last season.

Oddly, the NL West expected to be a very tough division. That could still be the case, but the Los Angeles Dodgers are the only team in the division with a winning record.

1. Jordan Hicks

Jordan Hicks has not only been the biggest surprise on the Giants so far, but he has been one of the biggest surprises from last year's free-agent class. It was a surprise when the Giants landed him on a four-year, $44 million pact with the intention of converting him into a starter.

In fairness, Hicks was drafted as a starter by the St. Louis Cardinals but he was shifted to the bullpen as that was the fastest way for him to reach the majors. The Cardinals did try to stretch him out again in 2022, but the results were mixed.

There were several questions that Hicks needed to answer in being able to become a starter. The first was simply whether he would throw enough strikes. The 27-year-old has flashed a high-90's sinker with a good sweeper. More recently, he has added a splitter to his arsenal. Perhaps, to better hone his control, Hicks' sinker sits comfortably in the mid-90's.

The other question was durability. Hicks has never thrown more than 77.2 innings in a season, so the Giants will have to consider how many innings he can realistically throw down the stretch. Through 48 innings, he has posted a 2.44 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.14 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, and a 2.44 SO/W ratio. This includes a 56.2 percent ground ball rate.

The early returns on this deal have been promising and a quietly shrewd move by the front office. This experiment is likely to entice to try this out with other relievers even if the Giants did not start this trend.

Colorado Rockies v San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies v San Francisco Giants / Kavin Mistry/GettyImages

3 biggest SF Giants surprises through the first 40 games of the season

2. Thairo Estrada

It feels odd calling Thairo Estrada's start to the season a surprise. After all, he has been one of the team's more valuable players over the past few seasons.

However, Estrada sustained a hand fracture midway through last season. There is a stark contrast in his numbers before and after the injury. The right-handed bat posted a solid .762 OPS with nine home runs in 315 plate appearances in the first half of the season. He slumped to a .688 OPS with five home runs in 215 plate appearances following the injury.

Hand and wrist injuries that occur during the season can be tricky. Estrada healed from the fracture and was able to make it back, but I do wonder how a mid-season injury like this affects a player's numbers once they return. There is seemingly a loss of strength that is tough to recover right away.

That slump appears to be a thing of the past. He is slashing .250/.274/.435 (102 wRC+) with a 2.9 percent walk rate, 18.3 percent strikeout rate, and a .185 ISO. The walk rate is way too low, but that has rarely been a strength.

The righty bat has a .269 BABIP in 2024 compared to a league norm of a .300 BABIP. It is fair to assume that his batting average should trend upward even if he has seemingly overperformed his .231 expected batting average.

Perhaps, the encouraging part is the .185 ISO. He is hitting for more power than he has in the past. Not surprisingly, he has already reached seven home runs, which is halfway to his career-high of 14 set in 2022 and 2023.

Plus, Estrada continues to play excellent defense. He has been worth +6 Outs Above Average (OAA) at second base in 2024. Only Marcus Semien (+10 OAA) has a better mark among second basemen.

Colorado Rockies v San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies v San Francisco Giants / Kavin Mistry/GettyImages

3 biggest SF Giants surprises through the first 40 games of the season

3. Kyle Harrison

The Giants rotation has not been the strength that it needs to be. That unit has posted a 4.40 ERA so far in 2024, which is the 10th-worst mark in baseball. Perhaps, that number is skewed a bit by Daulton Jefferies and Blake Snell's rough outings, but the numbers are what they are.

They have good components like Logan Webb, Jordan Hicks, and Kyle Harrison. Since being selected in the third round of the 2020 draft, Harrison has been regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.

He reached Triple-A in 2023 and posted a 4.66 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 14.4 K/9, and a 2.19 SO/W ratio in 20 starts for Sacramento. Those are solid numbers, especially the strikeout rate, in a hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. The Giants committed to having him in the rotation this season and the question was whether he could stick without experiencing the slumps that often come with rookies.

That has not been the case at all. The left-handed hurler has registered a 3.60 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 8.0 K/9, and a 2.57 SO/W ratio through 10 starts. The Giants asked him to throw more in the strike zone even if it leads to misses in the middle of the plate. Harrison did have a few of those to start the year, but he has settled down lately.

There will be speed bumps along the way, but Harrison is starting to look like a pitcher who could help anchor the Giants rotation along with Logan Webb for years to come.

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