Pair of young SF Giants players projected to earn raises in first trip through arbitration

On Monday, MLB Trade Rumors published its projected arbitration salaries for 2026. The projection shows that Patrick Bailey and Ryan Walker will be among the players eligible for notable pay bumps in 2026.

Pair of young SF Giants players projected to earn raises in first trip through arbitration

MLB rookie contracts have two phases. The first phase is the pre-arbitration years. This phase usually runs for three years, and players usually make around the league minimum during this time. Players will see a small raise each season during this phase, and the calculation for the raise varies by team.

For example, Bailey had a salary of $747,500 in 2024, but saw that number increase to $780,000 this past season. Sometimes, the production substantially outweighs the cost. In 2008, Tim Lincecum was making near the league minimum while taking home the first of his two NL Cy Young Awards.

The second phase of the rookie contract is when a player reaches arbitration. At this point, they have some control in negotiating their salary for the upcoming season. This usually runs for another three seasons.

Bailey and Walker are in a unique spot, as they should qualify for Super 2 status, which is when a player will go through arbitration four times. This is based on service time, and the cutoff to quality is usually published around this time of year. We will break that down once this number is made public, but MLB Trade Rumors is assuming that they will be eligible for arbitration. It also means they should net a modest raise in 2026.

• JT Brubaker: $2.1 million
• Andrew Knizner: $1.3 million
• Joey Lucchesi: $2 million
• Ryan Walker: $2.5 million
• Patrick Bailey: $2.2 million

Arbitration salaries can be a relatively large and variable expense for many teams. That will not be the case for the Giants, as these arbitration projections will account for a small percentage of the team's overall payroll in 2026.

At those projections, tendering Lucchesi, Bailey, and Walker a contract for 2026 should be an easy decision. They do not have much catching depth on the 40-man roster, so it might make sense for the Giants to bring back Knizner.

Brubaker pitched for the Giants in the final month of the year. He allowed six earned runs in 12.2 frames, so the Giants may consider non-tendering the veteran pitcher.