No, the SF Giants should not waste their time pursuing another superstar free agent this winter

Last offseason, the biggest story was where Shohei Ohtani would be landing. The year before that, it was Aaron Judge – and this year, it’s Juan Soto. The main thing those three guys have in common, other than a propensity for hitting baseballs a long way, is that the SF Giants will have been involved in all their markets and come up short for each one of them. If you’ve been holding your breath, exhale – Juan Soto is probably not coming to San Francisco.

No, the SF Giants should not waste their time pursuing another superstar free agent this winter

The Giants will be in the mix along with the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Nationals, and at least half a dozen other medium- to big-market clubs. Jon Heyman of the New York Post, who’s always game to help drum up interest for Scott Boras' clients, reported on Halloween that 11 teams had already reached out to Soto’s camp, and presumably the Giants were one of them.

What team hoping to get better wouldn’t at least check in on the simplest way to upgrade your lineup in one move, especially when that player is coming off a career year in an already stellar career. According to Fangraphs, Soto was worth 8.1 WAR and carried a 180 wRC+ with 41 homers, all of which were career-bests discounting 2020.

Unfortunately for the Giants and every other team looking to acquire his services, those eye-popping numbers came in a contract year. Teams won’t just have to pony up, they’ll have to take out a second mortgage on the whole stable. “It’s a lot of money that people are talking about,” Soto himself said when asked about his free agency mere minutes after his team just got done losing the World Series. Certainly, he’s not wrong about that. Though it’s purely conjecture, some pundits have hypothesized that his contract could match or even exceed the real dollar value of Ohtani’s record-smashing $700 million deal, considering most of that money was deferred.

Ohtani is a unicorn in a way that Soto just isn’t, though. In fact, Soto probably isn’t even in the same stratosphere as Ohtani, and not just in his talent – even more importantly, in his marketability. Ohtani has the entire country of Japan behind him, and being the first elite two-way player since Babe Ruth has turned him into possibly the most marketable player MLB has ever seen.

To put it in perspective, more Japanese households tuned into Dodger playoff games this year than American ones. The Dodgers are going to be profiting immensely from Ohtani’s services for many years to come, and whatever team signs Soto won’t see anything quite like that kind of return on investment. If Soto’s camp wants to approach Ohtani numbers, the Giants should walk – actually, probably jog – away, because some other team might be desperate enough to fork it over.

Aside from the financials, and the simple fact that Soto would almost surely prefer to sign with a ready-made contender in a bigger market, there are other factors that cast doubt of whether a pursuit of Soto would be wise for the Giants. For one, there’s the Oracle Park factor.

Oracle Park is a notoriously tough-hitting environment, particularly for left-handers such as Soto who aren’t named Barry Bonds. Left-handed hitters in 2024 slugged about 23% fewer home runs in Oracle Park than they would have in a neutral venue according to Statcast, which was the third-lowest in baseball.

Michael Conforto can vouch for how tough McCovey Cove can be after slashing .216/.292/.341 at home and a much better .253/.323/.530 on the road in 2024. So would Soto want to move to a park that’s much tougher on hitters like him than his old home of Yankee Stadium, all while joining a less competitive team with far less lineup protection? Your guess is as good as mine, but my guess is no. If Soto drew a lot of walks before, he might never see a strike again for the duration of his contract.

On top of the concerns down the right-field line, another thing about Oracle Park is there’s a lot of grass to patrol. Soto’s still only 26 even though it feels like he’s been around forever, but he’s already a below-average defender with limited range. That’s a skill set that will deteriorate even further as he gets older, so he could be a full-time DH by the time he’s 30. Is that palatable if he’s signed to a 13-year deal?

That’s something Buster Posey and ownership will have to wrestle with. And make no mistake – this isn’t a case where all the Giants have to do is match the highest offer and Soto will come running. To earn Soto’s favor, the Giants would have to outbid every one of the other 29 teams, and probably not just by a little. It’s what the Rockies had to do to attract Kris Bryant, and the Tigers had to do to attract Javier Báez – and how are those contracts working out?

This isn’t only a case of sour grapes, even though it is just a bit. Juan Soto is still a fantastic baseball player, he probably will be for quite a while, and whatever team signs him will instantly become more formidable.

However, the hard truth of the matter is that a pursuit of Soto isn’t just unrealistic for the Giants – it’s also unwise. Posey has already come out and admitted they’re scouring the market for shortstops, while pitching and athleticism are certainly areas of concern that need to be addressed as well.

It would be so, so much fun to pencil a name like Soto’s at the top of the lineup every single day, but it’s just not going to happen. There are a lot of paths for the Giants to incrementally build up a sustainable winner, and Soto isn’t the path that should be trodden down – it’s just too steep, and the gravel looks pretty loose. Paving their way to contention is going to take the Giants time, and many smaller moves, to do right.

While the Giants should pursue Soto this offseason, recent history is not in the Giants' favor when it comes to swaying the top free agents. Plus, there is a case to be made that their time could be better spent elsewhere.