MLB Pipeline predicts that SF Giants outfield prospect will make a jump in 2026

MLB Pipeline highlighted one prospect from each organization that they predict will make a jump in 2026. For the SF Giants, outfield prospect Rayner Arias gets the nod.

MLB Pipeline predicts that SF Giants outfield prospect will make a jump in 2026

Arias headlined the Giants' international free agency class in 2023, signing for $2.7 million out of the Dominican Republic. It marked one of their largest investments in that channel.

By the way, the 2026 international free agency period is set to open in a couple of weeks. The Giants will have one of the lowest bonus pools at $5.4 million, but they are expected to sign top middle infield prospect Luis Hernández out of Venezuela. He is considered one of the top prospects in this year's class, and if the signing goes through, it would mark the second straight year in which the Giants landed one of the top prospects in that channel.

In 2025, they added another middle infielder in Josuar Gonzalez out of the Dominican Republic. There is a hard cap on those bonus pools, so teams cannot exceed their allotted amounts. However, they can supplmenet that pool through trades.

Rayner Arias had a promising pro debut in the Dominican Summer League in 2023, posting a 1.333 OPS with four home runs and 21 RBI in 76 plate appearances. However, he sustained a broken wrist that ended his season prematurely.

Since then, the right-handed bat has been slowed by injuries. This included a sprained wrist that limited him to just 25 games in the Arizona Complex League in 2024. He slumped to .735 OPS with zero home runs and 16 RBI in 105 plate appearances. There is a good chance that the wrist ailment sapped him of his power.

It was more of the same for Arias in 2025, as he registered a .625 OPS with three home runs and 20 RBI in 208 plate appearances split across two lower affiliates. This includes a stint with the San Jose Giants, where he tallied one hit in 25 at-bats.

Despite the subpar production, MLB Pipeline likes the power upside combined with the defensive prowess:

"The Dominican native [Arias] stands out for his plus raw right-handed power. It hasn't shown up in games yet, and he's struck out more than you'd like, although it's hard to tell how much of that had to do with multiple wrist injuries. Staying healthy will be a big first step, but he has big offensive potential with a chance to stick in center if it all comes together."

MLB Pipeline on Rayner Arias

As mentioned above, the key will be for Arias to stay healthy and produce. He has appeared in parts of two seasons in the ACL, and is likely slated to begin the 2026 season back in Arizona. With a strong spring training, he could make the jump to Low-A.

When Arias signed, he was lauded for his power potential and high baseball IQ. That showed up in his pro debut, but due in part to injuries, he has not found the consistency since then. It would be a nice surprise for the Giants if he took a developmental leap forward in 2026.