MLB insider sees SF Giants as obvious favorites for former Cy Young winner

The Corbin Burnes sweepstakes could be nearing a conclusion. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic sees the Toronto Blue Jays and SF Giants as the frontrunners while labeling the latter as the obvious favorites.

MLB insider sees SF Giants as obvious favorites for former Cy Young winner

Rosenthal recently joined the Foul Territory podcast to explain the fit between the Giants and Burnes:

"The thing I've heard in recent days is that he would prefer to return to the West Coast. He has a home in Arizona. He's from Bakersfield, California. He attended Saint Mary's in the Bay Area. West Coast guy. The Giants are the obvious favorites here. It is all lining up for them. The question is, do they want to pay him?"

Ken Rosenthal

Cost is a pretty significant factor. Burnes is the only frontline starter remaining on the market. He has seen Blake Snell land a five-year, $182 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Max Fried earn an eight-year, $218 pact with the New York Yankees.

Those two deals are templates that Burnes and his agent, Scott Boras, are leveraging in contract talks. Burnes is nearly a year younger than Fried, so is an eight-year deal out of the question? Not with the way this market has developed.

There is an obvious fit between the Giants and Burnes as Rosenthal outlines. The Giants have a need for starting pitching and the four-time All-Star is the best remaining arm on the market. Burnes is local to California and attended Saint Mary's College before being selected in the fourth round of the 2016 draft by the Milwaukee Brewers. His alma mater is only about 25 miles away from San Francisco.

There is a belief that Burnes would prefer to remain on the West Coast. The Giants have had to battle the perception of San Francisco in recent years with prospective free agents. It has not been common where they might hold the geographic advantage but this appears to be one case. After all, geography tends to be one of the more important qualitative factors free agents consider when making a move.

Plus, only so many teams can afford a player like Burnes. Some of those teams like the Yankees and Dodgers have already made a big move to the rotation. It is unlikely that either team has a second starting pitcher on their wish list at Burnes' level of the market.

The Boston Red Sox could be in the mix. They just added Garrett Crochet from the Chicago White Sox and are interested in a reunion with Nick Pivetta. I do not think the door is closed there but they also have other needs.

That leaves teams like the Blue Jays, Giants, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, and Los Angeles Angels. The Padres and Mariners do not have a need for starting pitcher with the latter considering a trade from the rotation to address the lineup.

The Angels are always somewhere in the mix. They have money to spend but have rarely been seriously connected to Burnes.

That leaves the Blue Jays and Giants. The Blue Jays are motivated to make a big move after missing out on Juan Soto. They also missed out on Soto and Shohei Ohtani last offseason. The desperation might be there to outbid the Giants.

Scott Boras likely will not leave a dollar on the table for Burnes. He is hired to get top dollar and is very good at doing so. So, even if the Giants are seen as the favorites with a geographic advantage, the door is still open for the Blue Jays or even a mystery team to sign Burnes.

This is a weird spot. It feels like the Giants-Burnes connection makes so much sense for both parties. However, the size of the contract is a substantial consideration and nothing is guaranteed until the contract is signed.