Luis Arraez contract prediction makes it clear SF Giants got him for a steal

One of the most fun players to watch for the SF Giants in 2026 was undoubtedly second baseman Luis Arraez. While some fans were not totally sold on him when the team signed him given his perceived defensive deficiencies and lack of power, he quickly won people over in San Francisco.

Now Arraez is a free agent and a recent contract prediction for him made by Keith Law of The Athletic makes it clear that the Giants really did get him for a steal by signing him to a one-year $12 million deal last offseason.

Law predicts that Arraez will get at least a four-year $100 million deal and thinks the total contract could end up being worth closer to $120 million. That is a pretty bold prediction especially since MLB Trade Rumors predicts he will get a three-year $48 million deal and Jim Bowden of The Athletic thinks he will get three years for $60 million.

That’s quite a bit of variance between those predictions and it speaks to the fact that there is still a lot of debate over just how much value Arraez brings to the table. The fact that he went from being seen as a defensive liability to now arguably being one of the better second baseman in MLB certainly increases his value, but he is still a contact bat in a league that typically prizes power.

Perhaps the fact that the Milwaukee Brewers, a team that did not rely on the long ball in 2026, won the World Series will lead to contact-oriented players being viewed differently. The Brewers made contact and putting the ball in play their identity and it resulted in a championship so maybe other teams out there will take note.

Would the Giants reunite with Luis Arraez?

Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey has talked about wanting San Francisco’s offensive identity to be more contact-oriented which is why the team signed Arraez, but could a reunion be in order?

Probably not especially if the market does decide Arraez is worth $25 million a year. San Francisco already has so much money committed to its infield and that money would be better spent on pitching. 

Maybe it would work if they decided to move Casey Schmitt to left field permanently to make room for Arraez at second, but I just can’t see them reuniting with him even though he was very popular in his brief time with the team.

The Giants will probably just be happy that they signed him to a great value contract and were able to trade him to the Philadelphia Phillies for a young pitcher they are high on in Ramon Marquez. He clearly deserves a raise after his strong 2026 though so one hopes a team does sign him to a nice multi-year deal so he can at least stay in one place for a while.

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