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Exploring the worst-case scenario for SF Giants after Rafael Devers trade

After making a big swing to trade for star Rafael Devers, let's examine the worst-case scenario if the trade does not work out for the SF Giants.
ByLevi Coovert|
Cleveland Guardians v San Francisco Giants
Cleveland Guardians v San Francisco Giants | Thearon W. Henderson/GettyImages

Rafael Devers has been a member of the SF Giant for three games. Three games down, 1,384 games to go. That's how long the Giants will have Devers under contract for, until the end of the 2033 season. That is a long time.

Hopefully, including nine potential playoff runs, Devers will appear in more than 1,384 games as a Giant. If he stays healthy and productive and can help the Giants win, the trade likely goes down as one of the biggest fleeces in MLB history and one of the more shocking.

Exploring the worst-case scenario for SF Giants after Rafael Devers trade

But what if it does not? What if Devers struggles in San Francisco? What if he is unable to break the Giants' nearly 20-year drought of having a 30-home-run hitter? What is the worst-case scenario for the Giants after trading for Rafael Devers? Let's break it down.

The worst-case scenario is clear. If Rafael Devers does not hit with the Giants, the deal becomes a colossal waste of money.

The Giants are responsible for over $250 million going to Devers over the next eight and a half years. That money is only worth paying if Devers hits like a star. That does not mean Devers needs to be elite every year, but he needs to be a productive hitter for at least the first four or five years of the contract for it to be worth it.

Worst-case scenario would be a steep and sudden fall off that renders Devers useless. He already has almost no value defensively or on the basepaths. He needs to hit to be valuable to San Francisco.

In this hypothetical worst-case scenario, Devers gets injured in the summer of 2025 and is out for the season. The Giants do not have him available for the postseason stretch, and either miss the playoffs or lose in the early rounds.

Devers returns in 2026, but does not look like himself. He hits 20 home runs, but his average and on-base percentage drop to career lows and he becomes a league-average designated hitter. The Giants try to recoup some defensive value by trying him out at first base, but Devers struggles to learn the position.

From there, Devers slows down more and more each season. By 2028, he is a below-average player. By 2030, it is no longer be justifiable for him to be in the lineup. The Giants are forced to cut their losses and release him, or package him in a lopsided trade, and likely still end up paying the majority of his final three seasons.

San Francisco fails to return to the postseason again after 2025 until the end of Devers' time there. Due to the money they have guaranteed to him and Willy Adames, they are unable to be competitive in future free agent classes. Wasted money leaves wins on the board, and San Francisco is left behind in the National League.

Meanwhile, the Red Sox successfully develop Kyle Harrison into a top-flight starting pitcher, and James Tibbs III develops into an All-Star level player for Boston. The Red Sox win the 2029 World Series with Harrison recording the win in game seven and Tibbs batting fifth just to rub some extra salt in the wound.

Of course, this scenario probably sounds highly unrealistic, and it probably is. But it goes to show that no matter how much the Giants believe in Devers, there is always a chance that this does not work out. For now, all we can do is cross our fingers and hope for the best.