ESPN stat expert lays out biggest problem plaguing SF Giants in 2026

Could the SF Giants be the most walk-averse team in baseball history? Paul Hembekides of ESPN makes the case that the offense might be on the wrong side of history.

For starters, the Giants have a 5.7 percent walk rate, which is the lowest in baseball by far. This has coincided with a leaguewide increase in walks to 9.4 percent, up from 8.4 percent just last year. The culprit for the spike has been the implementation of the ABS challenge system.

Triple-A has been using this system for a couple of years now and has seen similar results. Though, the high walk rates in the Pacific Coast League (PCL) are also due in part to pitchers trying to avoid contact altogether. The ball jumps in many PCL ballparks, so pitchers often pitch around the zone to avoid contact, which leads to higher walk rates.

The spike in walk rates has been present all around baseball, except for the Giants. Hembekides calculates the Giants' league-adjusted walk rate at 63, which is 37 percent below average. From a relative standpoint, this would make them the most walk-averse lineup since 1879.

The SF Giants offense is not instilling fear into opposing pitchers

There are a few reasons for this historically low walk rate. The Giants have the third-highest swing rate at 50.1 percent. They are swinging at just over half of the pitches they see. This includes a 33.1 percent chase rate, which is the fifth-highest in baseball.

The Giants are not only swinging a lot, but they are expanding the strike zone more than most teams. When they swing, they are also making a lot of contact. Their 78.6 percent contact rate is the fourth-highest rate in baseball.

That combination of aggressiveness and contact is usually going to lead to low walk rates, and that is exactly how it has played out for San Francisco. That is the downside to chasing contact. Buster Posey has wanted hitters to be the "aggressors" in the batter's box, and he is getting just that.

It is not just what they are doing in the batter's box, but how they are being pitched as well.
Hembekides points out that they are seeing more strikes than any team in baseball. That rate sits at 49.3 percent. This includes a league-leading 8.0 percent meatball rate, which is defined as pitches that land in the heart of the plate.

Hembekides speculates that this is a sign that pitchers do not fear facing the Giants' lineup. Through the first 50 games of the year, they have one of the worst offenses in baseball. There is a lot of truth to that.

There is also the fact that the lineup consists of players who do not walk at a high rate. Casey Schmitt, Luis Arráez, Jung Hoo Lee, Harrison Bader, and Heliot Ramos have generally posted low walk rates throughout their career. On the other hand, Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, and Willy Adames have seen their walk rates plummet in 2026.

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