Can the SF Giants stay under the luxury tax and have an A+ offseason?

As the SF Giants look forward to 2026, they have multiple holes to fill and a medium amount of payroll flexibility to fill them. As The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee notes, their six highest earners in Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, Jung-Hoo Lee, Logan Webb and Robbie Ray will combine for $137 million next year, and that’s not accounting for the $17 million signing bonus they still owe to current Dodger Blake Snell and two separate highly-paid managers.

As far as internal roster options are concerned, Brisbee believes they have around $147 million in obligations when you count cheaper options like Patrick Bailey, Heliot Ramos, and Landen Roupp who are locks to make the team next year.

Can SF Giants make improvements to roster despite luxury tax?

The league’s first luxury tax tier begins at $244 million next year, and since they reset their penalties by dipping under the tax in 2025, that means they’d have to pay a 20% penalty on every dollar spent over $244 million. Even though teams like the New York Mets and Los Angeles Dodgers regularly soar past this level, it can be expected that the Giants see that amount as more or less of a de facto salary cap until they are truly sure-fire World Series contenders.

With the $147 million owed to their internal options plus Snell’s signing bonus, that gives Posey and Minasian around $80 million to play with before they’d be butting up against the luxury tax. They need at least two starting pitchers and 2-3 relievers, as well as preferably an outfielder and a new backup catcher. If they shop on the high end for a big-ticket item like Kyle Tucker, for example, that would eat up about half of their spending money while only accounting for one of their 6-7 roster spots needing to be filled. So, what’s the best way the Giants can spread the money around this winter?

This thought exercise assumes that most free agents out there are ready and willing to take the Giants’ money, which hasn’t always proven to be the case.

Starting pitchers – Tatsuya Imai and Max Scherzer

Starting pitching is the area where the Giants have already come out and said a lot of their focus is going to be, so let’s assume that’s where a big portion of their spending money will be allocated. Imai would finally be the first Japanese phenom to not spurn the Giants’ advances and join the superteam in Los Angeles. With the success of so many other Japanese pitchers jumping to MLB lately, though, this is a train that every team in baseball will want to hop on. Imai is only 27, so he’s got age on his side, and results are on his side too – he put up a 1.92 ERA with 178 strikeouts in 163.2 NPB innings this year.

Since the Giants aren’t fits for the biggest name out of Japan this season, corner infielder Munetaka Murakami, they will be throwing a lot of their recruiting might out at Imai and hoping he’ll bite. Experts are expecting Imai will land somewhere between $150 and $200 million this offseason, which is a lot for someone who’s never thrown a pitch in the big leagues, but look at Yamamoto to see how that can work out. Let’s say Imai signs a six-year, $180 million deal that would be worth $30 million per season.

Another $14 million could be handed to future Hall-of-Famer Max Scherzer on a one-year deal. He’s coming off a $15.5 million season with the Blue Jays, but the results weren’t that great and he’s another year older, so a very modest pay decrease could be in order. The Giants would also have special appeal for Scherzer since they just put one of his best friends, new hire Tony Vitello, in the manager’s chair – not to mention the typical pitcher-friendliness of Oracle Park.

Relief pitchers – Devin Williams, Tyler and Taylor Rogers

Devin Williams is coming off a brutal year with the Yankees, but he was absolutely elite in his time with Milwaukee, putting up a 1.83 ERA with 68 career saves in his six seasons there. Williams would be wise to sign a one-year pillow contract in a pitcher-friendly environment like San Francisco, where he could re-enter the market next offseason and score a much bigger deal at that point. If Williams entertains the idea of a one-year contract, the Giants should have his agent’s number on speed dial, since they’re in desperate need of someone with lots of closing experience to make sure Ryan Walker stays far, far away from closing opportunities.

A reunion with Tyler Rogers to help secure the 8th inning makes too much sense not to happen, and there should be mutual interest in getting something done. Especially if the Giants were to go after his twin brother Taylor to solidify some low-leverage lefty innings as well. Breaking up the twins is probably the karmic reason behind the Giants’ second half woes, so Posey needs to rectify this mistake ASAP. Joey Lucchesi and Erik Miller are the top internal lefty options for the pen going into next year, so there’s room Taylor to compete with them in that department.

Outfielder – Trades for Masataka Yoshida and Jhonkensy Noel

These would be very imperfect additions for a lot of reasons, but they would also make a lot of sense. Yoshida is a clodhopper in left field, and was reportedly pretty unhappy about being made to DH a lot of the time by the Red Sox. He also doesn’t hit the ball out of the park (29 homers in 303 career games) and is coming off a career-worst season overall (88 wRC+ in just 55 games). Not to mention he’s owed $18 million in each of the next two seasons and is already 32 years old. Seems like the Giants should stay far away, no? Not necessarily.

Yoshida’s contract is underwater, so if the Red Sox want to move him, which it seems like they do, they’ll have to eat more than half of the money owed to him and shouldn’t expect to get any notable prospects in return – both good things for the Giants. Yoshida also doesn’t strike out much at all, with a very attractive 13% career K-rate, and he hit for a .285 average between 2023-24, so he could conceivably help out in those two areas where the Giants desperately need improvement. Trading for him might help their sales pitch to fellow countryman Imai, as well, and he’s former teammates with Devers who could further help him acclimate to the clubhouse.

Noel, like Yoshida, is coming off a below-average year and isn’t regarded as a good defender. He’s only 24, though, and he hits lefties better than he does righties – with power, too – so he could be an ideal platoon partner to help Yoshida and Gilbert sit down against lefties. He also comes with one of the best nicknames in baseball – “Big Christmas” – is under team control for five more seasons, and wouldn’t cost the Giants an arm and a leg in a trade. If the Giants trade for these two corner outfielders, though, what would they do with Heliot Ramos, you may ask?

Catcher – Trade for Iván Herrera

Herrera would cost a lot more in trade than Yoshida or Noel, but he also comes with a lot more upside. He was arguably the best hitter in the Cardinal lineup this year, even though most of his AB’s came from the DH spot. The Giants would be OK with a bat-first option to pair with defensive wizard Patrick Bailey, and they desperately need more bats that can tee off against lefty pitching, which Herrera does in spades. Herrera also won’t be eligible for arbitration until 2027, so it’s ok that the Giants blew through almost all their budget with the above moves.

Ramos would be one of the pieces going the other way in this hypothetical trade, though they would also have to part with one or two of their better pitching prospects to get the Cardinals’ attention. Pitchers have always been easier for the Giants to acquire via free agency than impact hitters, though, so a trade for a young impact hitter like Herrera should absolutely be something the Giants entertain.

In short, the Giants can definitely still have a solid offseason while staying underneath the luxury tax threshold. They may have to get creative, but they have enough wiggle room to make meaningful additions without breaking the bank.