Buster Posey, SF Giants seem unlikely to follow recent risky trend with top prospects

Around MLB, a trend is growing with how teams are handling top prospects. Whether it’s the Baltimore Orioles and Samuel Basallo, the Seattle Mariners and Colt Emerson, the Milwaukee Brewers and Cooper Pratt, or the Pittsburgh Pirates and Konnor Griffin, a growing number of teams are choosing to give high-dollar extensions to young prospects.

Don’t expect Buster Posey and the SF Giants to follow that trend, though. 

SF Giants probably will not follow trend of long-term contracts to prospects

Some of the figures are pretty striking for these young prospects. Basallo signed an eight-year, $67 million deal, Emerson signed an eight-year, $95 million contract, Pratt got eight years for $50.75 million, and Griffin is reportedly set to sign a nine-year, $140 million contract.

Keep in mind that Basallo is 21 and has played in less that 40 big league games. Emerson is 20 and has yet to even appear in the big leagues. Pratt is also 21 and Griffin is 19 and just made his MLB debut this past week.

Those are pretty absurd contracts to give to such young, unproven players. Who knows how any of those guys are going to pan out? 

Obviously, the thinking seems to be that if these guys live up to or exceed their potential, these deals will end up looking like a pittance compared to what they would make had they hit free agency at a normal date. But the flip side is that they end up being a bust and these contracts end up looking disastrous.

The only prospect the Giants might even be thinking about giving a contract like that to is Bryce Eldridge. While it would still be a big risk, he certainly has the most upside of any prospect in the organization.

Some thought he should make the team out of spring training but he did not hit consistently enough to warrant a spot on the team although he did finish strong. He’ll have to earn his way up through the minors.

But Posey seems unlikely to hand out a long-term contract to a player who has not yet proven he can play well at the big league level. As a former player himself, Posey has seen prospects come up and flame out or not live up to their potential.

While he has definitely been willing to take big risks as an executive, he’s taken them on players with a proven track record like Willy Adames and Rafael Devers. 

Maybe he will end up inking Eldridge to a long-term contract someday, but expect it to be after he has proven himself in the big leagues and not because it is the new faddish thing to do in MLB.