The Los Angeles Dodgers reportedly struck a deal to sign veteran lefty Yusei Kikuchi to a three-year, $63 million pact, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post. That price tag would seemingly put the SF Giants out of the next tier of top free-agent pitchers.
$63 million contract for starter likely prices SF Giants out of next tier of free agents
On the surface, that is a lot of money to commit to a pitcher with a 4.57 career ERA. However, free agency can at times be forgiving and forgetful.
It is not always a pitcher's track record but when you put your best foot forward. For Kikuchi, he was shipped to the Houston Astros at the trade deadline and had arguably the best stretch of his career in the final two months of the season.
Kikuchi posted a 2.70 ERA with 76 strikeouts against 14 walks in 60 innings following the trade to Houston. The biggest change he made was an increase in his slider usage and the results followed immediately.
The 33-year-old pitcher does not have the track record of Max Fried, Corbin Burnes, or Blake Snell. He would not be seeking the type of deal that a frontline starter would command.
However, he is in the next tier of free-agent pitchers along with Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Nathan Eovaldi. All of these pitchers are likely in the market for around $20 million annually and Kikuchi's deal sets the stage for that type of payday.
That is a steep cost but an investment that could be well worth it. The Giants have a need for rotation help. They have a skeleton of a rotation with Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, and Hayden Birdsong.
Really, they need to protect against exploiting the bullpen yet again in 2025. No team has gotten fewer innings out of the rotation than the Giants over the past two years. Conversely, no bullpen has handled a heavier workload than San Francisco.
The Giants could certainly address that need in the rotation by re-signing Snell. Perhaps, Max Fried and Corbin Burnes are out of the question after they rejected a qualifying offer from the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles, respectively.
The qualifying offer might only be one part of that equation but cost is an important factor as well. In the case of Snell, the qualifying offer is a non-issue at the very least.
If the Giants are operating within a budget, it is hard to see them committing the $30 million annually it could take to land one of Snell, Burnes, or Fried. Similarly, it is hard to envision them taking over $20 million per season to one pitcher from the next tier of free agents.
If we assume that they have in the neighborhood of $40 million to spend, then using half of that amount for one player given the roster's other holes feels like a suboptimal way to allocate the budget.
The Kikuchi deal is not all that surprising but it does set a pretty nice floor for some of the pitchers in his market. If the assumption is correct, then the Giants will likely be looking more for a bargain-based option to address the rotation.