2026 Steamer projection for reported SF Giants signing predicts regression

Earlier this week, the SF Giants reportedly added veteran hurler Adrian Houser. While he is coming off a career year on the mound, the 2026 Steamer projections are predicting that Houser will take a step back next season.

2026 Steamer projection for reported SF Giants signing predicts regression

When the Giants announce the signing, they will need to make a corresponding roster move. The Giants also signed reliever Jason Foley earlier this week. Joey Wiemer was designated for assignment to make room.

Houser is joining a unit that is led by Logan Webb, Robbie Ray, and Landen Roupp. Hayden Birdsong, Trevor McDonald, and Blade Tidwell will be among the young starters competing for a spot on the Opening Day rotation.

More than likely, the Giants will make one more addition to the rotation before the offseason concludes. Houser's deal is a two-year, $22 million pact. This includes a club option for a third season.

The right-handed pitcher fits the profile that the Giants have seemingly been targeting this offseason. He does not miss a lot of bats, but induces ground balls at an above-average rate. The Giants' pitching staff had a 45.3 percent ground ball rate in 2025, which was the third-best mark in baseball. Houser should bring more of the same for that category.

The 32-year-old pitcher is coming off a career-year, where he pitched to a 3.31 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.28 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, and a 2.42 SO/W rate in 21 starts split between the Chicago White Sox and Tampa Bay Rays. This includes a solid 48.9 percent ground ball rate.

Houser has rarely shown year-over-year consistency. Some years, he has been a solid arm in the back of the rotation. Other years, he has struggled to make an impact.

Fangraphs has published its Steamer projections for 2026 and it predicts that Houser's 2026 campaign while mirror some of the volatility he has displayed throughout his career. They project him to put up 4.34 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 6.54 K/9, and a 2.20 SO/W rate across 150 innings.

On a positive note, this projection has Houser setting a new career high in innings pitched. On a more pessimistic note, it has him taking a considerable step back from his strong 2025 season. It is more volume than upside with this projection and that is what the Giants are paying for.

If Houser pitches to this projection, he would would not raise the ceiling of a rotation that could use more upside outside of Logan Webb and Robbie Ray. That said, the Giants are hoping that Houser's improved performance is more sustainable, led by a notable uptick in fastball velocity in 2025.