SF Giants farm system: Updated top 31 prospect rankings

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
26. Patrick Bailey, C

Age: 22
Highest Level: High-A (Eugene)
Acquired: Draft (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

The public scouting community consensus seemed to view Patrick Bailey’s offensive profile as a poor man’s comp of Joey Bart heading into the 2020 draft. With a ceiling for his hit tool around 50 and power at 55, that probably ends up at 45/55. In the months after the SF Giants selected him with the 13th overall pick in last year’s draft, more industry insiders suggested he could become above-average across the board.

While fans were ready to see Bailey tear up the lower minors, he got off to an incredibly slow start at High-A Eugene and after one IL stint, was sent to Arizona to reset. In 33 games at High-A, Bailey hit .185/.290/.296. He did record an above-average 11.6% walk rate and a manageable 27.7% strikeout rate, but generated no significant power and struggled to elevate the ball.

After spending some time in Arizona, and appearing in a couple of games at the Arizona Complex League, Bailey was conservatively returned to full-season ball, this time at Low-A San Jose. For the first 20 games, Bailey’s uninspired performance continued. However, after another stint on the injured list, Bailey has finally found his groove, hitting .436/.488/.872 over his last ten games at San Jose with five doubles, four homers, and just six strikeouts.

It’s important to contextualize his overall performance. Even after his electric 10-game stretch, Bailey’s Low-A triple-slash is still slightly worse than fellow catching prospect Ricardo Genovés. Genovés is just two weeks older than Bailey and has done a far better job against High-A competition. Bailey could rebound in 2022, but he’ll have to produce for a more extended period of time to rank among the Giants top prospects.

Bailey’s ability behind the plate gets consistently rave reviews. He was the best defensive catcher in the 2020 draft class and while his focus has wavered at times this season, he has the tools to become an above-average defender.

Bailey had one of the most impressive batted-ball profiles of any college-hitting prospect in recent history. Even after an undeniably underwhelming first pro season, most evaluators still expect him to hit enough to have a big-league career. There’s still potential for him to pair above-average defense behind the plate with an offensive profile similar to Milton Bradley.