SF Giants farm system: Updated top 31 prospect rankings

The SF Giants farm system has been continuously rising since I wrote my first rankings back in 2019. My rankings this preseason featured the deepest group of prospects in the Giants system I had seen, but that was partially due to the lost 2020 minor-league season. As a result, there was a lot of uncertainty surrounding players up-and-down the list.

While I did not know what to expect coming into the season, 2021 hasn’t felt much different from previous minor-league campaigns. There have been some big risers and fallers throughout the system, but not to an abnormal degree. Player development is rarely a linear thing. A few prospects will take unexpected jumps while everyone faces a new set of challenges every season.

Prospects are ranked based on their future-value grade on the scouting 20-80 scale. A system’s talent is never evenly distributed. Just because someone is ranked one spot away from another, the grades are better indicators of how I classify players than their rankings. Here’s a breakdown of what the expected peak of a player with each grade looks like.

80: Top 5 player in MLB (8+ WAR per season at peak)
70: Top 10 player in MLB (5-8 WAR)
60: All-Star (3.5-5 WAR)
55: Above-average everyday player (2.5-3.5 WAR)
50: Everyday player (1.5-2.5 WAR)
45: Platoon player (0.5-1.5 WAR)
40: MLB backup (0.2-0.5 WAR)
35: Quad-A player (-0.2-0.2 WAR)
30: Triple-A player
25: Double-A player
20: Organizational player

Three important notes:

1. The grades are expected values. They reflect my attempt to quantify a prospect’s average potential outcome as a player, NOT their ceiling.

2. Some players will have grades with + signs next to them (40+, 45+, etc.). Probably 70-90% of top prospects in each organization fall somewhere from the 40-45 grades. So it gets difficult to differentiate prospect No. 11 from No. 23. Some 40-grade players are closer to moving up to a 45-grade than others. Hence, the plus. A strong half-season from a 45+ player will almost definitely jump them up to a 50 grade. Same with a 40+ player going to 45.

3. All splits numbers are courtesy of Baseball-Reference as of 8/31/2021. All batted-ball data is courtesy of FanGraphs as of 8/31/2021. Overall statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference as of 8/31/2021.

I’m only writing full reports on the SF Giants top 31 prospects, but I gave 42 players in the farm system a 40-grade. Here’s a quick synopsis of the 11 who just missed the list.

42. Matt Frisbee, RHP

An incredible start to the season at Double-A had him approaching the 45-grade tier before a promotion to Triple-A seemed to unravel everything. Hitters in the Triple-A West league teed off on Frisbee’s fastball, knocking 16 home runs in 53 innings. While he’s been better since returning to Double-A, he hasn’t shaken the long ball. He throws strikes and has a fringe-MLB arsenal, but is probably limited to a long-reliever role unless he develops another above-average offering.

41. Kai-Wei Teng, RHP

Teng’s scouting report has changed dramatically this season. Teng’s fastball experienced an unexpected velocity jump, beginning to sit in the mid-90s after working from 90-92 mph for most of his career. However, his previous advanced control dissipated. After a midseason suspension for the use of a foreign substance, his walk rate continued to spike. He’s transformed a fringey four-pitch mix into a more powerful fastball-breaking ball combo that has helped him record at least 10 punchouts in multiple starts this season. Teng may actually be on the verge of a breakout if he can combine his previous command with the recent jump in velocity, but that remains to be seen. For now, he’s striking out roughly one out of every three batters he faces alongside 47 walks and a 4.75 ERA across 77.2 innings at High-A.

40. Camilo Doval, RHP

Doval has elite closer upside. He works out of a funky three-quarters delivery that makes it difficult for hitters to pick up his already elite pitch arsenal, but could also make him particularly prone against left-handed pitchers. Command has always been the question surrounding Doval’s future, but his fastball velocity has even more consistently reached triple-digits this year.

39. Tristan Beck, RHP

Beck was one of the system’s best pitching prospects in the upper minors heading into the season but only made four starts at Richmond before missing a couple of months with an injury. Beck has a long injury history, including with his shoulder, so an undisclosed absence hurts his stock quite a bit. Beck’s curveball is a potential plus pitch, but his fastball velocity has fluctuated between the low-to-mid 90s and will ultimately determine whether Beck can be a back-end starter, reliever, or something more.

38. Diego Velasquez, INF

The only seven-figure signing from the Giants most recent IFA class, Velasquez began his professional career stateside in the Arizona Complex League. While he’s struggled mightily to impact the ball (.278 slugging percentage) against mostly older competition (he turns 18 in October), he’s also shown an impressive knack for putting the ball in play, striking out just 16 times in 129 plate appearances.

37. Sandro Fabian, OF

Fabian was one of the most exciting prospects in the Giants system just a couple of years, but injuries, struggles, and other breakout prospects have left him behind. Still, he has the potential to make contact, hit for power, and be an average defender in right field. He’s always shown a good ability to put the ball in play, but also has horrendously bad walk rates. Still, he’s hitting .262/.293/.464 with 13 home runs at Double-A this season at just 23 and I expect to see his name called in this winter’s Rule 5 draft.

36. David Villar, 3B

The Giants drafted Villar in the 11th round of the 2018 draft as a power-over-hit corner bat out of South Florida and he’s consistently lived up to that label since. After a solid, but unexceptional 2019 at High-A, Villar has taken a huge step forward in the pitcher-friendly environment at Double-A, blasting 18 homers and posting a .273/.372/.500 triple-slash in 95 games. He’s not excellent on the other side of the diamond but could be an average defender at third or first base. Still, he’s going to have to hit his way to the majors. Plenty of hitters have seen breakout seasons tempered by the Eastern League (now known as Double-A Northeast), but Villar is 24 with questions about his ability to make consistent contact going forward. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he one day became a passable everyday player, but looks more like a bench/platoon bat.

35. Esmerlin Vinicio, LHP

A complete projection IFA signing in 2019, Vinicio has an incredibly lanky 6’2’’ frame. The southpaw has already added some velocity and figures to add more to an already strong feel for a breaking ball. Vinicio has walked a bit too many batters to sneak onto the back of the top 31, but he’s racking up punchouts in Rookie Ball at 18. Assuming he gets challenged with a Low-A assignment next season, he could be a breakout candidate.

34. Blake Rivera, RHP

Rivera’s control and command have been spotty throughout his career, but some scouts see Rivera’s repeatable delivery and athletic frame (6’4”-225 lbs.) as signs that he could stick in the rotation. His fastball is a 65-grade pitch at its best and his curveball is a consistently plus pitch as well. He has a high upside as a starter, but a combination of an inconsistent changeup velocity leads most to believe he’s a future high-leverage arm. He was the 12th-best prospect in the system heading into the year but mysteriously didn’t pitch while he dealt with an undisclosed injury. He’s back in Eugene now and could be back in the org’s top-15 prospects with a strong finish at High-A, but every time a tweener between starting and relieving misses extended time, it only speeds up the clock towards a move to the pen.

33. Eric Silva, RHP

The Giants big-bonus fourth-round pick out of JSerra Catholic High School, Silva was a top-three round talent with a big arm that has already reached 97 mph with fast arm action. Silva is a great athlete, who played on the infield and was one of the best hitters in the JSerra lineup. The Giants player development team has had great success with several recently selected pitchers and Silva has plenty of tools to dream on even if he’s a bit rough around the edges.

32. Alexander Suarez, OF

Suarez has some similarities to prospects Alexander Canario and Luis Matos (his cousin). Suarez has the potential to hit for power with speed and above-average defense in center field. However, unlike Matos, Suarez struggles to make contact. In his stateside debut this year at the Arizona Complex League, Suarez has stolen 13 bases and hit .317/.381/.524 at just 19. However, his 58-to-6 strikeout-to-walk rate in 180 plate appearances exemplifies how much he has to refine his approach. Suarez will be 20 in 2022, and likely make his full-season debut at San Jose. He could stumble against more advanced pitching but has the tools to breakout.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
31. Armani Smith, OF

Age: 23
Highest Level: High-A
Acquired: Draft (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 40

Armani Smith has been one of my favorite sleepers in the system since he was drafted back in 2019. Like the SF Giants 2019 first-round pick Hunter Bishop, Smith struggled to consistently tap into his power potential until a swing change unlocked his bat his junior year. Smith was only scratching the surface of his power in college. If he continues optimizing his launch angle, he could become a big-league power threat.

Smith is a good athlete and probably has the range to handle right field but an arm that could push him to left. Unlikely to ever see time in center, though, his bat will have to carry him through the minors.

Smith began 2021 at Low-A, where he hit .339./365/.627 in 15 games and quickly forced his way to High-A. At Eugene, Smith has posted a productive .281/.349/.438 triple-slash, but has struck out in more than 30% of his plate appearances and generated just under 13 homers per 500 plate appearances.

Smith was young for his draft class when the Giants selected him in the seventh round, but he is 23 now. He’s producing well at High-A, even if there are some underwhelming peripherals, but he’ll need to continue refining his swing and approach to reach his 20+ homer potential.

While it could prevent Smith from becoming an everyday player, he’s exhibited some massive platoon splits early in his career. In 103 career plate appearances against left-handed pitchers, Smith has hit .376/.437/.731 with 16 extra-base hits, including six home runs. He has managed a much more pedestrian .278/.340/.398 line against same-sided pitchers. Smith’s pro sample is relatively small, but he’s beginning to look like a potential lefty-mashing corner outfielder.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
30. R.J. Dabovich, RHP

Age: 22
Highest Level: Double-A (Richmond)
Acquired: Draft (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 40

A below-slot signing in the fourth-round of last year’s draft, R.J. Dabovich is a powerful right-handed pitcher with a high-90s fastball that plays up due to elite spin and a highly efficient breaking ball. After the SF Giants traded Caleb Kilian at this year’s MLB trade deadline, Dabovich is the clear front-runner to be the first player drafted by amateur scouting director Michael Holmes to reach the Giants big-league roster.

Dabovich struggled with command as a swingman at Arizona State before he was permanently moved to the bullpen heading into the 2020 season. Dabovich’s walks remained high, but his stuff played up enough to be effective as the Sun Devils closer before the COVID-19 pandemic ended his final collegiate season.

Dabovich overpowered opponents at the beginning of this year at High-A. After striking out an absurd 60.9% of the batters he faced in 12.2 innings of work, the Giants promoted him to Double-A. He remains the only member of the team’s 2020 draft class to reach Richmond.

While his command is still well below-average, Dabovich’s arsenal continued to find success against more advanced competition. In 15 appearances at Double-A, Dabovich generated an elite 39.7% strikeout rate and cut his walks to a career-low 11.1% before he was placed on the IL with a pulled lat. A relatively minor injury, he should be able to return before the minor-league season ends.

Even if not, though, Dabovich has done enough to earn an invitation to MLB spring training in 2022. Dabovich has one of the most obvious high-leverage profiles in the Giants system. His command could prevent him from becoming more than an erratic up-and-down middle reliever, but if it all comes together, Dabovich has the makings of an All-Star closer.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
29. Tyler Fitzgerald, INF

Age: 23
Highest Level: High-A (Eugene)
Acquired: Draft (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 40

While 2019 fourth-round pick Tyler Fitzgerald just missed my preseason SF Giants prospect rankings, he made my list of 15 system sleepers. Here’s what I wrote about him coming into the year:

“Tyler Fitzgerald projects with 45 or 50-grade tools across the board. A likely utility infielder with second-division starter upside, Fitzgerald does not seem like the type of prospect set to take the minor leagues by storm. Instead, the fourth-round selection in 2019 will likely post a respectable .275/.340/.420-esque triple-slash line. Still, sometimes we underrate the potential of “safe” prospects. If Fitzgerald could find another level of power, his strong plate discipline and defensive versatility could change how he’s viewed quite quickly.”

In his first full minor-league season, Fitzgerald has spent the year at High-A Eugene, where he’s been one of the most consistent power hitters in the league. In nearly 400 plate appearances, the Louisville alum is hitting .275/.354/.520 with 27 doubles and a league-leading 18 home runs. Needless to say, he’s far exceeded my expectations.

With that said, Fitzgerald’s swing does generate some significant swing-and-miss. Even while he’s older than the average player at High-A, Fitzgerald has still struck out in more than 30% of his plate appearances with a roughly league-average walk rate. The Giants new High-A affiliate in Eugene plays to loftier swings and has definitely aided Fitzgerald’s numbers. It’s hard to estimate how much of Fitzgerald’s power spike will play going forward until he goes up against better pitching. On the other hand, Fitzgerald’s lanky frame could add some bulk and potentially help his power continue developing as adjusts to upper-level pitching.

Defensively, Fitzgerald has played primarily at second base and probably profiles best moving around the infield than sticking at shortstop. There’s a path to him producing a 2013-2018 Brandon Crawford-like line at the plate with far worse defense but probably ends up relying on versatility and serving as a utility infielder.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
28. Nick Swiney, LHP

Age: 22
Highest Level: Low-A (San Jose)
Acquired: Draft (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 40

Coming into his final season at NC State last spring, Nick Swiney was an intriguing pop-up prospect, moving from the Wolfpack bullpen to rotation. The pandemic shortened season left evaluators just four official starts to work off of. He was undeniably dominant, striking out 42, walking just 6, posting a 1.29 ERA across 28 innings of work. The SF Giants were willing to bet on that breakout and selected him with the compensatory pick the team received when Madison Bumgarner signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Sadly, no one has gotten to see much of Swiney this year after he suffered a severe concussion. He slowly worked his way back to the field and is now back at Low-A (where he started the year), but Swiney seems like an obvious candidate for the Arizona Fall League. While he’s primarily faced younger competition at the Complex League and Low-A, Swiney has dominated, recording a 0.52 ERA with 34 strikeouts in 17.1 innings pitched.

The southpaw doesn’t have traditional overpowering stuff. His fastball has returned to sitting between 89-92 mph after bumping up to the low-90s last spring. His thin 6’3” frame could be a place to look for more velocity, but weight gain will probably be more necessary to handle the wear and tear of a full season than help him add velo.

His changeup and curveball are his best offerings. The breaking ball projects as above-average and gets some plus grades. However, he made substantial strides with his changeup heading into his junior season, and it has continued improving since he’s turned pro. With that said, Swiney’s command is notably behind his arsenal. While he flashed far better control in his final college season, Swiney’s walk rate has regressed this year, approaching 15%.

If it all comes together, Swiney has mid-rotation potential despite his low-velocity fastball. However, he’ll need to show that he can regain more consistent command of his pitches going forward. If he only develops average command, Swiney should be able to find success as a swingman or long-reliever.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
27. Ismael Munguia, OF

Age: 22
Highest Level: High-A (Eugene)
Acquired: IFA (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 40

Ismael Munguia might be the closest thing to a 21st-century rendition of Matty Alou. Munguia has an arguably unparalleled ability to put the ball in play and has consistently produced at the plate despite a slight 5’10’’-160 lbs. frame. In 304 plate appearances this year, Munguia has hit .319/.354/.468 with 15 stolen bases and just 21 strikeouts.

After hitting .286/.343/.376 at Augusta in 2019 at just 20, Munguia continued on to High-A Eugene, where he’s been a productive sparkplug at the top of their lineup. While Munguia’s power potential probably tops out around a 35 grade (50 is considered league-average), he has been making harder contact this season, producing the highest extra-base hit rate of his career and blasting seven home runs (he only had three prior to 2021).

Munguia has above-average speed and should be at least average defensively across the outfield, which should make him at least a valuable fourth outfielder. Eligible for the Rule 5 draft this offseason, Munguia could be an interesting candidate for a team eyeing outfield depth. The SF Giants will be hard-pressed to protect him given their 40-man roster crunch, but a rebuilding team could eye him to slot in at the back of their bench in 2022.

I’m always optimistic that a prospect with a truly elite ability can outperform expectations. While there are obvious limitations on Munguia’s ceiling, he does have enough similarities to Juan Pierre and Nori Aoki that there is a foreseeable path for him to find a larger role than expected if everything comes together.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
26. Patrick Bailey, C

Age: 22
Highest Level: High-A (Eugene)
Acquired: Draft (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

The public scouting community consensus seemed to view Patrick Bailey’s offensive profile as a poor man’s comp of Joey Bart heading into the 2020 draft. With a ceiling for his hit tool around 50 and power at 55, that probably ends up at 45/55. In the months after the SF Giants selected him with the 13th overall pick in last year’s draft, more industry insiders suggested he could become above-average across the board.

While fans were ready to see Bailey tear up the lower minors, he got off to an incredibly slow start at High-A Eugene and after one IL stint, was sent to Arizona to reset. In 33 games at High-A, Bailey hit .185/.290/.296. He did record an above-average 11.6% walk rate and a manageable 27.7% strikeout rate, but generated no significant power and struggled to elevate the ball.

After spending some time in Arizona, and appearing in a couple of games at the Arizona Complex League, Bailey was conservatively returned to full-season ball, this time at Low-A San Jose. For the first 20 games, Bailey’s uninspired performance continued. However, after another stint on the injured list, Bailey has finally found his groove, hitting .436/.488/.872 over his last ten games at San Jose with five doubles, four homers, and just six strikeouts.

It’s important to contextualize his overall performance. Even after his electric 10-game stretch, Bailey’s Low-A triple-slash is still slightly worse than fellow catching prospect Ricardo Genovés. Genovés is just two weeks older than Bailey and has done a far better job against High-A competition. Bailey could rebound in 2022, but he’ll have to produce for a more extended period of time to rank among the Giants top prospects.

Bailey’s ability behind the plate gets consistently rave reviews. He was the best defensive catcher in the 2020 draft class and while his focus has wavered at times this season, he has the tools to become an above-average defender.

Bailey had one of the most impressive batted-ball profiles of any college-hitting prospect in recent history. Even after an undeniably underwhelming first pro season, most evaluators still expect him to hit enough to have a big-league career. There’s still potential for him to pair above-average defense behind the plate with an offensive profile similar to Milton Bradley.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
25. Seth Corry, LHP

Age: 22
Highest Level: High-A (Eugene)
Acquired: Draft (2017)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

Seth Corry was one of the ten best prospects in the system heading into the year, but his inconsistent control derailed his season at High-A Eugene and led the SF Giants to bring him back to their complex in Arizona before he returned to High-A last week.

Corry has missed bats from the onset of his pro career, striking out roughly a batter per inning at each level. However, he tended to walk roughly a batter per inning as well. In his full-season debut in 2019, Corry had a great 2.58 ERA and accrued 69 strikeouts in just 45.1 innings, but he had also issued 36 walks. Then a mechanical adjustment allowed him to take off.

From the start of July to the end of the 2020 season, Corry made 11 starts. During that span, he posted a 0.99 ERA in 63.2 innings, struck out 86, and allowed just 16 free passes. He still struggled to keep his pitch counts down and work deep into games, but avoiding walks was a significant step forward.

Corry’s changeup generated a whiff rate of 46% in 2019, and it has the potential to be another above-average or better pitch. His fastball once sat in the low-90s, but has sat around 93 mph this season and generates above-average spin rates. His curveball, though, remains his best pitch, averaging over 2,600 RPMs and generating whiffs at an elite rate throughout his career.

Corry has always had a better handle locating his offspeed pitches than his fastball, which tends to be a better sign than the reverse. However, he was unable to locate any of his pitches with consistency this year at Eugene. Corry has struck out more than 30% of opposing batters in 61.1 innings pitched this season, but he’s also surrendered 61 walks and a 6.60 ERA.

Corry has the stuff to be a solid mid-rotation arm, but finding consistent mechanics will be pivotal. Questions about Corry’s ability to stick in the rotation have always followed him, and his erratic 2021 has done nothing to alleviate those concerns. As with many pitchers throughout professional baseball, he will go as far as his control can take him.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
24. Jaylin Davis, OF

Age: 27
Highest Level: MLB (SF)
Acquired: Trade (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

There may not be a more unproven 27-year old prospect with more upside than outfielder Jaylin Davis. Davis has always been a great athlete with potential plus power, but questions about his hit tool kept him off the top prospect radar before a swing change in 2019 sparked an incredible season.

Over 126 games in the minors in 2019, Davis slugged 36 home runs and posted a .306/.397/.590 line. He hammered 10 home runs in 27 games after he was acquired by the SF Giants at the 2019 MLB trade deadline and he received a late-season callup. While his season was cut short after getting hit on the hand, Davis recorded a sprint speed in the 97th percentile of all players, according to Baseball Savant.

Injuries have stalled Davis at various points throughout his career. His draft stock dipped after he injured his non-throwing shoulder in his final season at Appalachian State. He’s dealt with various knee injuries over the past two years and was recently placed on the 7-day IL after he was hit on the head by a pitch. As the Giants have continued finding productive big-league outfielders, Davis has been buried further and further on their depth chart. It’s important to note, though, that they have also kept him on their 40-man roster despite Zaidi’s tendency to churn the edges of the roster.

Davis is an above-average defender at all three outfield spots with plus range and an average arm. He has called centerfield his best defensive position, but the Giants have deployed him primarily in right. Still, even if his knee injuries have cost him some of his speed, he should be at least average defensively in all three spots.

At the plate, Davis consistently hits the ball hard and has a solid approach. However, his strikeouts have jumped as he’s prioritized elevating the ball. In 35 games at Triple-A in 2021, Davis has hit .246/.340/.557 with 11 home runs and a 32.1% strikeout rate.

Davis may ultimately be a Quad-A outfielder unable to tap into his hit tool enough to make an impact at the MLB level. However, he’s yet to receive an extended opportunity in the majors. In 103 career games at Triple-A, Davis has hit .303/.386/.658 with 36 home runs. That line will get him an opportunity somewhere even if the Giants eventually decide to move on.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
23. Luis Toribio, 1B/3B

Age: 20
Highest Level: Low-A (San Jose)
Acquired: IFA (2017)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

Luis Toribio has long been held in high regard by those within the SF Giants organization and while his profile as a bat-first corner infielder without huge power comes with high risk, some evaluators pound the table for Toribio’s potential to be an everyday player.

The Giants have said they believe Toribio has plus power potential, and if so, he may have a higher ceiling than most give him credit for. However, in his first professional experience at a full-season affiliate, Toribio has struggled to excel at Low-A. Toribio’s advanced eye has helped him work 52 walks in 79 games, but he’s failed to consistently drive the ball, recording a .234/.354/.365 line.

Toribio has some similarities to early-career Max Muncy, who struggled to tap into power despite an excellent approach, but while Muncy has become an impact player with the Los Angeles Dodgers, it took him until his late-20s to reach that potential.

Toribio has already maxed out his 6’1” frame and is a below-average runner. He’s limited defensively but has a strong arm and should stick at the hot corner if he can improve his glovework. He could move to second base (similarly to Wilmer Flores), but his arm remains the best part of his defensive profile, which obviously has less value on the other side of the diamond. Some think he’ll have to move to first base down the line, but assuming he sticks at third, he has fringe everyday potential. Otherwise, Toribio could be a limited bench bat.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
22. Kervin Castro, RHP

Age: 22
Highest Level: Triple-A (Sacramento)
Acquired: IFA (2015)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

A breakout performance at instructs last fall quickly shot Kervin Castro up my rankings. He showed a significant jump in velocity alongside more consistency after simplifying his arsenal. Even before his jump last year, Castro was the ace of the Salem-Keizer Volcanoes, posting a 2.66 ERA across 14 starts with 61 strikeouts and just 13 walks across 67.2 innings of work back in 2019.

Primed to start 2020 at full-season ball, fans will be left wondering if he was on the cusp of becoming a premium starting pitching prospect before the pandemic took that opportunity from him.

That counterfactual should not distract SF Giants fans from Castro’s elite high-leverage upside. After moving to the bullpen, Castro has been the best and youngest pitcher on the Sacramento River Cats pitching staff this year. He’s racked up 59 strikeouts against 21 walks over 43 innings with a 2.93 ERA in an extremely hitter-friendly environment. After allowing two runs in his first appearance in June, Castro has been absolutely dominant. In his last 19 appearances, Castro has 40 strikeouts, nine walks, and a 1.69 ERA in 32 innings.

His fastball now sits in the mid-90s and occasionally reaches 98 mph, but his curveball has taken an even larger step forward since shifting to shorter outings. His once loopy breaking ball has become more refined with sharper downward movement and now routinely looks like a plus offering. Assuming he maintains his jump in velocity, he should have two above-average or better pitches.

Given his youth and impressive performance at Triple-A, I’d like to see Castro get another opportunity to stick in the rotation. The Giants have already consistently stretched him out to 40-50 pitches, which could suggest they view him as a swingman long reliever. However, he has the command and pitch arsenal to be an impact high-leverage arm as well.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
21. Ricardo Genovés, C

Age: 22
Highest Level: High-A (Eugene)
Acquired: IFA (2015)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

Ricardo Genovés was seen as a potential plus defensive catcher with intriguing raw power when the SF Giants signed him during the 2015 international free agency period. He’s progressed slowly up the minor-league ranks since then but remains on that trajectory.

Just two weeks older than Patrick Bailey, Genovés started the season at Low-A San Jose in deference to the former first-round pick. However, after Genovés backed up a breakout 2019 season with a monstrous .338/.441/.551 triple-slash and Bailey collapsed at High-A, Genovés was promoted to Eugene.

Genovés and Bailey remain an interesting comparison. Bailey’s college resume exceeds almost anything Genovés has done up to this point, but Genovés has far exceeded Bailey against older pro competition. In fact, the biggest disparity between Genovés’ and Bailey’s performance in 2021 has tied back to exactly that. Both catchers have generated an OPS north of .900 against younger opposing pitchers. However, Bailey has hit just .201/.319/.310 against older counterparts while Genovés has generated a .276/.343/.449 triple-slash in those situations.

Known for his defensive prowess for much of his career, Genovés has hit some speed bumps transitioning to the newer catching techniques that have become doctrine in the Giants organization. Long known as an advanced defender, Genovés has shown some inconsistencies for the first time in his career, already accumulating 22 passed balls in 90 games.

With that said, Bailey has caught 33% fewer innings than Genovés and has made an equal number of errors (7) and amassed 12 passed balls. Most catchers take some time to adapt to the non-traditional techniques teams have been employing and everyone relearns habits at their own pace. Genovés has done everything else behind the plate exceptionally well, and he should become an above-average defender.

A lot is resting on Genovés’ defensive ability. Assuming he becomes comfortable with the new technique, he should have a future MLB career at least as a backup. If it all comes together at the plate, he has the potential to be a .240 hitter with 12-18 homer power, which should be good enough to be an average starting catcher.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
20. Sean Hjelle, RHP

Age: 24
Highest Level: Triple-A (Sacramento)
Acquired: Draft (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

Considered one of the most MLB-ready prospects in the 2018 draft, Sean Hjelle was one of the few “sure things” from a volatile SF Giants draft class. The towering seven-footer (he’s listed at 6’11”, but is actually 6’11.5”)  has a unique profile. Hjelle isn’t like other notably tall pitchers like Randy Johnson and Jon Rauch, who relied on premium velocity. Instead, he has shown excellent control and limited hard contact.

Hjelle projects to have four viable MLB offerings: a fastball, slider/cutter hybrid, curveball, and changeup. Depending on who you talk to, they all grade between fringe and average, with the exception of his curveball which should be an above-average pitch. None of his offerings project as plus, but his size adds a level of variability that could help them play up. We have never seen a pitcher like Hjelle before. That means big-league hitters will not have any experience facing someone like him either.

If he were an average height for a pitcher, he’d project like a right-handed version of Andrew Suarez—someone expected to move quickly with a shot to stick in the back of a rotation. Given the uniqueness of his delivery and the potential for him to add strength to his frame to increase his velocity, I believe he has more upside than most other prognosticators. However, he’s already reached Triple-A and that projection has yet to bear any fruit.

Hjelle began 2021 back at Double-A, where he struggled after a late-season promotion back in 2019. Hjelle quickly looked comfortable in the Richmond Flying Squirrels rotation and recorded a 3.14 ERA with 69 strikeouts and 19 walks across 65.2 innings pitched. The Giants have never hesitated to promote Hjelle aggressively, and they moved him up to Triple-A in August.

The Giants would love for Hjelle to force his way into their starting rotation, particularly as they have been depleted by injuries and COVID-19. Hjelle has completed at least five innings in all four of his starts at Triple-A and is inducing groundballs at a rate in line with his career numbers, but the righty has posted a 6.65 ERA with fewer strikeouts (9) than walks (13).

While Hjelle has all the pieces to be a big-league starter, he’s always performed dramatically better in the first three innings of his outings. Barring a significant improvement, Hjelle might find more success in a Yusmeiro Petit-like long reliever role than in the rotation.

He has to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason to avoid being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’ll likely return to Triple-A to begin 2022 and assuming he finds more consistent success, he should make his big-league debut at some point next season.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
19. Adrian Sugastey, C

Age: 19
Highest Level: Rookie (Arizona)
Acquired: IFA (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

Adrian Sugastey was one of the bigger names from the SF Giants 2019 IFA class, having played on the international circuit for the Panamanian U16 and U18 teams. His experience in high-level competition shows. When the Giants challenged him last fall with an invitation to their instructional camp in Arizona he quickly emerged as a leader among the mostly older players.

Sugastey’s thin 6’1’’ frame still needs time to mature, but he already has a propensity for contact and the potential to develop above-average power. His right-handed swing is a bit on the longer side, and will likely need to undergo some overhauls to generate consistent extra-base hits, but it has been good enough to generate a solid .339/.372/.413 triple-slash in Arizona. Defensively, Sugastey is a smooth receiver with an above-average arm for his age but is far from a finished product behind the plate.

Any teenager yet to make a full-season appearance comes with a great deal of risk. At the same time, that uncertainty comes with plenty of upside. He’ll likely begin next season at Low-A, where he’ll hopefully begin showing off his power potential more consistently. If he makes the necessary strides as a hitter, he could become an above-average everyday player, but if the power never develops, his defensive acumen and other intangibles position him to at least become a big-league backup.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
18. Manuel Mercedes, RHP

Age: 18
Highest Level: Rookie (Arizona)
Acquired: IFA (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

The SF Giants inked Manuel Mercedes for a $400,000 signing bonus in their 2019 IFA class, and he’s already emerged as one of the most electric arms in their organization. Less than two weeks older than Eric Silva, the Giants fourth-round pick in this year’s draft out of JSerra High School, Mercedes is already maintaining mid-90s velocity alongside feel for a changeup and a potentially plus slider. As is standard for young fireballers, Mercedes’ will have to improve his command significantly before becoming a top prospect, but he has the potential to be the best pitching prospect the Giants have had since Madison Bumgarner.

Mercedes has some room to fill in his sturdy 6’3’’ frame, but he already generates elite arm action from a three-quarters release point that is reminiscent of Camilo Doval. Like Doval and many tantalizing hard-throwers who have recently come through the Giants system, Mercedes hasn’t been able to turn his advanced arsenal into a dominant season.

Across 11 starts, Mercedes has recorded 50 strikeouts, 20 walks, and 44 hits across 46 innings pitched. His .352 BABIP and 62.7% LOB% both suggest he’s suffered from some bad luck, but those metrics are far less predictive in the lower minors, where hard contact can have a more consistent impact on BABIP.

Mercedes’ fastball plays a bit below its velocity due to some slight tailing action. While it will leave the young righty less room for error, it does appear to be helping him keep the ball on the ground. In a league where the majority of balls in play are in the air, Mercedes has generated a 60.4% groundball rate, which ranks second among 84 qualified pitchers. Fans should obviously hope that Mercedes becomes an elite ace, but a propensity to induce groundballs could help him become a mid-rotation arm, even if he never develops an overpowering arsenal.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
17. Brett Auerbach, C/IF/OF

Age: 23
Highest Level: High-A (Eugene)
Acquired: NDFA (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

Signed as a nondrafted free agent following a breakout 2020 spring at Alabama, Brett Auerbach looked like a versatile system player with a chance to eventually get a cup of coffee in the bigs. However, after a fantastic first professional season, every evaluator I spoke with at least expects him to become an up-and-down major leaguer. Many of them listed Auerbach among their favorite players in the system.

There is no one more versatile in the entire SF Giants organization than Auerbach. This season he’s appeared in 23 games at catcher, 39 on the infield, and nine in the outfield. The only reason he hasn’t played in the outfield more is due to the system’s incredible depth at the position. Despite his undersized 5’9’’ frame, he has the athleticism and arm to play all-around the diamond.

Auerbach’s defensive versatility was his calling card at Alabama, where he played every position except for shortstop and pitcher, but he’s taken his offensive game to another level as a pro. In 309 plate appearances this season between Low and High-A, Auerbach is hitting .294/.392/.538 with 14 home runs and 27 stolen bases.

On the older side for the lower minors, fans shouldn’t expect too much of Auerbach’s offensive production, particularly the power, to translate to the highest level. While his power output spiked after his early-season promotion, both his walk and strikeout rates have taken a significant step back.

Auerbach will pay a higher price to sell out for power as he moves through the minors and will have to rely on his hit tool becoming above-average or better to be an everyday player. Still, even if Auerbach never becomes a great hitter, his speed and versatility give him a clear path to becoming an even more dynamic Austin Barnes-style backup catcher.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
16. Will Wilson, Infielder

Age: 23
Highest Level: Double-A (Richmond)
Acquired: Trade (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

The Angels drafted Will Wilson in the first round of the 2019 MLB draft out of NC State. Wilson posted an underwhelming .275/.328/.439 triple-slash line even with substantial batted-ball luck (.343 BABIP) against younger competition in his first pro experience that summer. However, the SF Giants had scouted Wilson heavily leading up to the draft and jumped at the chance to acquire him in a trade the following offseason.

Wilson spent last summer at the Giants alternate site in Sacramento, where he focused on elevating more consistently. The Giants player development staff noted that Wilson hit the ball on the ground 2.5 times more often than in the air. Wilson has always recorded solid exit velocities and has above-average power potential. They believed a swing change could help unlock his bat.

Those adjustments have paid dividends this season. Wilson began the year at High-A Eugene and hit .251/.339/.497 with 14 doubles and 10 home runs in 49 games. While his groundball rates rose after a promotion to Double-A, they remain significantly lower than they were in college and with the Angels. With that said, Wilson has struggled in the pitcher-friendly Double-A Northeast, hitting .201/.297/.338 in 175 plate appearances.

Wilson looked particularly overmatched in his first month at Double-A, where he struck out in 52 of his first 137 plate appearances. However, he is trending upwards, hitting .382/.462/.706 over his last 10 games with just six strikeouts in 39 plate appearances.

After moving around the diamond at the alternate site last year, the Giants player development staff have let Wilson play almost exclusively shortstop this season. Assuming his hit and power tools reach league average, he’ll probably end up a starter at second base. However, if either one stall, Wilson might be limited to a platoon/utility role where he’ll have to rely on defensive versatility. He should be competent enough to play short on occasion and projects to be an average defender at second and third.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
15. Hunter Bishop, OF

Age: 23
Highest Level: High-A (Eugene)
Acquired: Draft (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

A borderline top-100 prospect in MLB heading into the year, Hunter Bishop’s scouting report remains virtually unchanged. However, unable to get on the field while dealing with a recurring shoulder injury, evaluators have virtually no more information about Bishop than they had at the beginning of the year. That added uncertainty knocked Bishop out of the organization’s top ten.

A Bay Area native, Bishop’s powerful 6’5”, 210-pound frame generates 70-grade power potential and flashes 60-grade speed, but it took a significant swing change heading into his junior year at Arizona State to finally perform like an elite prospect. He exploded out of the gate and finished his final collegiate season with a monstrous .347/.473/.765 line and 22 home runs. The SF Giants gambled on his upside and selected him with the 10th overall pick in that summer’s draft.

Bishop played center field in college, and his speed gives him the potential to stick there, but he likely profiles as a future left fielder with above-average range. Regardless, his hit tool will ultimately determine where he ends up. Before his breakout season, Bishop routinely struck out in over 30 percent of his plate appearances and struggled to tap into his power. He trimmed his strikeout rate considerably in 2019, but concerns remain.

His swing is reminiscent of Josh Hamilton, but I see a late-career Curtis Granderson, who posted back-to-back 40-homer seasons with elite walk rates and nearly 200 strikeouts a year as a more accurate model for Bishop’s upside. That would make for an above-average player wherever he lined up, but it would be an even bigger win for the organization if he could do it in center field.

Of course, Bishop has gotten just 56 plate appearances this season, with 32 of them coming at the Arizona Complex League during various attempts to return from his shoulder injuries. While he’s hit just .133/.286/.178 across that small sample, Bishop has received so few plate appearances during his professional career because of injuries and COVID-19 that I’m more concerned about getting him at-bats than anything else at this point.

Bishop has been out of the lineup at Low-A after finally making his return to full-season ball, suggesting he might have suffered another setback. Assuming he’s healthy, Bishop is a prime candidate to end up in the Arizona Fall League. He’ll probably struggle against the advanced pitching, but it would provide some desperately needed reps against pro pitching before he can hopefully stay on the field and show off his potential in 2022.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
14. Casey Schmitt, 3B

Age: 22
Highest Level: Low-A (San Jose)
Acquired: Draft (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

Casey Schmitt is one of the most intriguing prospects in the SF Giants organization. A second-round pick in last year’s draft, Schmitt has avoided strikeouts throughout his career, might already be a 60-grade defender at the hot corner, and has the potential to hit for power. However, he’s never been able to put it together into one breakout campaign.

Despite turning 22 in March of this year, the Giants were conservative with Schmitt’s assignment, sending him to Low-A. His season is likely over after he was hit by a pitch on the hand in early August, and he finished the year hitting an underwhelming .247/.318/.406 with a 7.9% walk rate and 15.7% strikeout rate. However, an abysmal .094 BABIP in May really held down his overall numbers. Since June 1st, Schmitt posted a much more respectable .292/.362/.454 line with 13 doubles and eight home runs in 207 plate appearances.

Schmitt was a two-way contributor at San Diego State, where he served as an everyday third baseman and high-leverage bullpen arm with a low-90s fastball and nasty splitter. His pitching prowess will be easy fodder for broadcasts down the line, but it also explains why most evaluators I spoke with weren’t too worried about his unexceptional performance at Low-A. The expectation is his bat will progress as he gets to focus on it.

Despite his elite glove, Schmitt is already a below-average runner and probably will not have much defensive versatility. That will put a lot of pressure on his offensive production.

His background as a pitcher could create some exciting fallback opportunities for Schmitt if his bat doesn’t quite justify a starting spot. A creative team might give him a shot to become a two-way player that might be able to generate 1-2 WAR throwing 35 innings and taking 200 plate appearances a season. However, the Giants clearly have higher hopes for him at this point.

Schmitt’s lack of power doesn’t come from an inability to elevate. Only 34.1% of his balls in play this year were on the ground. Instead, Schmitt tends to get a bit too lofty in his swing, hitting an infield pop-up on nearly 20% of his balls in play. One evaluator I spoke with was confident that he will eventually hit for power with time, but I lean towards Schmitt ending up more of a gap hitter, hitting .270 with 25 doubles and 10-15 home runs alongside elite defense if he develops into an everyday player.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
13. Matt Mikulski, LHP

Age: 22
Highest Level: NCAA (Fordham)
Acquired: Draft (2021)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

If it weren’t for MLB’s decision to condense the 2020 MLB draft to five rounds, Fordham southpaw Matt Mikulski would have surely been drafted at some point between rounds 4-10. Instead, Mikulski was passed over in the draft and opted to return to school for another season. An upgraded arsenal pushed Mikulski up boards and led him to be selected by the SF Giants in the second round this summer.

Mikulski spent the offseason bulking up and watching YouTube videos that helped him overhaul his delivery. After relying on deception for his first three years at Fordham to get batters out, Mikulski’s fastball jumped from the low to mid-90s and touched 98 mph, making him the hardest throwing lefty of this year’s draft class.

Of Mikulski’s three offspeed pitches, his slider and changeup are clearly his best, but neither project as plus pitches. Barring a significant change in pitch shape, his curveball will likely be left behind in pro ball, except as an occasional get-me-over pitch. Without any other clearly above-average offerings, there’s a lot of pressure on Mikulski’s fastball and command for him to remain a starter.

Mikulski’s new motion led to a breakout 2021 at Fordham, recording an elite 1.45 ERA with 124 strikeouts in just 68.1 innings pitched, but it still has some significant moving parts that will probably push him to the bullpen. Despite his dominance, Mikulski still posted a walk rate just over 10%. If he can corral his new velocity for strikes and continue developing his slider and changeup into league-average offerings, Mikulski could become a mid-rotation arm. However, given his deception and velocity, he projects as a high-leverage arm.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
12. Prelander Berroa, RHP

Age: 21
Highest Level: Low-A (San Jose)
Acquired: Trade (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

The SF Giants acquired Jaylin Davis, Kai-Wei Teng, and Prelander Berroa in a trade with the Minnesota Twins at the 2019 MLB trade deadline. While Davis and Teng garnered more attention with strong conclusions to the 2019 season, Berroa’s breakout 2021 has made him the best prospect of the bunch.

Berroa has recorded a 3.05 ERA, 119 strikeouts, and 43 walks, in 85.2 innings at Low-A this season, but was absolutely dominant during a 10-start stretch spanning nearly all of June and July. Across 46.2 innings, Berroa posted a 1.93 ERA and racked up 68 strikeouts against 16 walks. It was easily his best stretch as a pro but still came with plenty of long innings and some struggles working deep into games.

Berroa has long been on scouts’ radar with an impressive arsenal. At his best, Berroa features a fastball that sits between 94-96 mph and has touched 98, a mid-80s power curveball, and an 88-91 mph changeup. All of his pitches complement each other well and he might have the best three-pitch mix of anyone in the organization. However, Berroa’s well below-average command will have to come a long way for him to become an impact starting pitcher in the major leagues.

In his four professional seasons, Berroa has never surrendered walks against fewer than 10% of opposing hitters. Still, he’s roughly the age of a college prospect from this year’s draft class and is striking out roughly a third of the batters he’s facing at Low-A. If he can find consistency with just one of his off-speed pitches, he should be able to stick in the rotation. If he does have to move to the bullpen, Berroa has the stuff to be an elite high-leverage arm.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
11. Ryan Murphy, RHP

Age: 21
Highest Level: High-A (Eugene)
Acquired: Draft (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

Ryan Murphy was the final SF Giants pick in the 2020 draft and signed for a well-below slot $25,000 signing bonus, but after arguably the best statistical season from a minor league starting pitcher over the past decade, he’s become one of the best pitching prospects in the system. Murphy has made 20 starts between Low and High-A, recording a 2.61 ERA with a minor-league leading 156 strikeouts and just 26 walks in 103.1 innings pitched.

FanGraphs’ minor-league leaderboard only goes back to 2006, but over that time span, no one who has completed at least 100 minor-league innings has recorded a better strikeout rate than Murphy’s 38.6% mark. Of the 12 pitchers that have struck out at least 35% of opposing hitters while accruing at least 100 minor-league innings, Murphy has the third-best walk rate of the group.

Murphy’s elite strikeout and walk rates between Low and High-A have garnered plenty of attention, but it’s not uncommon for college pitchers with good command to overpower hitters in the lower minors. Murphy’s fastball sits around 92 mph and has strong characteristics that help it punch above its weight. He has a solid changeup and he’s reshaped his slider this season as well, but he lacks a putaway pitch. Murphy relies on an easy, repeatable delivery that helps him locate all of his pitches to be effective.

Murphy has done everything the Giants have asked of him thus far in his career and some in the organization believe he will be able to find another gear. Murphy’s strikeouts will almost assuredly decline as he progresses through the minors, but that’s not unique to him. Assuming he develops above-average command, he could become a competent back-end starter with mid-rotation upside if he finds a dominant secondary offering.

There’s an argument to rank Berroa, Mikulski, and Murphy in any order. Berroa has the nastiest arsenal, Murphy has the best command, and Mikulski (the only lefty) generates the most consistent deception. I leaned towards Berroa for the majority of the process, in part because he’s the youngest, but when I discovered how unprecedented Murphy’s minor league performance was, I ultimately gave him the top nod in this tightly packed trio.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
10. Aeverson Arteaga, SS

Age: 18
Highest Level: Rookie (Arizona)
Acquired: IFA (2019)
Future-Value Grade: 40+

I listed Aeverson Arteaga on my preseason list of unranked prospects that could crack the organizational top ten by 2022 and in the middle of his first minor league season he’s done just that. One of the best-regarded prospects in the SF Giants 2019-20 international free agent class, Arteaga has separated himself from the group with a strong pro debut at the Arizona Rookie League.

Arteaga got off to an explosive start to the season in Arizona, blasting seven home runs in his first 20 games, but his glove remains his carrying tool at this point. Even at 18, Arteaga looks incredibly comfortable on the infield dirt with an above-average arm. He should have no issues sticking at shortstop as he develops.

Offensively, Arteaga has a line drive approach that could develop some power as he matures, but most industry officials I spoke with are not buying into his power output this year. After his hot start, Arteaga hit .278/.362/.329 in a 24-game homerless drought before a blast on the final day of August. His walk and strikeout rates have been stable throughout both stretches and his overall .325/.398/.550 triple-slash is obviously impressive for someone his age. However, with the exception of generational talents like Luciano, it’s easier to trust evaluations of teenagers on the defensive side of the ball than at the plate.

Arteaga’s defensive ability should be strong enough to carve out a big-league career as a utility infielder even if his power never consistently plays in games. However, he has the potential to be a solid everyday player if he can develop an average hit tool and 10-15 homer power.

Arteaga will face a significant challenge in 2022 when the Giants likely send him to full-season ball. He could be the youngest player in the Low-A West league. If he produces offensively in his full-season debut, especially if he flashes power, Arteaga will get significant attention. Still, even if he struggles at the plate, Arteaga’s defensive ability and youth will keep him on prospect lists.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
9. Sammy Long, LHP

Age: 25
Highest Level: MLB
Acquired: Free Agency (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 45

This was my most significant deviation between myself and the industry folks I spoke with. The early feel-good story of spring training, minor-league free agent signing Sammy Long came into SF Giants camp touching 97 mph with his fastball alongside above-average secondaries. While the sample size was undeniably small, I put a 45-grade on Long heading into the season.

Having pursued post-baseball careers in 2018 before returning to pro baseball in 2019, Long had only thrown 128.2 innings in affiliate ball from 2017-2020. Presumably with his arm health in mind, the Giants have been exceptionally cautious with the lefty, capping his pitch counts around 65 until late June. Still, that didn’t stop him from dominating his way through the Giants minor league affiliates, recording a 1.95 ERA across 32.1 innings with a 40.2% strikeout rate.

Long made his big-league debut in June and has been oscillating between the Giants rotation, bullpen, and Triple-A since. He’s completed 38.1 innings and racked up 38 strikeouts against 13 walks in the majors, but struggled to limit runs with a 5.63 ERA. Yet even though he has struggled, I’ve liked what I’ve seen.

Every respected ERA estimator (3.67 FIP, 3.83 xERA, 4.13 digsERA, 4.17 SIERA, and 4.67 xFIP) is far higher on Long’s MLB performance than his surface-level stats. Baseball Savant calculates similarity scores for all big-league pitchers based on their pitch velocity and movement. Long’s five closest comparisons (Austin Gomber, Kolby Allard, Tyler Anderson, John Means, and Tarik Skubal) have each eclipsed 100 innings pitched and combined to record a 4.16 ERA with 8.4 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 this season.

His big 12-6 curveball remains his best pitch, inducing a .191 average and .291 slugging from big-league hitters, who are also whiffing against it on nearly 30% of their swings. Long’s fastball velocity has more comfortably sat between 90-94 mph since he’s been stretched out as a starter, and it’ll be a usable, but below-average pitch if he isn’t able to add velocity to it. However, while my colleague Wrenzie Regodon is quite low on Long’s relatively straight changeup, I believe it has the potential to be an above-average or plus offering.

While movement can obviously help any pitch, I’d argue the gap in velocity between a changeup and fastball and consistent arm action are more important to have an effective change. Long’s changeup doesn’t move much, but it has indecipherable arm action from his fastball and a greater than 12 mph gap in velocity. Long’s curveball is too good for opposing hitters to focus on his changeup, and thus far in his big-league career, opposing hitters are batting just .229 with a .302 slugging against the pitch. Most importantly, his changeup has the highest whiff rate in his arsenal.

After his dominant minor league performance, I bumped Long up to a 50-grade and actually had him as the highest-ranked pitcher in the system. If push came to shove, I still might choose Long over Harrison, but I make a point of integrating other evaluators’ opinions into my rankings. Regodon and Giants prospect writer Roger Munter both left Long outside of their midseason prospect rankings and that aligned with most of those within the industry I spoke to, who view Long as a potential multi-inning swingman or 7th-inning arm if his velocity kicks back up in a move to the bullpen (a 35+ or 40-grade prospect).

In my opinion, Long is already a 45-grade player with the potential to be a 55-grade starter if he finds a consistent fourth pitch (his slider has had some interesting flashes this year) or his fastball ticks up as he rebuilds his arm strength this offseason. Most likely, he ends up a solid four-starter, like Anderson. However, there is enough uncertainty around Long because of his limited track record that I opted to keep Long in the 45-grade tier.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
8. Diego Rincones, OF/DH

Age: 22
Highest Level: Double-A (Richmond)
Acquired: IFA (2015)
Future-Value Grade: 45

Diego Rincones has been an intriguing, but ancillary corner outfield prospect in the SF Giants system for some time. Most known for his elite arm and excellent bat-to-ball skills, Rincones seemed like a limited upside corner outfielder that might be able to platoon against left-handed pitching. However, Rincones has spent the last year mashing any opposing pitching he’s gone up against.

Rincones tore up the Venezuelan Winter League last offseason, hitting .342/.412/.513 in a league that featured dozens of current and former big leaguers. At 21, Rincones joined an esteemed group of prospects that had posted an OPS above .900 in the league prior to their 23rd birthday. His exceptional play earned the attention of the Venezuelan National Team, where he represented his homeland in Olympic qualifying earlier this year.

Working around his stint with the national team, Rincones has had one of the best offensive seasons in the system. After hitting .300/.385/.533 in 25 games at High-A Eugene, Rincones was promoted alongside Will Wilson to Richmond. While Wilson took some time to adjust to Double-A pitching, Rincones picked up right where he left off, putting up a .295/.365/.537 triple-slash nearly identical to his output at High-A.

Rincones is less than three months older than Heliot Ramos and nearly a year younger than Wilson but has easily been the most productive of the trio against Double-A pitching. Rincones is limited by the least defensive upside of the group, having already maxed out a fairly bulky frame, but it’s not out of the question that he becomes the best hitter of the trio.

While Rincones has handled right and left field well this season, there’s concern he’ll be limited to DHing in a couple of years if he doesn’t undergo a noticeable physical transformation. His elite arm makes right field a possibility in a smaller park, but his below-average speed will likely limit him to left field at Oracle Park.

Rincones isn’t a contact-oriented free swinger like former Giants prospect Miguel Gomez. While he’s maintained above-average strikeout rates throughout his career, he’s generally recorded average or better walk rates as well. His advanced approach leaves me optimistic that he’ll be selective enough to generate consistent power at the big-league level.

Given his production this season, Rincones will have to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason. If the Giants leave him off the roster, it’s almost assured that another team will select him in the Rule 5 draft.

Rincones’ power spike over the past year has come with a slight spike in his strikeouts, but Rincones still flashes a plus hit tool. Assuming he ends up a fringey defender, Rincones’ bat will have to carry him forward. He seems on a trajectory to hit .280 with 14-18 homers a year and the potential to crack .300 in years with some favorable batted-ball luck.

This could be just the beginning of Rincones’ power surge, though. He has hit homers at a pace of roughly 25 per 500 plate appearances this season, and that would easily be enough pop to justify a DH job. As the NL likely moves towards adopting the designated hitter, Rincones should have more opportunities to find an everyday role even if he can’t stick in the outfield. He’ll just need to continue building on a breakout 2021.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
7. Will Bednar, RHP

Age: 21
Highest Level: Rookie (Arizona)
Acquired: Draft (2021)
Future-Value Grade: 45+

Will Bednar was a notable riser throughout this year’s draft process. Aided by Mississippi State’s run to the national championship, Bednar helped lead the Bulldogs through the College World Series and was named the Most Outstanding Player of the tournament. He finished the year with 139 strikeouts across 92.1 innings pitched with 26 walks and a 3.12 ERA. Young for the draft class, turning 21 just a few weeks prior to the draft, and having already performed on one of the biggest stages in baseball, the SF Giants selected him with the 14th overall pick in the 2021 MLB draft.

Bednar’s fastball generally sits in the low-to-mid 90s and has touched 97 mph, but it has the characteristics that will help it play above its velocity. His slider is easily his best secondary offering, with sharp sweeping action that consistently left hitters flailing. His changeup remains unproven, but there is cautious optimism in the Giants organization that it’s further developed than many anticipate because Bednar did not have to go beyond his fastball and slider against most amateur hitters.

While many fans were disappointed the Giants passed on prep shortstop Kahlil Watson, those I spoke with around the industry were quite high on San Francisco’s class, particularly Bednar. Bednar’s slider is awfully close to already being a plus pitch and his fastball has that potential as well. Some organizations, particularly those that rely on pitch characteristic data, had Bednar ranked among the top-three college pitchers in the class.

Bednar is a good athlete and has an easy, repeatable delivery that should help him develop above-average or better command. Without a developed third pitch or any track record in the pros, Bednar’s projection comes with high variance and significant caveats. Assuming he isn’t forced to the bullpen down the line, where he could profile as a closer, Bednar projects to be a solid mid-rotation starter.

A lot has gone right since Farhan Zaidi was hired as the Giants president of baseball operations, but neither of the team’s first-round picks has had a breakout season. Both Hunter Bishop and Patrick Bailey are still good prospects, but neither has improved their stock since turning pro. Bednar will likely start next season at High-A Eugene and has the opportunity to turn that trend around with a strong campaign.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
6. Jairo Pomares, OF

Age: 21
Highest Level: High-A (Eugene)
Acquired: IFA (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 45+

Jairo Pomares was one of the three most notable SF Giants international free-agent signings in 2018 alongside Luis Matos and Marco Luciano. Luciano and Matos both had big-time potential, while Pomares was considered an advanced player who had played against high-level competition in Cuba with a much higher floor. After Matos and Luciano shot up rankings in 2019 and 2020, Pomares has followed suit with a breakout 2021 campaign.

Looking back, Pomares’ fantastic season shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise. Overshadowed by Luciano and the Giants 2019 draft picks, he never really got the praise he deserved following a fantastic 2019. Pomares hit .368/.410/.542 in rookie ball before struggling in Salem-Keizer after a late-season promotion.

In 2021, Pomares missed the start of the minor-league season and didn’t make his debut at San Jose until June 15th, but he quickly made up for the lost time. Pomares’ advanced feel for hitting immediately stood out against Low-A pitching, and a cavalcade of extra-base hits shot him up league leaderboards. After just 51 games, Pomares was hitting .372/.429/.693 with 22 doubles and 14 home runs. Needless to say, the Giants player development staff had seen enough and promoted him to High-A.

Pomares has adjusted to the competition in Eugene faster than Luciano, posting a .865 OPS through 13 games. However, his power output has regressed to roughly league-average output. Most industry evaluators are skeptical of Pomares becoming a legitimate power threat at the MLB level, crediting his incredible performance at Low-A to his advanced ability to hit overpowering the competition. Still, considered one of the purest hitters in the organization, most expect him to carve out a big-league role.

I differ from most of the evaluators I spoke to about Pomares, with a little more belief in his ability to one day hit for power and a little more concern about his hit tool. Pomares is still a hit-over-power player to me, but his swing-and-miss rates at Eugene and San Jose have both been below-average. He’s clearly hitting the ball hard, but I think a career BABIP north of .400 has led some to skate over a roughly 25% strikeout rate. A 25% strikeout rate is far from a major red flag given his youth, but it’s enough to make me hesitate to heap too much praise upon his hit tool. At the same time, I’m cautiously optimistic that Pomares will continue tapping into more power than once expected.

If Pomares develops how many expect, his walk and strikeout rates will continue to move in the right direction and create a contact-oriented corner outfielder, with Andrew Benintendi, Max Kepler, or maybe even Mike Yastrzemski as potential 95th percentile outcomes. However, he most likely ends up a secondary outfield piece.

With a bench role likely in his future, it’s worth keeping an eye on his splits. While Pomares has only had 37 plate appearances against southpaws this season, he has hit just .242 with a .303 slugging percentage and a 35% strikeout rate against lefties compared to a .385 average, .722 slugging, and 28% strikeout rate against righties. I could see Pomares easily following his current trajectory towards a Tyler Naquin-like outcome, playing the heavier side of a corner outfield platoon with a high-BABIP, low-walk .275/.330/.450 line.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
5. Joey Bart, C

Age: 24
Highest Level: MLB (SFG)
Acquired: Draft (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 45+

I was lower on Joey Bart relative to consensus leading up to the 2018 draft and over the past few years. I saw a lot of Mike Zunino in his profile and track record and thus far, he remains on that trajectory. I always saw Bart as a big-league contributor, but elite catchers are hard to come by. Elite power-first catchers are even rarer. Yet, that remains Bart’s only obvious path to stardom.

Bart was thrust into a difficult situation in 2020 when Buster Posey’s opt-out forced him to the big leagues well before he was ready. While the Georgia Tech alum flashed his power potential, he ultimately recorded a meager .609 OPS alongside some noticeable struggles defensively. Neither were too surprising given how unexpectedly he was called up to the majors, but it obviously put a lot of pressure on his Triple-A debut in 2021.

After his second consecutive great performance at big-league spring training, Bart became the primary catcher with the Sacramento River Cats and has performed quite well this season, hitting .311/.374/.519 with 10 home runs in just 53 games played. Defensively, Bart has had a few hiccups but generally rebounded well, throwing out 32% of opposing runners. He looks back on track to become an above-average defender. Still, I dropped him down from a 50-grade because I wanted to see some more significant improvements at the plate.

While Bart’s offensive numbers are very good, the context of the Triple-A West league matters. A notoriously hitter-friendly environment, Bart’s OPS and HR% rank sixth among players with at least 150 plate appearances just among his own teammates. At the same time, his strikeout and walk rates are both well below league average. Bart isn’t old for Triple-A but is close to three years older than Ramos. Questions about his hit tool have followed him since he was an amateur, and I’m still concerned it will impede him from ever generating the power some expect.

If he develops a league-average hit tool, he should be an impact player. However, it may just be a 30-grade tool at this point. A 40-grade hit tool should be enough for him to follow a Zunino-like trajectory, but that’s far from guaranteed.

Bart remains the heir apparent to Posey. With Curt Casali set to be a free agent at the end of the season, it makes perfect sense for Bart to step in as the primary backup while the SF Giants continue keeping Posey on a regimented rest schedule. As the NL likely adopts the designated hitter, that should become an easy way for the Giants to ease Bart into a full-time role. With that said, big-league ready catchers are hard to come by. If the Giants are willing to move Bart in a trade, multiple front offices will be willing to bet on his pedigree.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
4. Kyle Harrison, LHP

Age: 20
Highest Level: Low-A (San Jose)
Acquired: Draft (2020)
Future-Value Grade: 50

The SF Giants drafted Kyle Harrison with the 85th overall selection in last summer’s draft but paid him a lucrative $2.5MM signing bonus equivalent to the slot-value of a late first-round pick to forego his commitment to UCLA. If the 2020 draft was redone today, Harrison would probably be the first prep pitcher selected.

Harrison showed excellent ability to mix his pitches at local De La Salle High School with a potential plus curveball, average changeup, and low-90s fastball. His mechanics were somewhat inconsistent, and his arm got caught behind his body at times. However, he flashed mid-rotation upside.

Then, after the draft, Harrison bulked up and came into fall instructs consistently hitting the mid-90s and even touching 97 mph. By the time his first professional season rolled around, Harrison’s more traditional loopy curveball had been refined into a sharp slider alongside some improvements in the arm action on his changeup.

Assigned to Low-A San Jose in his first professional season, Harrison’s fastball has maintained velocity in the mid-90s for the entire season while his secondary pitches have continued developing as well. Harrison has racked up 129 strikeouts in just 82.2 innings pitched, but erratic control (46 walks and 12 hit batters) has prevented him from being as dominant as his stuff and strikeout rate might suggest. Still, Harrison’s 3.70 ERA is nothing to scoff at given his youth.

Young pitchers with strikeout stuff and iffy command come with significant risks and Harrison is no different. Following the 2019 season, Seth Corry’s scouting report read a lot like Harrison’s and he’s stalled this year at High-A. Still, just because pitching prospects have a high rate of attrition, it doesn’t mean that anyone should ignore Harrison overpowering pro hitters before his 20th birthday.

While Harrison’s body seems to already be maxed out, he already has the arsenal to be an ace. Granted, Harrison’s command would need to take some immense steps forward to reach that point. Assuming his control develops at a good, but more foreseeable, rate, Harrison profiles similarly to Blake Snell, who racks up strikeouts with ace-like flashes, but has been more of a mid-rotation arm due to inconsistent command.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
3. Heliot Ramos, OF

Age: 22
Highest Level: Triple-A (Sacramento)
Acquired: Draft (2017)
Future-Value Grade: 50

Since the SF Giants drafted Heliot Ramos in the first round of the 2017 MLB draft, he’s been one of the most difficult prospects for me to evaluate. It’s pretty easy to explain why.

The Reds drafted Matt McLain as a draft-eligible sophomore out of UCLA this summer with the 17th overall pick. A great athlete with experience at shortstop and center field, McLain profiles all-around the diamond with the potential to be an above-average hitter as well. He hit .333/.434/.579 this spring at UCLA with as many walks as strikeouts (34).

Ramos is a month younger than McLain and is holding his own with the Giants Triple-A affiliate.

In 2019, Ramos broke out at High-A San Jose. His early-season performance was one of the best in recent history for someone of his age at that level and came alongside increased walks and decreased punchouts. Ramos was promoted alongside Joey Bart and Sean Hjelle to Double-A Richmond. While Bart exploded in the Eastern League, Ramos’ performance failed to keep pace.

After an abysmal Arizona Fall League, Ramos spent 2020 at the alternate site in Sacramento before dominating at big-league spring training this year. Ramos’ fantastic performance had some wondering if he’d start the season at Triple-A, but the Giants were cautious with most of their assignments and conservatively sent Ramos back to Richmond.

His impressive spring training numbers failed to translate to the minor-league season, but Ramos held his own with .237/.323/.423 line alongside slightly improved strikeout and walk rates from his Double-A stint in 2019. At that point, the Giants gave him the call to Triple-A Sacramento, where he continued his solid play, hitting .263/.333/.412 in the far more hitter-friendly league.

Ramos’ minor-league career has been a story of alternating breakouts and down years. Ramos won’t turn 22 until September 7th and is already fitting in at the highest level of the minor leagues. While the Giants will probably go into 2022 expecting Ramos to play the full season at Triple-A, I would not be surprised if he forces their hand with a fantastic April and May. Ramos will already be on the 40-man roster since he has to be protected from the Rule 5 draft this offseason anyway.

He still has plus power potential but generates power more from his body than his hands, which forces him to commit to pitches earlier and exposes him to off-speed pitches and breaking balls. He’s strong enough to still produce above-average power without selling out, but that may ultimately keep him from becoming an All-Star.

Almost everyone I spoke to believes Ramos will be a useful big-league player. He has begun exhibiting some platoon splits, which might lead him towards an Austin Slater-like floor. He’s followed a similar trajectory to Blue Jays outfielder Randal Grichuk throughout his career, but Grichuk’s sold out to hit 25-30 home runs a year in a way I don’t see Ramos doing. Instead, I expect Ramos’ to land somewhere between Enrique Hernandez and Avisail Garcia at the plate, consistently generating 15-20 homers a year with a .260/.330/.460 triple-slash alongside passable defense in center field or above-average defense in a corner.

Yet, even then, given his performance and youth, I still wonder if Ramos has some hidden upside that we just aren’t seeing because he’s been so consistently challenged. Back in 2019, I wrote that Ramos had a ceiling around Yoenis Cespedes’ peak and that’s still plausible. While Cespedes was a far purer hitter than Ramos has been up to this point, Cespedes didn’t make his big-league debut until he was 26. It would obviously be towards the high end of possible outcomes for Ramos to end up hitting .280 with 30-homer power, but it’s far from unforeseeable given his rapid ascent through the minors.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
2. Luis Matos, CF

Age: 19
Current Level: Low-A (San Jose)
Acquired: IFA (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 55

I ranked Luis Matos the second-best prospect in the SF Giants system heading into the season and after his fantastic performance this year at San Jose, he’s emerged as the consensus pick right after Luciano. The more I talked to people around the industry last winter, the more I noticed that those who had seen Luis Matos the most were adamant he was a potential impact player. After getting his first extended look stateside, more scouts have seen him enough to become enamored with the young outfielder.

Matos had an excellent pro debut with the Giants Dominican Summer League affiliate back in 2019, hitting.367/.438/.566 with plenty of extra-base hits, stolen bases, and nearly as many walks as strikeouts. Most of that has carried into his full-season debut this year with the San Jose Giants. Matos is hitting .312/.344/.481 at Low-A this season with 28 doubles, 12 homers, and 20 stolen bases. His walk and strikeout rates have both gone in the wrong direction, where more advanced pitchers have taken advantage of his aggressive approach, but not set to turn 20 until next January, he has plenty of time to make the necessary adjustments.

Matos has excellent bat speed, a knack for putting the barrel on the ball, and above-average speed that plays on the basepaths and in the outfield. While he probably will never be an elite defender in center field, he shouldn’t be forced to move to a corner.

Matos is one of the most entertaining players in the organization to watch play. There’s a combination of joy and confidence that leads to an aggressiveness reminiscent of Javier Báez or Eric Byrnes. Whenever he reaches the big leagues, fans will love watching Matos play even if it makes them pull their hair out on occasion.

I’ve seen some rankings knock Matos all the way up to a 60-grade, on the same tier as Luciano, but I’m not there yet. I believe Matos has the potential to develop above-average power, but that would have to come with an even more significant improvement in his approach than it will already take to succeed against more advanced pitching. I’ve said Matos’ swing and all-around ability reminded me of Mookie Betts in the past, but his aggressive approach is more in line with Starling Marte. Either way, Matos has the potential to be as impactful as either one of those players. However, he has to make some massive adjustments to reach that ceiling.

For now, I see Matos producing at his peak around .280/.320/.430 with 30 doubles, 10-15 homers, and 15 steals a year alongside average or better defense in center field. However, if he becomes more selective with his swing choices, he has the potential to generate 60 extra-base hits in a season.

SF Giants prospects: Midseason 2021 rankings
1. Marco Luciano, SS

Age: 19
Highest Level: High-A (Eugene)
Acquired: IFA (2018)
Future-Value Grade: 60

Sometimes the least controversial opinion is absolutely the right one. While there are dozens of tantalizing prospects throughout the SF Giants farm system, no one eclipses the status of shortstop Marco Luciano as the best prospect in the organization. Scouts have seen 70-80 grade power potential in him since he was 15 alongside the plus hitting potential that could one day make him the best hitter on the planet. There’s a case to be made that no prospect in MLB has a higher ceiling, especially at the plate.

In Luciano’s two minor-league seasons, the story has been quite similar. In his first taste of professional ball in 2019, the Giants brought Luciano stateside for what was supposed to be a challenge in the Arizona Rookie League. In 47 games, Luciano bashed 10 home runs and posted a .322/.438/.616 line before a late-season promotion to Salem-Keizer where he recorded strong peripherals with limited production before a hamstring injury ended his season. Thus far in 2021, he has followed a similar arc.

Luciano began this season at Low-A San Jose, roughly two years younger than the average player in the league. After a slow start, Luciano heated up and quickly climbed the league’s leaderboards. By the time he was promoted to High-A, Luciano was hitting .278/.373/.556 with 18 home runs.

It’s been a struggle for Luciano since he arrived at Eugene, but nearly four years younger than the average player in the league, there’s not too much grounds for concerns. His strikeout rate has spiked above 40%, but his at-bats have been consistently improving since his arrival. I’ve yet to talk to anyone in the industry who expressed any doubts about Luciano’s ability to one day be at least be an above-average MLB hitter.

Defensively, scouts are far more split on where he will end up. While Luciano’s on the larger side for a shortstop and still has room to add weight, he has the arm to stick and took some major strides even without a minor-league season in 2020. Luciano has clearly prioritized trying to stay at shortstop and I’m willing to bet on him finding a way to remain there going forward.

Friend and fellow Giants prospect writer Roger Munter offhand mentioned current Giants slugger Kris Bryant as a potential outcome for Luciano, and I haven’t been able to find a better comp. Luciano has the frame, arm, and athleticism to move around the infield and outfield while hitting for average and power from a quiet and compact swing. As I mentioned earlier, I think he’ll be more viable at shortstop at least through his mid-20s, but given the mechanics of modern defense, that means less now than it did 10 years ago.

If you enjoy my SF Giants prospect content, stay tuned to Around the Foghorn and you can follow me on Twitter @maddelucchi.